New project awards and backlog growth, particularly large LNG, petrochemical, or infrastructure contracts exceeding $500M
Project execution performance and margin trajectory on existing backlog, especially resolution of legacy loss-making contracts
Energy capital expenditure cycles driven by oil/gas prices and energy transition investments in hydrogen, carbon capture, and renewables infrastructure
Government infrastructure spending and defense budget allocations affecting Mission Solutions segment
high - EPC demand is highly cyclical, tied to capital investment cycles in energy, chemicals, infrastructure, and mining. During expansions, clients greenlight multi-billion dollar projects; during downturns, projects are deferred or cancelled. Energy Solutions revenue correlates with oil/gas capex budgets (typically set at $60-70/bbl Brent breakevens). Infrastructure work depends on government fiscal stimulus and public works budgets. The 18-36 month lag between project award and revenue recognition creates visibility but also means downturns impact revenue with delay.
Rising rates negatively impact Fluor through multiple channels: (1) clients delay capital-intensive projects as hurdle rates increase and project IRRs compress, (2) infrastructure financing becomes more expensive, reducing municipal and PPP project viability, (3) working capital financing costs increase for both Fluor and clients, and (4) valuation multiples compress as investors rotate away from cyclical industrials. However, Fluor's 0.33 debt/equity ratio limits direct balance sheet impact from rate increases.
Energy transition risk: traditional oil/gas EPC demand may decline long-term as clients shift capex toward renewables and low-carbon technologies, though this creates offsetting opportunities in hydrogen, carbon capture, and renewable fuels infrastructure
Fixed-price contract risk: lump-sum contracts expose Fluor to cost overruns from labor inflation, supply chain disruptions, and scope changes. Recent losses demonstrate execution challenges, particularly on mega-projects exceeding $1B
Modularization and technology disruption: competitors adopting advanced modular construction and digital twins could erode Fluor's competitive position if the company fails to maintain technology leadership
value - The stock trades at 0.6x sales and 2.8x book despite negative current margins, attracting deep value investors betting on operational turnaround and margin normalization. Recent 35% rally suggests momentum investors are also participating on restructuring progress. Not suitable for income investors (no meaningful dividend) or growth investors (revenue declining 5% YoY). Attracts special situations investors focused on distressed industrials with asset value and turnaround potential.
Trend
-6.4% vs SMA 50 · -2.1% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $15.7B $15.2B–$16.5B | — | $2.30 | — | ±6% | Moderate4 |
FY2024 | $16.5B $15.9B–$17.4B | ▲ +5.0% | $2.60 | ▲ +12.9% | ±2% | High6 |
FY2025 | $15.7B $15.2B–$16.5B | ▼ -4.8% | $2.20 | ▼ -15.4% | ±3% | High6 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
FLR News
About
fluor is a global fortune 500 firm that designs and builds some of the world's most complex projects. the century-old company delivers engineering, procurement, fabrication, construction, maintenance and project management services worldwide. fluor serves clients in the energy, chemicals, government, industrial, infrastructure, mining and power market sectors. headquartered in irving, texas, fluor has 40,000 employees worldwide. the company consistently ranks on fortune magazine’s most admired companies list as well as ethisphere institute’s world’s most ethical companies list. in 2014, fluor was named one of the north america aon hewitt top companies for leaders.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FLR◀ | $44.36 | -2.48% | $6.2B | 21.4 | -497.1% | -32.9% | 1500 |
| $888.31 | +0.00% | $409.2B | — | — | — | 1526 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | — | — | — | 1488 | |
| $171.18 | +0.00% | $230.5B | — | — | — | 1486 | |
| $220.49 | +0.00% | $173.8B | — | — | — | 1502 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| $399.44 | +0.00% | $155.1B | — | — | — | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.78% | — | 21.8 | -194.9% | 1439.7% | 1502 |