HIPO
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move+5.32%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume1.0× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 47Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
26.33
Open
26.60
Day Range26.34 – 27.97
26.34
27.97
52W Range19.92 – 38.98
19.92
38.98
41% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
124.3K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
6.3x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.58
High vol
Performance
1D
+5.32%
5D
-2.26%
1M
+8.62%
3M
-6.95%
6M
-24.61%
YTD
-7.81%
1Y
+19.89%
Best: 1Y (+19.89%)Worst: 6M (-24.61%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +21% YoY · 40% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 6x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.2 · FCF $1.94/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$721.85M
Revenue TTM$479.80M
Net Income TTM$112.50M
Free Cash Flow$50.10M
Gross Margin40.5%
Net Margin23.4%
Operating Margin24.2%
Return on Equity27.5%
Return on Assets5.5%
Debt / Equity0.11
Current Ratio1.17
EPS TTM$4.35
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Quarterly gross written premium (GWP) growth and policy count expansion - indicates market share gains and distribution effectiveness

Combined ratio performance - particularly loss ratio trends excluding catastrophe losses, which signal underwriting discipline

Catastrophe loss announcements - hurricanes, wildfires, and severe convective storms in Texas/California/Florida exposure zones drive immediate stock volatility

Reinsurance treaty renewals and pricing - annual June/July renewals determine capital requirements and profitability potential

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Home insurance is non-discretionary for mortgaged properties (80% of homeowners), providing revenue stability during recessions. However, economic downturns reduce new home purchases and increase policy cancellations among cash-strapped homeowners. Housing market activity directly impacts new policy origination, with 40-50% of new customers coming from home purchase transactions. Consumer spending weakness can pressure premium growth but doesn't eliminate demand like discretionary insurance products.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates have mixed effects: (1) NEGATIVE for growth - higher mortgage rates reduce home sales and new policy origination, slowing premium growth by 15-25% based on housing market elasticity; (2) POSITIVE for investment income - insurance float invested in fixed-income securities generates higher yields, improving combined ratio by 2-3 points as investment income offsets underwriting losses; (3) NEGATIVE for valuation - growth-stage insurtech companies trade on revenue multiples, and higher discount rates compress P/S multiples from 2-3x to 1-2x range. Net effect is moderately negative given current pre-profitability stage where growth matters more than float income.

Key Risks

Climate change increasing frequency and severity of catastrophic weather events in core markets (Texas hail, California wildfires, Florida hurricanes) - industry loss trends show 7-10% annual increase in insured catastrophe losses, potentially making homeowners insurance unprofitable in high-risk zones

Regulatory intervention in rate-setting - California Proposition 103 and Florida insurance reforms limit rate increases below actuarial needs, forcing carriers to subsidize high-risk policies and potentially exit markets

Reinsurance market hardening - global reinsurance capacity constraints following 2024-2025 catastrophe losses could increase treaty costs by 30-50% at June 2026 renewals, eliminating underwriting margins

Investor Profile

growth - Investors are betting on market share gains in the $130B homeowners insurance market and eventual operating leverage as the company scales to profitability. The 77% revenue growth and improving loss ratios attract momentum investors despite current losses. High volatility and small market cap ($700M) appeal to venture-style public market investors willing to accept binary outcomes. Not suitable for value or income investors given negative earnings, no dividend, and uncertain path to sustained profitability.

Watch on Earnings
NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts and named storm activity in Atlantic basin (June-November) - directly impacts catastrophe loss expectationsCalifornia Department of Insurance rate filing approvals - regulatory delays signal margin compression in largest marketReinsurance broker commentary on treaty pricing trends (Aon, Guy Carpenter quarterly reports) - leading indicator of profitability 6-12 months forwardHome price appreciation rates in Texas, California, Florida - rising replacement costs increase premiums but also loss severity
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
57/100
Liquidity
1.17Watch
Leverage
0.11Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
27.5%Strong
ROIC
20.4%Strong
Cash
$250MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE6 analysts
BUY
-8.0%downside to target
L $17.50
Med $25.50consensus
H $45.00
Buy
467%
Hold
233%
4 Buy (67%)2 Hold (33%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 47 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.17
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · After CloseMay 4, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 31, 2026
In 89 days
PDividend PaymentAug 4, 2026
In 93 days
Technicals
Technical SetupMIXED
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 8.9%

-1.7% vs SMA 50 · -10.4% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI47.2
Neutral territory
MACD+0.15
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$38.98+40.6%
EMA 200
$29.67+7.0%
EMA 50
$28.41+2.5%
Current
$27.73
52W Low
$19.92-28.2%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$19.9241th %ile$38.98
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:1
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)288K
Recent Vol (5D)
141K-51%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$296.9M
$289.1M$302.4M
-$7.08
±3%
Low1
FY2024
$368.1M
$358.4M$374.9M
+24.0%-$3.64
±3%
Low2
FY2025
$469.2M
$456.9M$477.9M
+27.5%$2.08
±3%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 4 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryHIPO
Last 8Q
+269.9%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates rising
+7%
Q3'24
+66%
Q4'24
+53%
Q1'25
-35%
Q2'25
+200%
Q3'25
+1650%
Q4'25
+14%
Q1'26
+204%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Keefe, Bruyette & W…Outperform → Market Perform
Jul 22
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
1 Buy/5 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $130K sold · 30d window
Mccathron RichardCEO
$130K
Apr 9
SELL
Mccathron RichardCEO
$129K
Mar 9
SELL
Ostergaard TorbenCEO Spinnaker
$18K
Feb 25
SELL
Ostergaard TorbenCEO Spinnaker
$174K
Feb 17
SELL
Zeltser GuyCFO
$5K
Nov 14
BUY
Mccathron RichardCEO
$146K
Feb 9
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
135K
2
Huntleigh Advisors, Inc.
33K
3
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
20K
4
STRS OHIO
19K
5
Skopos Labs, Inc.
13K
6
WEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC
12K
7
NorthCrest Asset Manangement, LLC
11K
8
R Squared Ltd
10K
News & Activity

HIPO News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

No description available.

Industry
Direct Property and Casualty Insurance Carriers
Richard Lyn McCathron CPCUPresident, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Torben Nohr OstergaardPresident & Chief Executive Officer of Spinnaker
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
HIPO
$27.73+5.32%$722M6.4+2593.4%1231.3%1500
$312.47-0.24%$842.7B14.8+330.7%2039.3%1506
$328.03-0.55%$628.8B28.2+1134.0%5014.5%1500
$495.46-1.19%$438.6B28.4+1641.6%4564.7%1491
$53.24-0.41%$382.1B12.2-45.1%1592.6%1502
$190.18-0.22%$302.0B16.4+1147.7%1466.4%1518
$923.71-0.01%$274.1B15.5-138.4%1373.0%1516
Sector avg+0.39%17.4+952.0%2468.8%1505