HCI
Next earnings: Aug 6, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move-0.03%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 49Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
156.44
Open
155.78
Day Range152.58 – 157.67
152.58
157.67
52W Range136.37 – 210.50
136.37
210.50
27% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
173.1K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
6.8x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.04%
Beta
0.62
Low vol
Performance
1D
-0.03%
5D
+2.44%
1M
+0.72%
3M
-0.99%
6M
-13.11%
YTD
-18.41%
1Y
-4.72%
Best: 5D (+2.44%)Worst: YTD (-18.41%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +22% YoY · 67% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 7x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 25.2 · FCF $37.76/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.00B
Revenue TTM$927.48M
Net Income TTM$302.73M
Free Cash Flow$430.48M
Gross Margin66.5%
Net Margin32.6%
Operating Margin47.9%
Return on Equity32.6%
Return on Assets13.0%
Debt / Equity0.06
Current Ratio25.17
EPS TTM$26.56
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Hurricane activity and named storm frequency in the Atlantic basin during June-November season

Florida insurance regulatory decisions on rate approvals and policy form changes

Reinsurance market pricing and capacity availability at annual June/July renewals

Policy count growth and average premium per policy trends in Florida coastal counties

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Homeowners insurance is non-discretionary and required by mortgage lenders, creating stable demand regardless of economic conditions. However, housing market activity affects new policy growth, and economic stress can increase policy cancellations. Premium pricing is more sensitive to catastrophe loss experience and reinsurance costs than GDP growth.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates are moderately positive for HCI. Higher rates increase investment income on the $400-500M float and surplus portfolio (estimated 60% fixed income), with each 100bp rate increase adding approximately $4-5M in annual investment income. However, rising rates can pressure property valuations and reduce housing turnover, modestly slowing new policy growth. The company carries minimal debt (0.04 D/E ratio), so financing costs are negligible. Higher rates also improve discount rates on loss reserves, potentially releasing capital.

Key Risks

Climate change increasing hurricane frequency/intensity could make Florida homeowners insurance economically unviable, forcing state-run Citizens Property Insurance to absorb market share

Florida regulatory intervention including rate caps, mandatory coverage expansions, or restrictions on non-renewals could compress underwriting margins

Litigation trends in Florida including assignment-of-benefits abuse and inflated claims could deteriorate loss ratios beyond actuarial expectations

Investor Profile

value - The stock trades at 2.2x book value with 32% ROE, attracting value investors seeking mispriced insurance risk and special situation investors betting on benign hurricane seasons. The 15.8% FCF yield appeals to cash flow-focused investors. High earnings volatility (hurricane losses) deters growth-at-any-price investors. Dividend yield is modest, so not primarily income-focused. Momentum investors participate after benign weather quarters when earnings surprise positively.

Watch on Earnings
NOAA Atlantic hurricane season forecasts and named storm counts (June-November)Florida Office of Insurance Regulation rate filing approvals and average approved rate changesReinsurance market pricing indices and Florida-specific catastrophe reinsurance ratesFlorida housing market activity and coastal property values (Case-Shiller Miami index)
Health Radar
5 strong1 watch
91/100
Liquidity
25.17Strong
Leverage
0.06Strong
Coverage
66.4xStrong
ROE
32.6%Strong
ROIC
14.5%Watch
Cash
$1.2BStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE13 analysts
BUY
-15.0%downside to target
L $75.00
Med $133.00consensus
H $165.00
Buy
1077%
Hold
323%
10 Buy (77%)3 Hold (23%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 49 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 25.17 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupMIXED
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 8.7%

+0.6% vs SMA 50 · -8.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI49.1
Neutral territory
MACD-0.54
Below zero — bearish pulse · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$210.5+34.6%
EMA 200
$163.8+4.8%
Current
$156.4
EMA 50
$156.3-0.0%
52W Low
$136.4-12.8%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$136.427th %ile$210.5
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:7
Edge:+4 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)184K
Recent Vol (5D)
221K+20%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$707.2M
$703.5M$710.9M
$16.14
±1%
Low1
FY2024
$749.5M
$739.4M$759.6M
+6.0%$6.20-61.6%
±10%
Low2
FY2025
$886.8M
$878.3M$895.3M
+18.3%$20.50+230.6%
±3%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 8 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryHCI
Last 8Q
+49.7%avg beat
Beat 8 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+21%
Q3'24
+74%
Q4'24
+111%
Q1'25
+19%
Q2'25
+16%
Q3'25
+101%
Q4'25
+49%
Q1'26
+6%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Compass PointUnderperform → Neutral
Oct 21
DOWNGRADE
OppenheimerUnderperform → Outperform
Oct 7
UPGRADE
William BlairOutperform
Mar 8
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
2 Buys/4 SellsNet Selling
Patel PareshCEO
$56K
Apr 11
BUY
Patel PareshCEO
$115K
Apr 9
BUY
Saravanos AnthonyDir
$363K
Apr 5
SELL
Saravanos AnthonyDir
$2.4M
Apr 8
SELL
Graham Andrew L.General Counsel
$3.4M
Apr 3
SELL
Graham Andrew L.General Counsel
$27K
Apr 3
SELL
Financials
Dividends1.02% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield1.02%
Quarterly Div.$0.4000
Est. Annual / Share$1.60
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
1.6M
2
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC
625K
3
Hood River Capital Management LLC
624K
4
Khrom Capital Management LLC
580K
5
STATE STREET CORP
399K
6
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
355K
7
Freestone Grove Partners LP
343K
8
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
301K
News & Activity

HCI News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

hci group, inc. engages in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology businesses in florida. it provides residential insurance products, such as homeowners insurance, flood insurance, and wind-only insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants, as well as offers reinsurance programs. the company also owns and operates one full-service restaurant, marinas, waterfront property, retail shopping centres, office building, and vacant shopping centre for investment purposes. in addition, it designs and develops web-based applications and products for mobile devices, including sams and claimcolony applications. the company was formerly known as homeowners choice, inc. and changed its name to hci group, inc. in may 2013. hci group, inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in tampa, florida.

CEO
Paresh Patel
Andrew Lloyd GrahamVice President, General Counsel & Company Secretary
Anthony SaravanosPresident of Greenleaf Capital LLC & Real Estate Division and Director
Nathaniel OtisVice President of Investor Relations
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
HCI
$156.40-0.03%$2.0B+2021.4%1500
$297.81-0.70%$798.0B14.1+330.7%2039.3%1503
$325.75+1.00%$624.4B28.0+1134.0%5014.5%1500
$494.20+0.87%$436.7B28.3+1641.6%4564.7%1490
$49.77-0.16%$353.2B11.4-45.1%1592.6%1495
$192.51-1.04%$303.6B16.6+1147.7%1466.4%1526
$948.47-2.11%$279.8B15.9-138.4%1373.0%1526
Sector avg-0.31%19.1+870.3%2675.1%1506