EFC
Signal
Bullish Setup3
Price
1
Move+3.51%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume2.0× avgHeavy volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 58Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
13.11
Open
13.36
Day Range13.33 – 13.64
13.33
13.64
52W Range11.28 – 14.12
11.28
14.12
81% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
11.0x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.12%
Beta
0.80
Low vol
Performance
1D
+3.51%
5D
+2.42%
1M
+12.15%
3M
+4.38%
6M
-1.52%
YTD
-0.07%
1Y
+6.43%
Best: 1M (+12.15%)Worst: 6M (-1.52%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +78% YoY · 73% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 11x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.0 (low) · FCF negative
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.35B
Revenue TTM$506.18M
Net Income TTM$213.50M
Free Cash Flow-$925.46M
Gross Margin72.9%
Net Margin42.2%
Operating Margin43.5%
Return on Equity11.9%
Return on Assets1.1%
Debt / Equity0.00
Current Ratio0.00
EPS TTM$1.75
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Mortgage spread movements - agency MBS OAS versus Treasury yields and non-agency RMBS/CMBS credit spreads

Federal Reserve policy shifts affecting repo financing costs and MBS purchase/sale activity

Book value per share changes driven by mark-to-market on mortgage holdings and hedge effectiveness

Dividend sustainability signals - current yield sustainability depends on net interest margin maintenance

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Non-agency credit holdings are sensitive to employment levels and housing market health affecting mortgage performance. Agency MBS holdings are less cyclical but face prepayment risk. Commercial mortgage exposure links performance to office, retail, and multifamily property fundamentals. However, the hybrid portfolio provides some diversification across economic scenarios.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity to both rate levels and volatility. Rising rates compress book value through mark-to-market losses on fixed-rate assets despite hedging (basis risk between hedges and assets). Steepening yield curves can benefit net interest margins if short-term funding costs lag asset yield adjustments. The 8.8x leverage amplifies rate impacts. Inverted curves (negative T10Y2Y) pressure profitability by raising financing costs relative to asset yields. Current 0.7x price/book suggests market expects continued book value pressure.

Key Risks

Secular decline in agency MBS yields as Fed balance sheet normalization continues, compressing available spread over financing costs

Commercial real estate structural challenges (remote work impact on office, e-commerce pressure on retail) threatening CMBS credit performance

Regulatory changes to repo markets or REIT taxation affecting financing availability or dividend requirements

Investor Profile

dividend - Mortgage REITs attract income-focused investors seeking high current yields (typically 10-15%) despite book value volatility. The 0.7x price/book suggests value investors may be accumulating on distressed valuation, betting on book value stabilization. Not suitable for growth investors given structural yield compression challenges. Recent -7.5% quarterly performance indicates momentum investors are avoiding the sector.

Watch on Earnings
10-year Treasury yield (GS10) and mortgage rate spread to Treasuries - drives asset valuations and refinancing activity2-year Treasury yield (GS2) and Fed Funds rate - determines short-term financing costsYield curve slope (T10Y2Y) - positive spread supports net interest margin profitabilityHigh yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) as proxy for non-agency mortgage spread movements
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
42/100
Liquidity
0.00Concern
Leverage
0.00Strong
Coverage
0.7xConcern
ROE
11.9%Watch
ROIC
131.6%Strong
Cash
$202MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE12 analysts
BUY
-0.5%downside to target
L $13.00
Med $13.50consensus
H $14.00
Buy
1083%
Hold
217%
10 Buy (83%)2 Hold (17%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 58 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.00 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 8, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 5, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 20, 2026
In 105 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 5.0%

+7.8% vs SMA 50 · +2.4% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI57.5
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.23
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$14.12+4.1%
Current
$13.57
EMA 200
$13.10-3.5%
EMA 50
$12.85-5.3%
52W Low
$11.28-16.9%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$11.2881th %ile$14.12
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:6
Dist days:4
Edge:+2 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)914K
Recent Vol (5D)
1.1M+15%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$247.0M
$239.0M$255.7M
$0.67
±4%
Low2
FY2024
$317.0M
$306.8M$328.1M
+28.3%$1.41+109.8%
±3%
Moderate4
FY2025
$385.8M
$373.3M$399.3M
+21.7%$1.84+30.0%
±3%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 7 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryEFC
Last 8Q
+11.9%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates rising
-8%
Q3'24
+11%
Q4'24
+18%
Q1'25
+3%
Q2'25
+17%
Q3'25
+20%
Q4'25
+2%
Q1'26
+31%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
SVB LeerinkMarket Perform
May 16
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesMarket Perform
May 16
DOWNGRADE
BMO CapitalOutperform
May 16
UPGRADE
Wells FargoOverweight
May 16
UPGRADE
Keefe, Bruyette & W…Outperform
May 15
UPGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
1 Buy/5 SellsNet Selling
Simon Ronald IDir
$75K
Sep 11
BUY
Vranos Michael WCo-Chief Inves…
$175K
Oct 14
SELL
Vranos Michael WCo-Chief Inves…
$181K
Oct 15
SELL
Vranos Michael WCo-Chief Inves…
$72K
Jul 2
SELL
Vranos Michael WCo-Chief Inves…
$101K
Jun 14
SELL
Vranos Michael WCo-Chief Inves…
$101K
Jun 17
SELL
Financials
Dividends11.50% yield
2 yrs of payments
Annual Yield11.50%
Monthly Div.$0.1300
Est. Annual / Share$1.56
FrequencyMonthly
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
811K
2
UBS Group AG
644K
3
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
606K
4
Nuveen, LLC
220K
5
GraniteShares Advisors LLC
176K
6
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
101K
7
NORDEN GROUP LLC
72K
8
EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS, LLC
67K
News & Activity

EFC News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

ellington corp is an entertainment company located in p.o. box 218153, columbus, ohio, united states.

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
CEO
Laurence Penn
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
EFC
$13.57+3.51%$1.3B7.7+13904.2%2177.3%1500
$314.90+1.78%$834.5B14.9+330.7%2039.3%1504
$318.80-1.00%$617.3B27.4+1134.0%5014.5%1499
$491.89-1.04%$440.0B28.1+1641.6%4564.7%1489
$53.60+0.90%$377.0B12.3-45.1%1592.6%1503
$193.35+2.13%$300.4B16.7+1147.7%1466.4%1517
$937.35+2.01%$272.7B15.8-138.4%1373.0%1515
Sector avg+1.18%17.6+2567.8%2604.0%1504