DX
Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.07%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 47Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
13.11
Open
13.05
Day Range12.90 – 13.10
12.90
13.10
52W Range11.70 – 14.93
11.70
14.93
39% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
5.9M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
6.1x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.13%
Beta
0.68
Low vol
Performance
1D
-1.07%
5D
-2.55%
1M
-3.28%
3M
-7.69%
6M
-4.56%
YTD
-7.42%
1Y
+3.26%
Best: 1Y (+3.26%)Worst: 3M (-7.69%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +104% YoY · 100% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 6x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.1 (low) · FCF $0.92/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.97B
Revenue TTM$695.85M
Net Income TTM$241.78M
Free Cash Flow$184.31M
Gross Margin100.0%
Net Margin34.7%
Operating Margin129.4%
Return on Equity11.1%
Return on Assets1.0%
Debt / Equity7.73
Current Ratio0.06
EPS TTM$1.21
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net interest margin compression/expansion driven by yield curve shape and repo financing costs

Book value per share changes from mark-to-market adjustments on MBS portfolio and hedging instruments

Prepayment speeds on underlying mortgages (accelerating refinancing activity erodes premium amortization)

Federal Reserve monetary policy shifts affecting both asset yields and financing costs

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - While agency MBS have no credit risk, economic cycles affect prepayment behavior and mortgage origination volumes. Strong economic growth typically leads to higher rates and slower prepayments (beneficial), while recessions trigger Fed easing and refinancing waves (detrimental to premium-priced MBS). The business is less GDP-sensitive than equity REITs but more sensitive than triple-net lease REITs.

Interest Rates

Extremely high sensitivity to both the level and shape of interest rates. Rising short-term rates increase repo financing costs immediately, while asset yields adjust more slowly, compressing net interest margins. A steepening yield curve (wider 10Y-2Y spread) is highly favorable as it widens the borrowing-lending spread. Conversely, yield curve inversion devastates profitability. The company uses interest rate swaps and swaptions to hedge duration risk, but basis risk and hedge ineffectiveness create residual exposure. The 0.9x price/book ratio suggests the market is pricing in margin compression risk from the current rate environment.

Key Risks

Federal Reserve balance sheet normalization reducing agency MBS demand and widening spreads relative to Treasuries

Potential GSE reform or privatization of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac altering agency MBS market structure and liquidity

Secular decline in mortgage refinancing activity as homeowners locked into low rates from 2020-2021 reduce portfolio turnover

Investor Profile

dividend - Mortgage REITs attract income-focused investors seeking high dividend yields (implied by 175.6% operating margin reflecting spread income distribution). The 0.9x price/book ratio and 1.9% one-year return suggest value investors are cautious due to book value volatility. Not suitable for growth investors given the spread-based business model with limited organic growth potential. Recent 180.1% net income growth likely reflects mark-to-market gains rather than sustainable earnings power.

Watch on Earnings
10-Year Treasury yield (GS10) and 2-Year Treasury yield (GS2) as primary determinants of asset-liability spread10Y-2Y yield curve spread (T10Y2Y) - steepening is highly favorable for net interest margin expansion30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) - rising rates slow prepayments and improve portfolio economicsFederal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) - directly impacts repo financing costs through SOFR correlation
Health Radar
1 watch5 concern
15/100
Liquidity
0.06Concern
Leverage
7.73Concern
Coverage
1.7xConcern
ROE
11.1%Watch
ROIC
3.8%Concern
Cash
$930MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE13 analysts
HOLD
+23.4%upside to target
L $14.50
Med $16.00consensus
H $20.00
Buy
646%
Hold
646%
Sell
18%
6 Buy (46%)6 Hold (46%)1 Sell (8%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
0 of 5 signals bullish
1/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 47 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.06 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentSep 10, 2026
In 117 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 0.8%

-1.8% vs SMA 50 · -2.6% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI46.6
Neutral territory
MACD-0.02
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$14.93+15.1%
EMA 50
$13.39+3.2%
EMA 200
$13.16+1.4%
Current
$12.97
52W Low
$11.70-9.8%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$11.7039th %ile$14.93
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:0
Edge:+4 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)5.9M
Recent Vol (5D)
4.2M-28%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 2 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$112.1M
$91.8M$134.3M
$1.21
±25%
Low1
FY2024
$18.5M
$18.2M$18.9M
-83.5%-$0.44
±2%
Low2
FY2025
$218.4M
$214.6M$222.3M
+1078.1%$1.06
±2%
Low2
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryDX
Last 8Q
-33.7%avg beat
Beat 2 of 8 quartersMissed 6 Estimates rising
+37%
Q3'24
-134%
Q4'24
-74%
Q1'25
+43%
Q2'25
-55%
Q3'25
-43%
Q4'25
-42%
Q1'26
-1%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Credit SuisseOutperform
Jan 9
UPGRADE
Keefe, Bruyette & W…Outperform
Jun 8
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
5 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
Popenoe Smriti Laxm…Dir
$24K
Feb 27
BUY
Popenoe Smriti Laxm…Dir
$727
Sep 26
BUY
Popenoe Smriti Laxm…Dir
$51K
Sep 26
BUY
Colligan Robert SCFO and COO
$51K
Sep 26
BUY
Colligan Robert SEVP and CFO
$97K
Mar 14
BUY
Financials
Dividends15.73% yield
2 yrs of payments
Annual Yield15.73%
Monthly Div.$0.1700
Est. Annual / Share$2.04
FrequencyMonthly
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q2'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
16.1M
2
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
4.7M
3
STATE STREET CORP
4.5M
4
Qube Research & Technologies Ltd
3.7M
5
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC
2.8M
6
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
2.6M
7
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P.
2.4M
8
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.
2.1M
News & Activity

DX News

About

formed in 1988, dynex capital, inc. (nyse: dx) is an internally managed mortgage real estate investment trust (reit) that manages a diversified, high-quality, leveraged fixed-income portfolio. our goal is to manage these assets in a way that provides our shareholders with attractive, risk-adjusted returns over the long term.

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
CEO
Byron Boston
Smriti Laxman PopenoeCo-CEO, President & Director
Byron L. BostonCo-CEO & Chairman of the Board
Wayne E. BrockwellSenior Vice President & Portfolio Manager
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
DX
$12.97-1.07%$2.0B10.7+6775.9%5980.4%1500
$297.81-0.70%$798.0B14.1+330.7%2039.3%1503
$325.75+1.00%$624.4B28.0+1134.0%5014.5%1500
$494.20+0.87%$436.7B28.3+1641.6%4564.7%1490
$49.77-0.16%$353.2B11.4-45.1%1592.6%1495
$192.51-1.04%$303.6B16.6+1147.7%1466.4%1526
$948.47-2.11%$279.8B15.9-138.4%1373.0%1526
Sector avg-0.46%17.9+1549.5%3147.3%1506