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AI Earnings SummaryQ2 2026
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Earnings Call Transcripts

Q2 2026Earnings Conference Call

Operator : Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Galp's Second Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. I will now pass the floor to Joao Goncalves Pereira, Head of Investor Relations.

João Gonçalves Pereira : Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Galp's Second Quarter 2026 Q&A session. I'm joined today by our Co-CEOs, Maria Joao Carioca and Joao Marques da Silva as well as the full executive team. But before passing the mic for some quick opening remarks, let me start with our usual disclaimer. During today's session, we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current estimates. Actual results could differ due to factors outlined in our cautionary statements within the published materials. With this, Maria Joao, would you like to say a few words?

Maria Joao Carioca : Thank you, Joao, and good morning, everyone. During the second quarter, Galp continued to operate in what we know was a very highly volatile market environment. It is, therefore, rather reassuring to have a high-quality asset base that allows us to capture market tailwinds, sustain our financial performance and maintain net debt rather stable despite relevant cash outflows during the quarter. Acknowledging this continued market uncertainty, but also the strong operating performance in the first half of the year, we are updating our full year EBITDA guidance to circa EUR 4 billion and our operating cash flow guidance to EUR 3 billion. This guidance is based on an average Brent price of $70 per barrel and the refining margin of $10 for the second half of the year. Furthermore, the Board will propose a 10% increase to the 2026 dividend per share. This brings it to EUR 0.70, with the first advancement on this payment to take place in August. This reflects not only the strong results delivered so far in 2026, but also the Board's confidence in the resilience and quality of Galp's portfolio across the cycle. Testimony to this quality, our upstream portfolio continued to demonstrate outstanding performance. Legacy assets maintained very strong uptime levels, while the 3 producer wells at Bacalhau are successfully delivering on the expected ramp-up path and delivering also excellent productivity results. Looking at Namibia, our strategic partnership with TotalEnergies should be soon completed. And more importantly, we remain on track to drill a new well in the Mopane complex during the fourth quarter. Overall, we're making steady progress across all key milestones and further strengthening the visibility of Galp's rather unique upstream growth profile for the next decade. Joao, would you like to complement?

Joao Diogo da Silva : Thank you, Maria Joao. Indeed, this quarter demonstrates that Galp is executing with consistency across multiple fronts. While continuing to deliver strong financial performance, we are also making disciplined strategic decisions that are strengthening the quality of our portfolio and positioning the company for long-term value creation. Earlier today, we announced the acquisition of a new wind portfolio. This is a final step in reshaping our renewables business into a stronger and higher quality platform. The 361-megawatt fully operational portfolio in Spain builds on the acquisition we announced back in April. This takes our total renewable capacity to 2.7 gigawatts with wind now at about 30% of the mix and lifts our pro forma renewables EBITDA to roughly EUR 110 million for 2026. With this acquisition, our renewable portfolio gains greater scale, a better balance across technologies and increased resilience. It also gives us more flexibility and optionality as we evaluate future partnership opportunities and alternative ownership structures. In parallel, we are also making progress in downstream. Discussions with the shareholders of Moeve continue to move forward in a constructive way. All parties remain aligned on the strategic rationale and potential benefits of the transaction. By bringing our downstream activities together, we believe the combined business will be better positioned to unlock value, increase scale, strengthen its competitiveness and reinforce their strategic position. Our focus remains unchanged, ensuring that any transaction is the right one for Galp and its shareholders, delivering sustainable long-term value. To conclude, Galp delivered both strong financial results and strong strategic execution this quarter, a result of the continued commitment of our people and our partners. Together, we are building a stronger company, reshaping our portfolio and reinforcing Galp's distinctive investment case for the years ahead. We are now happy to take your questions. Operator, we can start the Q&A.

Operator : [Operator Instructions] And your first question today comes from the line of Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria : First one is just on the renewable portfolio. You've obviously made a move to hybridize that. So just a broad question of whether you see yourselves as owners of that portfolio longer term because it feels like this is the sort of final step to looking to sell down as you make it more robust. And then second question is on distributions. Raised the dividend, but no change in the buyback today. Even if I look at your macro assumptions, which look conservative, it looks like the buyback should be much higher. So I'm just wondering how you're thinking about the cadence of updating that guidance or whether you're just going to look to 2027 to top it up or that will be a 3Q event?

Joao Diogo da Silva : Thank you, Biraj. On your first one, I will leave the second one to Maria Joao. You know us quite well. So we've been managing actively our portfolio across Upstream, downstream and now renewables. So allow me to underline the strategic rationale on the wind transactions and the quality also of the acquired portfolios. For us, maintaining and diversifying the power generation is aligned with the strategy of maximizing the value of the volumes under management across the energy value chain. The recent wind acquisition just reinforces Galp portfolio, building a more -- a much more diversified and resilient portfolio with multi-technology rebalancing the risk return profile. Let me also emphasize on the energy management commercial angle, it will provide us access to a more stable generation source. It will unlock additional value in ancillary services and reduces the unitary imbalance cost for the entire portfolio. With the second wind acquisition, we have reached sufficient scale, as you say, the final step and diversification with no further acquisition target at this point. So we are now focused, as you also say, on the best options to optimize capital structure of such position in our power portfolio. Increasing scale and diversification will enhance us to be ready to pursue the partnership structures and increase the resilience of its cash flow generation. So in summary, the recent wind transactions strengthen Galp Integrated Power strategic positioning and increases flexibility to evaluate the strategic partnership opportunities towards ownership, financial structures, alternatives while retaining optionality in its exposure to the long-term growth of the Iberian power market. Maria Joao?

Maria Joao Carioca : Let me then follow up and pick up on your question on share buyback, Biraj. As Joao just signaled, we have a number of pieces moving in our portfolio. So touching upon the share buyback would actually go to a discussion on the distribution policy that we see is something that we would like to engage as we get more visibility on some of those moving parts. And of course, in particular, more visibility on what will be the final terms on Moeve. So we acknowledge that there may be potential adjustments to the policy. But for now, what we wanted to do was to make sure that we could signal the merits of what we see in our portfolio right now. So continued growth ahead of us. Bacalhau is ramping up nicely. Upstream continues to perform rather well. So what we see in the dividend component, and that's why we opted for the 10% increase. So let me remind you that normally, we will be increasing at 4%. This is us putting forward a 10% increase that actually raises the floor of our dividend. And with that, we believe that we're signaling trust and believe that we will be able to sustain growth throughout the cycle as we're raising this floor for our overall distributions. So overall, this is a signal on trust. It's always an acknowledgment that the first half of the year was a really positive one. It does not take us to the distribution policy discussion. We believe that one is to be had once we have more visibility, in particular of the Moeve deal. Thank you.

Operator : Our next question today comes from the line of Alejandro Vigil from Santander.

Alejandro Vigil : The first one is about the new guidance of EUR 4 billion EBITDA and EUR 3 billion operating cash flow. If you can go through these different levels to reach such a high level of operating cash flow in comparison with the EBITDA, so the high conversion of this EBITDA into cash. And the second question is about Brazil and the oil export taxes. If you can provide an update on the situation in the country and impacting your company?

Maria Joao Carioca : Thank you, Alejandro. So we're updating the guidance fundamentally on the back of what is our continued good performance. So you see there that we revised our Upstream guidance also in tandem. And this is bringing us fundamentally to the upper part of the interval we had guided to before. And remaining businesses, we're also seeing good indications. So we know that the context has been one of considerable volatility. But still, as that volatility flows through the balance sheet and our accounts, we see continued strong operational performance, hence, the revision of the overall EBITDA to EUR 4 billion, OCF now at EUR 3 billion. We do see that refining margin incorporated in the guidance is one that it has been probably the variable with the most volatility in recent weeks and times. So we're seeing spot prices well above what we included in our guidance. So we are guiding at numbers that are, you may say, relatively conservative. So $13 per barrel at refining margin, $80 on the Brent. So all in all, what we believe we can speak to here is maybe a little bit in terms of cash taxes. There's an element that can be further incorporated into the guidance as we normally see cash taxes on Upstream being treated, and we have them treated differently from taxes on downstream. So the high cash result is, to a large extent, reflecting the fact that cash taxes on downstream will be coming into our accounts in 2027, whilst the Upstream are already flowing through. So that informs a lot of the relationship you see between the cash result and the EBITDA. But overall, very strong operational performance, over 25% of our revised uptick on guidance is coming from operational performance. Of course, in this context and with all the volatility, the remaining 75% of the uptick in guidance is coming indeed from the macro. On Brazil, I think that was the second part of your cash -- of your question, sorry. So what we're seeing in Brazil is a continued concern about how to capture with fiscal policy, the current context. So we do see a continuation of the export tax. We have been seeking to optimize and make sure that our operational management of the circumstances delivers the best possible results. We have guided you for a total possible income that even though the time line for the tax has now been revised by the Brazilian government, we still expect overall impact to be around that order of magnitude. We had initially guided for EUR 70 million. So far -- for EUR 100 million, I'm sorry. So far, we are at -- in our accounts, you will find a little under EUR 20 million in cash. So you see that the impacts are actually being actively managed. And overall, we expect our initial estimates to remain. We do see this as something to watch attentively. We do hope that the Brazilian government -- we'll continue to understand that these are taxes that weigh down on our ability to continue future investments. We will be assessing all our options to protect value, and we will, of course, continue to do so in close association with other operators in the country. We continue to engage with the Brazilian Oil and Gas Association as we see this as an industry topic, not an account-specific topic. So overall, something to watch out closely. Impacts remain contained, and we continue to manage this very actively. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question today comes from the line of Joshua Stone from UBS.

Joshua Eliot Stone : Two questions, please. First, I wanted a clarification on the distributions. Is it your intention that you will still return at least 1/3 of your CFFO to shareholders? So regardless of the merger, we should expect distributions of more than EUR 1 billion this year if you hit your targets? Just a clarification on that one. And then secondly, on the renewables side of the business, are there any synergies connected with these wind assets and integration into your retail portfolio or commercial portfolio? And if so, could you walk us through, is there any impact with the Moeve merger on that part of the transaction?

Maria Joao Carioca : Thanks, Josh. Let me start with the distribution questions. So as you know, our current policy is for 1/3. We have the dividend component growing at a preannounced rate. So that rate, we revised it this year from 4% to 10%. So we do expect that value to be well known already and in advance. The remainder of our distribution is only communicated upon the publication of the results. So that is a number that we will be guiding on or that we'll be presenting only upon closing the results. All in all, we haven't touched on our distribution policy thus far precisely because, as I mentioned before, we do see that with the relative size of the Moeve transaction and with everything that's moving in our portfolio, we may need to discuss our distribution policy. But for now, we find that, that is too soon, and we are remaining within that overall distribution policy. Thank you.

Joao Diogo da Silva : Josh, on your second one, I'll go back to my previous comments on the energy management and commercial angles as this portfolio will give us additional access to a stable generation source. We will be converging in terms of prices, unlocking additional value. And in the power market, apart from the significant growth that we have -- we can see in Iberia with further potential coming for sure from AI technology, but also from increasing ancillary services sophistication. And let me state that ourselves, we are now a top-tier company in intraday trading in 2025 in Iberia. We are the #1 in solar and the #2 in wind. And finally, let me also emphasize the connection between gas and power, what we represent in Iberia today and how this can make all the sense within the decisions that we've just taken. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question comes from the line of Katherine O’Sullivan from Citi.

Kate O'Sullivan : So just again on -- coming back on this morning's wind acquisition and implied valuation around EUR 1.2 million per megawatt. So a bit above what you paid back in April for a slightly younger portfolio. So can you help us to understand the expected equity IRR there? I know you just talked a bit about value creation. And the follow-up on that, the average age of the assets is around 20 years. So how much of the value creation case is linked to repowering rather than the cash flows from the existing assets? And if you could discuss any repowering opportunity within these portfolios, any level of CapEx that would be associated?

Joao Diogo da Silva : Kate, so to your question, on both portfolios, we are, on both cases, below 1.2x per megawatt. We will have -- on the second portfolio, we will have no CapEx, no relevant CapEx in the short term. So this will be our short term -- our short-term focus will be on the cash generation. Of course, we will not leave aside any repowering opportunity, but that will come further ahead on the cycle. And that's -- well, on the high single-digit returns, that's where we are today. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question today comes from the line of Sasikanth Chilukuru from Jefferies.

Sasikanth Chilukuru : I had 2, please. The first was regarding the agreement and the discussions with Moeve. The macro conditions, especially in refining have changed materially since your announcement back in January. I was wondering if this has changed your discussions regarding valuations or the indicative shares that you've kind of highlighted previously in any form. The second question was related to the dividends to minority shareholders to Sinopec. First half dividends are EUR 39 million, very low compared to the EUR 240 million paid last year. And this comes as cash flows from the Upstream are -- have increased or are increasing materially. Just wanted to understand why these dividends to minorities are low? And how should we think about these dividends as we look into the second half and also into 2027?

Joao Diogo da Silva : Thank you, Sasi. And on your -- I will take the first one. Well, the Galp-Moeve transaction, it's a long-term value creation transaction. It will not be affected on the short term by the refining margins. All the discussions we are having are progressing well. Of course, the due diligence process, it's a complex one. But to your point, no interference, no discussions regarding the recent short-term refining margins. They were supportive on both sides, but not really impacting the decision. I pass to Maria Joao.

Maria Joao Carioca : Sasi, thank you for your questions. On the dividends to minority shareholders in Brazil, of course, what we -- if you look at our numbers last year, you'll see that same line had a higher volume to an extent we looked at the profile, and we also looked at the current taxation [Technical Difficulty] results. So we managed actively, and we put forward some of the dividend payments to make sure that we enjoy [Technical Difficulty] of fiscal status to those payments. And that is the fundamental driver behind this. There's no operational performance issues at all impacting this line. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question today on the line of Guilherme Levy from Morgan Stanley.

Guilherme Levy : Firstly, just going back to the shareholder remuneration discussion. Could I pick your brain about ways to remunerate the shareholder from here? How do you feel about specialty at this point to complete the 1/3 of CFFO policy vis-a-vis pure buybacks on top of the normal dividends? And then secondly, could you provide us an update on gas monetization and gas trading, perhaps an update on Venture Global volumes? How much of it is hedged at this point? But also in Brazil, could you talk a bit about how much of your production is currently being sold to Petrobras? How much is being sold to third parties? That would be great.

Maria Joao Carioca : Guilherme, I'll start with the distributions and then I think Joao will pick up on the gas trading. So what I've been mentioning today on the distributions is a lot, I guess, to a large extent, the way we've been thinking about this. So we look at our distributions policy very much through the cycle. And thus far, the 1/3 distribution rule has been a steady base on which we've been able to reflect our profile. So we are clearly a growth stock, not necessarily one that goes for the dividend yield alone. So thus far, this combination of having a 1/3 commitment on OCF, and I'll remind you that we have a distribution index to OCF, not free cash flow. So that also helps having visibility on how it is that we are connecting our distributions to our operational performance. But on this basis, so what we see right now is we do have a number of changes coming up in terms of how our profile and our results and EBITDA generation will evolve over the coming months. Visibility on those specific terms will be critical for us to then have a sound discussion on how we see this distribution policy moving forward. But the priorities remain the same, right? So we continue to aim to have a distribution policy that is, first and foremost, very reflective of our performance and our equity story. We, of course, keep track of how the industry is adjusting, and we aim to become and to continue to be competitive in terms of overall distributions. We also expect those distributions to be sustainable in the sense that we want to have a dividend floor that is stable, that is clear to all our shareholders through the cycle. And then we use share buybacks as the adjustment factor, if you like, whenever there is indeed a tailwind that allows us to have an additional distribution going on. So overall, we do expect our distribution policy to retain these aspects. We do see the portfolio as having continued performance to sustain a very competitive distribution policy. We will be looking into to whether the current design of that distribution policy is the best to continue to deliver on these objectives as we see fundamental movements in the portfolio. So no fundamental changes in the goals, willingness to adjust if moving portfolio requires a moving distribution policy, but now only once we have sufficient visibility. Thank you.

Joao Diogo da Silva : Guilherme, on your second one related with the gas. So first, just to highlight, we have no changes in our hedging strategy. We have 2026, 70% hedge. Venture Global is delivering according to plan. And Brazil, it's a regional play. We are acting on the wholesale side, increasing volumes, taking the benefit from our equity position, and that's all. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question comes from the line of Ignacio Doménech from JB Capital.

Ignacio Doménech : My first question is on your gas sourcing, okay, if I'm not mistaken, significant volumes from Algeria and Nigeria expire next year. So I was wondering what is your strategy and your ongoing conversations in terms of gas sourcing for the next year and how we should think on this going forward? You have more exposure to spot prices to long-term secured contracts? And my second question is regarding your strategy given the significant changes and optimization of the portfolio. I was wondering when would you be able to update the market on your longer-term strategy, if we could expect a Capital Markets Day in 2027. I would assume this is contingent to some of the ongoing partnerships. But if you could give us a time line, that would be helpful.

Joao Diogo da Silva : Ignacio, on your first one, so we will enjoy our gas portfolio as a diversified portfolio and highly competitive. So on your point, of course, we are interested on the North African contracts that we have. It's true that some of them will expire soon. We are having conversations on that, but no further update to give you. So that -- so only to reemphasize, we really enjoy our position in gas, and LNG trading and diversification and competitiveness are key for us, and we will try to keep those as a key factor to our position in the world markets. Thank you.

Maria Joao Carioca : So let me pick up on the second part of your question. If I understood correctly, you're wondering as to whether we'll have an updated strategy and a possible Capital Markets Day anytime soon. Ignacio, we're very focused on execution to be clear and to be honest. So we have the Web transaction ongoing. We have a number of movements to our portfolio, and that is clearly taking up our attention spend, so to say. And we feel that upon closure of those transactions, we will, in any case, have a lot more visibility and a lot more ground to have a clear communication. Now having said that, your challenge is a fair one. So we do acknowledge that an update and a consolidated [Technical Difficulty] could enhance market understanding. We are trying to make sure that we step in and give as much transparency and as much clarity on our strategic rationale as we move through our portfolio changes. And we believe that once we gain further visibility and we are further along this execution challenge that -- the set of execution challenges actually that we have, then we'll be in better conditions to communicate on the overall consolidated position and what this means in terms of full visibility for our strategic rationale and portfolio changes. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question today comes from the line of Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

Michele Della Vigna : Two questions on downstream. First, with refining, I was wondering, could you tell us what is your current state of margins and whether you have any major turnaround in the second half? Also, the HVO plant should start up relatively soon. I was wondering if you could update on the start-up timing there? And then secondly, on the Moeve joint venture, could you perhaps lay out what the remaining hurdles are to define that partnership and whether there is any early views of how much financial leverage those 2 entities, the marketing and the industrial one could take on when the joint venture is fully established?

Joao Diogo da Silva : Michele, so on a couple of ones on the first one. So the spot margins clearly above $30. Just reminding that as Maria Joao alluded, we are assuming 13 barrels -- $13 per barrel on our estimations. We have, let's call it, a small short downtime expected in September, but it's very, very, very minor. So we are keeping our throughput really high on between the 80% and 85%, and that's where we stay at this point. On the HVO H2 start-up, so we are -- we have construction ending by year-end and COD should be met next year, early next year. On the second one, so on the hurdles in Moeve, we -- well, that's a market standard. So on the retail side, we see a net debt to EBITDA between 3 and 4x. And on industrial, the ratio goes up 1x. That's where we are. At this point, complexities on the due diligence and nothing else but that. Thank you.

Operator : [Operator Instructions] And the next question today comes from the line of Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.

Paul Redman : My first question was just on CapEx. You guided to net CapEx '25 to '26, I think it was of EUR 0.8 billion a year. If my numbers are right, 2025 was EUR 100 million, 1H has been EUR 800 million. And then you've got the deal to complete, which would be another EUR 400 million. When I add all those up, I've not got much breathing room for the next couple of quarters on organic CapEx. Can you just talk me through that and whether we should be expecting any divestment proceeds to come in? And then my second question is, just to be really clear on the distribution program. there won't be any change to the EUR 250 million buybacks you're doing in 2026, the actual cash you're spending. The change will be for 2026 cash when you guide to a 1/3 of operating cash flow buyback for 2026 cash flow.

Maria Joao Carioca : Paul, so let me start with the last one because I think it's the easier one. No, we're not going to be touching upon the EUR 250 million in 2026. Fundamentally, that is the number that plugs into our distribution policy once we did the respective dividend distribution given the results in '25. okay? So no changes to that. The result for '25 is known. We published the share buyback number once we had the figure for '25 results. It's been ongoing. It's been executed at a relatively accelerated pace, but that's performed at arm's length by a financial institution that takes it away and execute it in the best way possible. So no changes to the total amount in 2026. As for CapEx breathing room for the next quarters, we do expect to land relatively close to what we had expected. We may come in a bit slightly above, but we don't expect any major deviations. We do have macro and a number of other elements pushing us forward. So we'll see how it actually lands, but I would not be signaling now on a major deviation from those numbers, if anything, slightly above. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question today comes from the line of Matt Lofting from JPMorgan.

Matthew Lofting : I just wanted to ask you for your thoughts. I mean, Galp has a strong history in pursuing and forming strategic partnerships in businesses and specific assets. When you look now at the ongoing processes that you've talked about with Moeve in the Upstream, but also referring a bit more to the merits of partnerships in renewables now as well. Can you just sort of summarize the fundamental differences perhaps that you see in what you're trying to optimize or unlock between those 2 businesses? And then Secondly, as the process is, if we assume advance, what sort of the key principles are for how Galp can best ensure an appropriate financial and governance framework for stakeholders in the future?

Joao Diogo da Silva : Matt, thank you for the question. So if in the Moeve -- Galp-Moeve deal, it's clearly a scale deal, a deal that has a lot of complementary assets on both sides, Portugal and Spain, clearly, a deal that will build a European platform on the industrial side, a deal that will clearly build on the network and on the retail side, a winning platform also to face the electric mobility CapEx. If we go to the renewable side, we are clearly looking at a much different kind of partnership. We need to look at the financial side of it, the structures that -- and the potential that we have to leverage these assets. So every time I mention what the returns that we are expecting, we are -- I remind you, we are speaking about unlevered assets. And so building a bigger scale platform also on renewables and benefiting from the integration that we have on the energy management through the cycle, it's really, really important. So clearly, 2 different animals. But on the renewable side, we clearly benefit to have a much more balanced portfolio after these 2 acquisitions to face that second step. Thank you.

Maria Joao Carioca : So Matt, if I understood the second part of your question correctly, you're fundamentally asking about how are we standing in terms of capital allocation priorities and how to communicate strategy moving forward. So on that, again, we continue to have moving parts in the portfolio that we believe play to an overall strategy of making sure that our capital allocation is consistent with our core businesses and our ability to deliver an equity story that is very much a growth story, hinging on the performance of our Upstream assets and their relative quality. So everything that we've been doing to clear up the portfolio speaks to this concern about making sure that we have the right capital allocation to each of the businesses, reflecting their performance and their growth profile. We expect to continue to do that. A lot of what we've been doing has been precisely about either derisking those assets and a lot of what you saw us doing in Upstream has been about that. So making sure that Namibia became a sufficiently derisked asset with a partner that clearly will be an asset in developing the basin as we move forward. When we look to downstream, again, the principle has been one of making sure that the assets have a situation and the context within our portfolio that speaks to partners that can take forward the transition story that needs to happen in those assets that we can do so in a way that ring-fences capital expenditures and gives full visibility into what is expected in terms of future performance and fundamentally future CapEx requirements whilst also giving us the ability to better explore the financing structure of those businesses. So giving us the ability to explore the opportunity to have further leverage on these businesses. So this is the story of what we've been doing, and I expect that to be the guideline moving forward as we continue to go through the portfolio. So same story, very mindful of capital allocation, but very aware of the different values and of the different drivers in our different businesses within the portfolio. Thank you.

Operator : Our next question comes from the line of Nash Cui from Barclays.

Naisheng Cui : Two, please. The first one is on production. You upgraded 2026 production guidance to around 130,000 barrels a day. Could you please talk about the drivers behind this upgrade? And could we see upside beyond this level? And then the second question is on refining margin. You mentioned earlier that spot margin is more than $30 per barrel and your assumption in the second half of the year is $10 per barrel, which seems conservative. I wonder if you could share your view on the margin outlook, please.

Maria Joao Carioca : Let me start with Upstream production. I think there are 2 fundamental drivers behind what we're seeing in terms of our guidance, our updated guidance for production. One is the fact that our legacy assets have been performing rather well. We've actually seen both a lot of commitment from Petrobras, our core partner in Brazil, in making sure that the maintenance and the ability to deliver from those assets, for instance, in 2P, we're now engaging in a program that is over 40 initiatives to make sure that we drive the productivity of those wells far into their active lives. So good performances in our legacy assets. We've had maintenance with very few unplanned events, and that is also one of the core aspects that we look into when we look at how we guide for the remainder of the year. So quite a bit of the expected maintenance for this year is well behind us. So we do think that, that is one of the factors bringing us to the top end of our guidance profile. Having said that, this is planned maintenance. We've been having extremely good performance on that respect, but we always guide taking into consideration that unplanned events may happen, and we guide for a central scenario. We don't guide for the best possible scenario. So we always have a little bit of a buffer or cushion there, if you like, for such eventual circumstances. Now the real driver behind the change in numbers for our production is, of course, Bacalhau. Bacalhau has been ramping up. I think we're extremely aligned with Equinor in terms of the fact that this is a profile that we see as taking us to full ramp-up towards the end of the year, as we always mentioned. Now having said that, this is a ramp-up. So it will have glitches fluctuations. You've seen higher numbers early in the year. We are now in 3 producers, hoping to connect the fourth producer and have it fully online soon enough. So a very good path, very much in line with what we were expecting so far, but still, again, being cautious and acknowledging that this is a ramp-up. So guiding for a central scenario and not for our best possible scenario. We're now seeing producers with extremely high flow rates that would give us very good performances. We're guiding for a central scenario, not for the top performances observed to date. Thank you.

Joao Diogo da Silva : Nash, going back to your question on refining margins. Well, we are living a very particular world within the volatility that we have. And if you go back to the end of June, we clearly see a different scenario. And of course, escalation on the Middle East conflict, additional attacks on Russian refineries. Of course, they bust and they have clearly a very, very sizable impact on the refining margins that we are having on the spot market. But our prudent approach assumptions to the second half, we see them as the more consistent ones. Considering the fundamentals of the market, of course, you have all the sensibilities available, you can input those to your model and consider them. But we can see margins squeezed by rising or rising input costs. We can see also some decrease on the oil product prices, mainly in diesel and jet, should there be a stable or resolution. And we also need to consider some demand destruction at this point. So there are a number of factors that can also take some pressure out from the spot market, and we think it's the best way to approach our second half. But again, you can consider you have the sensibilities which we shared and you can consider them in your model. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question today comes from the line of Christopher Copeland from Bank of America.

Christopher Copeland : The first one goes back to your renewable acquisitions. You've spent just shy of EUR 800 million. And I'm just looking at your EBITDA guidance pro forma EUR 110 million, comparing that to what you gave us earlier for the EBITDA contribution from renewables as more than EUR 30 million. So are we doing the right math to sort of say, okay, you have acquired assets at a roughly 10x plus EBITDA multiple? First question. And second question, can you help us a little bit quantifying that underlift impact in Upstream on EBITDA considering that EBITDA quarter-over-quarter has barely moved. Would like to understand how much of that you would argue could come back in the third quarter.

Maria Joao Carioca : So Chris, let me pick up on the underlift one as that's probably the easier one. So it's approximately EUR 60 million impact from underlift. So the effect there is simply the reflection of what was happening in terms of how we were registering in our accounts, the numbers that were at the time that were valid at the time that our partners were actually lifting those cargoes versus what is now that we've actually come through on the sales, the actual market prices for that. So this does bring quite a few swings into our numbers. So I will remind you that first quarter was actually positive. So we had a plus EUR 50 million there. And that's -- all in all, if you take the plus EUR 50 million on the quarter plus the number for the second quarter, it's a significant swing quarter-on-quarter, EUR 110 million. But overall, the mechanics is that I've just described, it's bringing into our account at the moment of sale, the difference vis-a-vis the prices registered at the time that our partners lift from the wells where we are in partnership. I hope this clears your question. Thank you.

Joao Diogo da Silva : And Chris, on your first one. So you're absolutely right. So our -- just to sum up, our underlying assumption on the wind power prices are around EUR 50 per megawatt. And indeed, we are looking at 10% returns, again, unlevered assets. Thank you.

Operator : Your next question today comes from the line of Ahmed Ben Salem from ODDO BHF.

Ahmed Ben Salem : So you raised the 2006 EBITDA guidance to around EUR 4 billion, largely reflecting strong Brent and refining margins. So how much of the upgrade comes from the macro assumptions versus underlying operational improvement?

Maria Joao Carioca : Thank you, Ahmed. So from the total upgrade, I think I mentioned it briefly before. But overall, there's approximately 25% of this upgrade coming from operational drivers and the remainder is indeed the reflection of the macro tailwind. So these operational upgrades are distributed across the portfolio. But all in all, fundamentally accounts for those operational changes that we see in terms of volumes and in terms of actual operational performance. Thank you.

Operator : Our next question today comes from the line of Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra.

Fernando Abril-Martorell : Only one. On -- based on the comments you've made on the leverage target for the RetailCo and the IndustrialCo and also based on the targeted stakes you want to have in each of the subsidiaries. Is it possible that the deal could generate an extraordinary dividend Upstream to the holdco level to you guys to Galp? And if so, what would you do with those proceeds, an extra DPS for shareholders or bringing leverage down further? I don't know, any comments on this would be helpful.

Joao Diogo da Silva : Fernando, I really understand your question, but it's too early to have an answer. Of course, your options are -- they make sense, but we cannot comment on that. It's too early. We are still triggering all the valuations. We are still triggering all the agreements, and it's not the time to speak about that, as Maria Joao already alluded. Thank you.

Operator : We will now take our final question for today. And the final question comes from the line of Sadnan Ali from HSBC.

Sadnan Ali : Two, please. The first one on refining. Can you just talk to us about your operational performance at Sines over the past few months? I think with the 1Q results, you said you made changes to your hydrocracker to increase the jet yield. And I was just wondering if you've made any other operational changes over the past few months. And with that, can you just remind us how much flexibility and agility you have in your system to say, alter the crude slate or the product yield slate on a short-term basis? And then secondly, just on the Commercial division, the discount mechanisms in place for Spain and Portugal. Can you quantify the impact it's had so far this year and your expectations going forward?

Joao Diogo da Silva : On the first one, Sadnan, so it's -- well, we are having a pretty high throughput through the quarter, and we are expecting higher throughput versus what we were assuming. So we were assuming around 80 million barrels. We are on the 80 million, 85 million range. I've mentioned already, so we are expecting light maintenance activities on the hydrocracker in September. And let me also give you some numbers on Sines outputs, which are roughly 45% middle distillates on which jet accounts for around 10%. We are trying and we have the flexibility to rise it to 13%. That's where we are looking -- at this point, we are on the 14%. The normal is a 10% ratio, and that's what we are expecting. So we are expecting to operate with full availability during July and August and having the minor maintenance activities in September. Thank you.

Operator : Thank you. This concludes the Q&A and today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Data is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.