US Navy shipbuilding budget and Columbia-class submarine program funding - drives defense revenue visibility
Refinery and petrochemical capital expenditure cycles - impacts energy equipment order intake
Order backlog announcements and book-to-bill ratios - leading indicators of revenue trajectory
Gross margin performance relative to material cost inflation and project execution efficiency
moderate - Defense revenue (40-50% of sales) provides counter-cyclical stability through multi-year Navy contracts insulated from GDP fluctuations. However, commercial energy and petrochemical equipment sales are cyclically sensitive to industrial capex spending, refinery utilization rates, and energy infrastructure investment. The mix creates partial insulation from recessions but limits upside in strong economic expansions compared to pure industrial cyclicals.
Rising rates have mixed impact. Higher rates increase financing costs for customers' large capital projects (refineries, chemical plants), potentially delaying equipment orders and extending sales cycles. However, defense contracts are less rate-sensitive. The company's minimal debt (0.08 D/E) limits direct interest expense impact. Valuation multiples compress with rising rates given current elevated EV/EBITDA of 35.7x.
Defense budget volatility and potential cuts to naval shipbuilding programs could significantly impact revenue given 40-50% defense exposure
Energy transition away from fossil fuels may reduce long-term demand for refinery and petrochemical processing equipment, though timeline extends decades
Small company scale ($200M revenue) limits R&D investment and competitive positioning against larger diversified equipment manufacturers
momentum - The 122% one-year return and accelerating growth (168% net income growth) attracts momentum investors chasing performance. However, elevated valuation (35.7x EV/EBITDA, 6.7x P/B) suggests speculative positioning. Small-cap defense exposure also attracts thematic investors focused on naval modernization. Value investors likely deterred by premium multiples despite improving fundamentals.
Trend
+22.3% vs SMA 50 · +57.8% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $187.9M $177.5M–$192.2M | — | $0.45 | — | ±5% | Low1 |
FY2025 | $206.2M $194.8M–$210.9M | ▲ +9.7% | $0.89 | ▲ +97.5% | ±5% | Low2 |
FY2026(current) | $238.1M $235.9M–$241.5M | ▲ +15.4% | $1.21 | ▲ +35.9% | ±11% | Moderate4 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
GHM News
About
Graham is a global business that designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. Energy markets include oil refining, cogeneration, and alternative power. For the defense industry, the Company's equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the U.S. Navy. Graham's global brand is built upon world-renowned engineering expertise in vacuum and heat transfer technology, responsive and flexible service and unsurpassed quality. Graham designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. Graham's equipment can also be found in other diverse applications such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. Graham's reach spans the globe and its equipment is installed in facilities from North and South America to Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GHM◀ | $98.28 | -0.53% | $1.1B | 72.4 | +1313.1% | 582.7% | 1500 |
| $888.31 | -3.47% | $409.2B | 43.7 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1523 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | 33.7 | +1848.2% | 1898.2% | 1489 | |
| $171.18 | -2.56% | $230.5B | 31.8 | +974.1% | 759.8% | 1488 | |
| $220.49 | -3.80% | $173.8B | 79.6 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1503 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1504 | |
| $399.44 | -2.12% | $155.1B | 38.9 | +1033.0% | 1489.7% | 1504 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.21% | — | 46.0 | +1307.7% | 1315.0% | 1502 |