HCC
Next earnings: Aug 5, 2026 · After close
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move+1.09%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 45Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
86.60
Open
86.10
Day Range85.20 – 88.61
85.20
88.61
52W Range40.80 – 105.35
40.80
105.35
72% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.0M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
33.2x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
0.66
Low vol
Performance
1D
+1.09%
5D
+5.30%
1M
-7.46%
3M
-1.70%
6M
+7.68%
YTD
-0.71%
1Y
+83.91%
Best: 1Y (+83.91%)Worst: 1M (-7.46%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +11% YoY
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 33x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 3.5 · FCF negative
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$4.62B
Revenue TTM$1.47B
Net Income TTM$137.51M
Free Cash Flow-$134.64M
Gross Margin38.2%
Net Margin9.4%
Operating Margin9.7%
Return on Equity6.4%
Return on Assets4.9%
Debt / Equity0.12
Current Ratio3.48
EPS TTM$2.61
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Premium Low Vol HCC benchmark pricing (Australia FOB) - primary revenue determinant with quarterly contract resets

Chinese steel production and import policy - China represents 50%+ of global steel output and met coal demand

European blast furnace utilization rates - key export market given Russian coal sanctions

Seaborne met coal supply disruptions (Australian weather, rail logistics, competitor production cuts)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Metallurgical coal demand is directly tied to global steel production, which correlates strongly with GDP growth, infrastructure spending, and manufacturing activity. Steel production is highly cyclical: during recessions, blast furnace utilization drops 15-25%, crushing met coal demand. China's construction and infrastructure activity drives 55% of global steel demand, making Chinese GDP growth and property sector health critical. Industrial production indices in Europe, India, and Japan provide leading indicators for met coal consumption.

Interest Rates

Moderate indirect sensitivity through two channels: (1) Higher rates strengthen USD, pressuring commodity prices denominated in dollars and reducing purchasing power for international steel mills; (2) Rising rates slow construction and infrastructure spending globally, reducing steel demand with 6-9 month lag. The company's low debt load (0.13 D/E) minimizes direct financing cost impact. Valuation multiples compress when rates rise as investors rotate from cyclical commodities to fixed income.

Key Risks

Long-term steel decarbonization transition - Electric arc furnaces (EAF) using scrap steel and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) could reduce met coal demand 30-40% by 2040-2050, though blast furnace retirement timelines remain uncertain and capital-intensive

Environmental regulations and ESG investor exclusion - Coal mining faces increasing regulatory scrutiny, carbon pricing proposals, and institutional investor divestment, limiting access to capital and compressing valuation multiples regardless of profitability

Geological depletion risk - Blue Creek reserves have 15-20 year mine life at current production rates; reserve replacement and new mine development require $400-600M capital and 3-5 year lead times

Investor Profile

value/cyclical - Attracts deep value investors and commodity traders seeking leverage to met coal price recovery. The 74.7% one-year return reflects momentum investors riding the commodity cycle. Not suitable for ESG-focused or long-duration growth investors. Dividend potential exists during high-price environments but capital allocation remains opportunistic. Typical holders include commodity-focused hedge funds, energy specialists, and contrarian value managers willing to accept coal sector stigma for cyclical upside.

Watch on Earnings
Premium Low Vol HCC (Australia FOB) benchmark price - primary revenue driverChina crude steel production (monthly data) - largest demand indicatorBaltic Dry Index - shipping cost component affecting netback pricingAustralian met coal export volumes - supply-side competitive pressure
Health Radar
3 strong1 watch2 concern
62/100
Liquidity
3.48Strong
Leverage
0.12Strong
Coverage
13.3xStrong
ROE
6.4%Concern
ROIC
5.1%Concern
Cash
$300MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE23 analysts
HOLD
+29.3%upside to target
L $105.00
Med $112.50consensus
H $120.00
Buy
835%
Hold
1461%
Sell
14%
8 Buy (35%)14 Hold (61%)1 Sell (4%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 45 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 3.48 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 8, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 5, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 20, 2026
In 105 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 13.9%

-1.0% vs SMA 50 · +12.8% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI44.7
Momentum fading
MACD-0.42
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$105.3+21.1%
EMA 50
$88.33+1.5%
Current
$87.00
EMA 200
$75.39-13.3%
52W Low
$40.80-53.1%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$40.8072th %ile$105.3
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:5
Dist days:5
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.1M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.5M+45%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$1.7B
$1.6B$1.8B
$8.09
±7%
Low2
FY2024
$1.5B
$1.5B$1.6B
-9.4%$5.26-35.0%
±7%
Moderate3
FY2025
$1.3B
$1.3B$1.4B
-14.5%$1.01-80.8%
±7%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryHCC
Last 8Q
+9.7%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
+1%
Q3'24
+7%
Q4'24
-69%
Q1'25
-220%
Q2'25
+139%
Q3'25
+236%
Q4'25
-29%
Q1'26
+13%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
UBSNeutral → Buy
Jan 29
UPGRADE
CitigroupBuy
Apr 11
UPGRADE
B. Riley SecuritiesBuy
Sep 23
UPGRADE
BMO CapitalMarket Perform
Aug 3
DOWNGRADE
JefferiesBuy
Jun 7
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
1 Buy/5 SellsNet Selling
Scheller Walter JCEO
$10.0M
Jan 12
SELL
Gant Kelli K.See remarks
$1.0M
Jan 12
SELL
Chopin Brian MCHIEF ACCOUNTI…
$50K
Nov 12
SELL
Chopin Brian MCHIEF ACCOUNTI…
$121K
Nov 13
SELL
Scheller Walter JCEO
$1.4M
Nov 6
SELL
Richardson Jack K.COO
$84K
May 22
BUY
Financials
Dividends0.37% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield0.37%
Quarterly Div.$0.0800
Est. Annual / Share$0.32
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Hosking Partners LLP
657K
2
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC
598K
3
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
392K
4
UBS Group AG
389K
5
O'Keefe Stevens Advisory, Inc.
293K
6
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
255K
7
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
228K
8
Ashoka WhiteOak Capital Pte Ltd
131K
News & Activity

HCC News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

warrior met coal, inc. produces and exports metallurgical coal for the steel industry. it operates two underground mines located in alabama. the company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in europe, south america, and asia. it also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. warrior met coal, inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in brookwood, alabama.

CEO
Walter Scheller
D'Andre WrightVice President of External Affairs & Communications
Phillip C. MonroeVice President of Legal
Brian ChopinSenior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller
PeersBasic Materials(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
HCC
$87.00+1.09%$4.6B33.6-1411.9%435.1%1500
$501.87+0.32%$231.8B32.7+297.2%2029.7%1506
$115.10+5.59%$116.4B14.8+1907.6%3206.3%1506
$60.89+5.56%$82.9B32.2+112.4%856.2%1506
$323.63+3.57%$77.1B30.6+206.0%1089.5%1481
$263.42+2.24%$72.8B35.3+215.9%1290.7%1480
$300.21-1.22%$67.7B31.7-52.3%-327.7%1504
Sector avg+2.45%30.1+182.1%1225.7%1498