GTN
Next earnings: Aug 14, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move-0.48%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume1.2× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 28Oversold — bounce setup
PRICE
Prev Close
4.17
Open
4.15
Day Range4.07 – 4.22
4.07
4.22
52W Range3.50 – 6.44
3.50
6.44
22% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-2.7x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.03%
Beta
0.81
Market-like
Performance
1D
-0.48%
5D
-4.60%
1M
-27.70%
3M
-13.00%
6M
-10.75%
YTD
-14.26%
1Y
+2.72%
Best: 1Y (+2.72%)Worst: 1M (-27.70%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev -14% · 95% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
MODERATE
CR 1.2 · FCF $0.47/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$385.59M
Revenue TTM$3.08B
Net Income TTM-$96.00M
Free Cash Flow$46.00M
Gross Margin95.0%
Net Margin-3.1%
Operating Margin12.4%
Return on Equity-3.4%
Return on Assets-0.9%
Debt / Equity2.10
Current Ratio1.20
EPS TTM$-0.99
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Political advertising cycle timing and intensity - presidential/midterm election years drive 30-50% revenue swings in Q3-Q4

Retransmission consent fee negotiations and rate increases - multi-year contracts with 5-10% annual escalators

Local automotive advertising trends - largest category, sensitive to dealer inventory and consumer financing rates

Debt refinancing activity and leverage ratio trajectory - 2.29x D/E suggests ~5-6x net debt/EBITDA, refinancing risk material

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Local advertising is highly procyclical, with automotive (20-25% of ad revenue), healthcare, legal services, and retail categories all sensitive to regional GDP growth and employment. Mid-sized markets in Gray's footprint lack economic diversification, amplifying cyclicality. Consumer sentiment drives discretionary advertising budgets. However, retransmission fees provide 45-50% revenue stability as they're contractual and less economically sensitive.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Direct: $3.5-4.0B estimated debt load means 100bps rate increase adds $35-40M annual interest expense, material to $370M TTM net income. (2) Indirect: Rising rates pressure automotive advertising as vehicle financing costs increase, reducing dealer ad spend. (3) Valuation: As a levered, mature cash flow business, Gray trades on EV/EBITDA multiples that compress when risk-free rates rise and credit spreads widen. Current 7.9x EV/EBITDA reflects elevated rate environment.

Key Risks

Secular cord-cutting and linear TV viewership decline - MVPD subscribers falling 5-7% annually, eroding retransmission fee base and advertising reach. Younger demographics abandoning broadcast TV entirely.

Streaming platform competition for advertising dollars - YouTube, Hulu, streaming services offer superior targeting and measurement, attracting local advertisers away from broadcast

Regulatory risk to retransmission consent regime - Congress periodically considers mandating arbitration or limiting fee growth, which would cap Gray's most profitable revenue stream

Investor Profile

value/special situations - Deeply discounted valuation (0.1x P/S, 0.2x P/B, 7.9x EV/EBITDA) attracts value investors betting on cyclical recovery and debt paydown. 134% FCF yield is extraordinary, suggesting either severe undervaluation or market skepticism about sustainability. Event-driven investors focus on political advertising cycles (2026 midterms upcoming). High leverage and structural headwinds deter growth investors. Not a dividend story despite cash generation, as debt paydown takes priority.

Watch on Earnings
Quarterly political advertising revenue and full-year guidance updates (especially in H1 2026 ahead of midterm elections)Retransmission consent revenue growth rate and subscriber trends from major MVPDsAutomotive advertising trends and dealer inventory levels (Cox Automotive data, SAAR)Net debt to EBITDA leverage ratio and interest coverage ratio progression
Health Radar
1 watch5 concern
18/100
Liquidity
1.20Watch
Leverage
2.10Concern
Coverage
1.6xConcern
ROE
-3.4%Concern
ROIC
3.2%Concern
Cash
$368MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE9 analysts
BUY
+68.7%upside to target
Buy
778%
Hold
222%
7 Buy (78%)2 Hold (22%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 28 — Oversold, watch for bounce
~
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.20
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 18, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 89 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 106 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 0.2%

-17.6% vs SMA 50 · -17.4% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI28.0
Oversold — potential bounce
MACD-0.30
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$6.44+55.2%
EMA 50
$4.99+20.1%
EMA 200
$4.94+19.1%
Current
$4.15
52W Low
$3.50-15.7%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$3.5022th %ile$6.44
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:7
Edge:+4 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.3M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.9M+43%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$3.6B
$3.6B$3.7B
$2.96
±1%
Moderate3
FY2025
$3.1B
$3.1B$3.1B
-15.2%-$1.40
±1%
Moderate3
FY2026(current)
$3.5B
$3.5B$3.5B
+12.9%$2.17
±1%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryGTN
Last 8Q
+1.5%avg beat
Beat 3 of 8 quartersMissed 4 Estimates falling
-10%
Q3'24
-5%
Q4'24
Q1'25
+53%
Q2'25
-83%
Q3'25
+41%
Q4'25
+21%
Q1'26
-6%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d01
BernsteinMarket Perform
Mar 3
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
1 Buy/5 SellsNet Selling
Boger Richard LeeDir
$116K
Sep 9
SELL
Gignac Jeffrey RExecutive Vice…
$46K
Jun 5
BUY
Boger Richard LeeDir
$62K
Feb 28
SELL
Mctear PaulDir
$67K
Dec 16
SELL
Latek Kevin PaulEVP Chief L & …
$656K
Dec 2
SELL
Latek Kevin PaulEVP Chief L & …
$21K
Dec 2
SELL
Financials
Dividends7.71% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield7.71%
Quarterly Div.$0.0800
Est. Annual / Share$0.32
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
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6.9M
2
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6.2M
3
MILLER VALUE PARTNERS, LLC
5.4M
4
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5.3M
5
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC
4.3M
6
Retirement Systems of Alabama
4.1M
7
Penn Capital Management Company, LLC
3.6M
8
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
2.8M
News & Activity

GTN News

About

gray television is a television broadcast company headquartered in atlanta, georgia, that owns and/or operates television stations and leading digital assets in markets throughout the united states. gray owns and operates television stations in 44 television markets broadcasting 139 program streams including 76 affiliates of the big four networks (abc, cbs, nbc and fox). gray's owned and/or operated stations include 26 channels affiliated with the cbs network, 24 channels affiliated with the nbc network, 16 channels affiliated with the abc network and 10 channels affiliated with the fox network. the company owns and operates the number-one ranked television station in 29 of those 44 markets and the number-one or number-two ranked television station operations in 40 of those 44 markets. gray reaches approximately 8.1 percent of total united states television households.

CEO
Hilton Howell
Donald Patrick LaPlatneyPresident, Co-CEO & Director
Jackson S. CowartSenior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer
Jeff GignacExecutive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
PeersCommunication Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
GTN
$4.15-0.48%$386M-1506.6%-274.6%1500
$396.78-1.07%$4.8T30.0+1512.6%3280.0%1523
$393.32-0.97%$4.8T30.0+1512.6%3280.0%1521
$614.23-0.68%$1.6T22.1+2216.7%3008.4%1501
$87.02+0.09%$366.4B27.5+1585.1%2430.4%1480
$185.22-1.58%$200.4B19.3+848.8%1244.7%1484
$46.37+0.00%$193.6B11.2+252.5%1504
Sector avg-0.67%23.3+917.4%2161.5%1502