Net interest margin expansion/compression driven by Fed policy and deposit beta (ability to lag deposit rate increases)
Commercial real estate loan growth and asset quality metrics in D.C. metro market - office vacancy rates particularly critical post-pandemic
Deposit growth and mix shift between non-interest bearing and interest-bearing accounts
Credit quality trends - non-performing loans, charge-offs, and provision expense relative to loan growth
moderate-to-high - Commercial real estate lending is inherently cyclical, with loan demand and asset quality tied to local economic conditions. D.C. metro benefits from stable federal government employment (30%+ of regional economy), providing downside protection, but office CRE exposure creates vulnerability to remote work trends. Consumer spending affects retail CRE tenants; business formation drives C&I loan demand. Recessions typically trigger 100-200bps increase in loan loss provisions.
High positive sensitivity to rising short-term rates through 2024-2025 cycle, but sensitivity diminishes as rates stabilize in 2026. Asset-sensitive balance sheet means loan yields reprice faster than deposit costs, expanding NIM when rates rise. However, inverted yield curve (2024-2025) compressed long-term loan pricing. As of Feb 2026, if Fed begins cutting, NIM faces compression risk unless deposit costs fall proportionally. Each 25bps Fed move impacts NIM by estimated 5-8bps with 1-2 quarter lag.
D.C. office market structural decline - remote work reducing office demand, with Class B/C properties facing 20-30% vacancy rates and refinancing challenges as 2024-2027 loan maturities hit
Regulatory burden disproportionately affects sub-$2B banks - compliance costs, capital requirements, and CECL accounting strain profitability relative to larger peers
Deposit franchise vulnerability to digital-first competitors and money market funds offering higher yields without relationship requirements
value - Trading at 1.1x tangible book value with 8.9% ROE attracts investors seeking regional bank recovery plays and potential M&A targets. The 33.7% one-year return reflects re-rating as rate environment stabilized. Dividend yield likely modest (estimated 1-2%) given capital retention needs. Not a growth story given market saturation and scale constraints, but offers mean reversion potential if NIM stabilizes and CRE fears subside.
Trend
-0.0% vs SMA 50 · +9.4% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $44.9M $44.5M–$45.3M | — | $0.25 | — | ±1% | Low1 |
FY2024 | $57.9M $57.1M–$58.7M | ▲ +28.9% | $0.92 | ▲ +268.1% | ±2% | Low1 |
FY2025 | $67.0M $66.8M–$67.2M | ▲ +15.6% | $1.20 | ▲ +30.4% | ±2% | Low2 |
Dividend per payment — last 4 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
FVCB News
About
welcome to fvcbank. opened in november 2007, our vision entails working with our shareholders, friends and neighbors to build a financial services organization that will focus on the northern virginia business community, its owners and employees. we believe our bank should do more than provide traditional banking products. one key strategy is focusing on helping people achieve their financial dreams, whether that's creating a fortune 500 company, planning for college educations, retirement or whatever that dream may be. by attracting top notch experienced bankers and combining their skills with state of the art technology, we will offer our customers high touch banking and products that will successfully compete with any other bank. in addition, by banking with us, your company will have an opportunity to become part of our e-directory. the first virginia community bank e-directory and marketing through our e-newsletter provides our customers an added marketing tool as part of their ba
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FVCB◀ | $15.31 | -1.54% | $276M | 11.8 | +936.8% | 1807.4% | 1500 |
| $297.81 | -0.70% | $798.0B | 14.1 | — | — | 1501 | |
| $325.75 | +1.00% | $624.4B | 28.0 | +1134.0% | 5014.5% | 1501 | |
| $494.20 | +0.87% | $436.7B | 28.3 | +1641.6% | 4564.7% | 1492 | |
| $49.77 | +0.00% | $353.2B | — | -45.1% | — | 1496 | |
| $192.51 | -1.04% | $303.6B | 16.6 | +1147.7% | 1466.4% | 1528 | |
| $948.47 | -2.11% | $279.8B | 15.9 | -138.4% | 1373.0% | 1524 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.50% | — | 19.1 | +779.4% | 2845.2% | 1506 |