Political advertising cycle timing and intensity - presidential/midterm election years drive 30-50% revenue swings in Q3-Q4
Retransmission consent fee negotiations and rate increases - multi-year contracts with 5-10% annual escalators
Local automotive advertising trends - largest category, sensitive to dealer inventory and consumer financing rates
Debt refinancing activity and leverage ratio trajectory - 2.29x D/E suggests ~5-6x net debt/EBITDA, refinancing risk material
high - Local advertising is highly procyclical, with automotive (20-25% of ad revenue), healthcare, legal services, and retail categories all sensitive to regional GDP growth and employment. Mid-sized markets in Gray's footprint lack economic diversification, amplifying cyclicality. Consumer sentiment drives discretionary advertising budgets. However, retransmission fees provide 45-50% revenue stability as they're contractual and less economically sensitive.
High sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Direct: $3.5-4.0B estimated debt load means 100bps rate increase adds $35-40M annual interest expense, material to $370M TTM net income. (2) Indirect: Rising rates pressure automotive advertising as vehicle financing costs increase, reducing dealer ad spend. (3) Valuation: As a levered, mature cash flow business, Gray trades on EV/EBITDA multiples that compress when risk-free rates rise and credit spreads widen. Current 7.9x EV/EBITDA reflects elevated rate environment.
Secular cord-cutting and linear TV viewership decline - MVPD subscribers falling 5-7% annually, eroding retransmission fee base and advertising reach. Younger demographics abandoning broadcast TV entirely.
Streaming platform competition for advertising dollars - YouTube, Hulu, streaming services offer superior targeting and measurement, attracting local advertisers away from broadcast
Regulatory risk to retransmission consent regime - Congress periodically considers mandating arbitration or limiting fee growth, which would cap Gray's most profitable revenue stream
value/special situations - Deeply discounted valuation (0.1x P/S, 0.2x P/B, 7.9x EV/EBITDA) attracts value investors betting on cyclical recovery and debt paydown. 134% FCF yield is extraordinary, suggesting either severe undervaluation or market skepticism about sustainability. Event-driven investors focus on political advertising cycles (2026 midterms upcoming). High leverage and structural headwinds deter growth investors. Not a dividend story despite cash generation, as debt paydown takes priority.
Trend
-17.6% vs SMA 50 · -17.4% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $3.6B $3.6B–$3.7B | — | $2.96 | — | ±1% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $3.1B $3.1B–$3.1B | ▼ -15.2% | -$1.40 | — | ±1% | Moderate3 |
FY2026(current) | $3.5B $3.5B–$3.5B | ▲ +12.9% | $2.17 | — | ±1% | Moderate3 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
GTN News
About
gray television is a television broadcast company headquartered in atlanta, georgia, that owns and/or operates television stations and leading digital assets in markets throughout the united states. gray owns and operates television stations in 44 television markets broadcasting 139 program streams including 76 affiliates of the big four networks (abc, cbs, nbc and fox). gray's owned and/or operated stations include 26 channels affiliated with the cbs network, 24 channels affiliated with the nbc network, 16 channels affiliated with the abc network and 10 channels affiliated with the fox network. the company owns and operates the number-one ranked television station in 29 of those 44 markets and the number-one or number-two ranked television station operations in 40 of those 44 markets. gray reaches approximately 8.1 percent of total united states television households.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GTN◀ | $4.15 | -0.48% | $386M | — | -1506.6% | -274.6% | 1500 |
| $396.78 | -1.07% | $4.8T | 30.0 | +1512.6% | 3280.0% | 1523 | |
| $393.32 | -0.97% | $4.8T | 30.0 | +1512.6% | 3280.0% | 1521 | |
| $614.23 | -0.68% | $1.6T | 22.1 | +2216.7% | 3008.4% | 1501 | |
| $87.02 | +0.09% | $366.4B | 27.5 | +1585.1% | 2430.4% | 1480 | |
| $185.22 | -1.58% | $200.4B | 19.3 | +848.8% | 1244.7% | 1484 | |
| $46.37 | +0.00% | $193.6B | 11.2 | +252.5% | — | 1504 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.67% | — | 23.3 | +917.4% | 2161.5% | 1502 |