Celestica: Hyperscaler Capex May Cool, But Revenue Momentum Still Looks Explosive
Celestica's hyperscaler-driven CCS growth is accelerating, supported by 1.6T networking wins and AI/…
seekingalpha.com
HL(HL)
HL
Signal
Bearish Setup2↓
PRICE
Prev Close
18.06
Open
17.70
Day Range17.51 – 18.19
17.51
18.19
52W Range4.65 – 34.17
4.65
34.17
44% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
17.1M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
36.6x
EPS (TTM)
—
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
1.08
Market-like
Quick Read
Trend—Insufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +53% YoY · 43% gross marginValuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 37x vs ~20x sectorHealth
STRONG
CR 2.7 · FCF $0.46/shBullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$11.79B
Revenue TTM$1.42B
Net Income TTM$321.71M
Free Cash Flow$310.25M
Gross Margin42.8%
Net Margin22.6%
Operating Margin36.2%
Return on Equity13.7%
Return on Assets8.5%
Debt / Equity0.12
Current Ratio2.72
EPS TTM$0.48
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock
Silver spot price movements: Stock exhibits 2.5-3.0x beta to silver given operational leverage and 50% revenue exposure
Gold price trajectory: Kensington and Casa Berardi gold production provides 40% revenue diversification, with $100/oz gold move impacting annual EBITDA by $30-40M
Greens Creek production volumes: Any disruption to this 9M oz/year flagship asset (weather, permitting, labor) moves stock 10-15%
Lucky Friday ramp-up progress: Mine restarted in 2020 after 3-year closure; reaching 2M oz/year target by 2027 would add $50M EBITDA at current prices
Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle
low - Precious metals are counter-cyclical safe-haven assets. Silver has dual identity: 50% industrial demand (electronics, solar) provides moderate GDP sensitivity, but 50% investment demand (coins, bars, ETFs) surges during economic uncertainty. Gold is pure safe-haven with negative GDP correlation. Net effect: company performs well in both late-cycle inflation scenarios and recessionary flight-to-quality environments.
Interest Rates
High inverse sensitivity to real interest rates. Precious metals yield nothing, so opportunity cost rises with positive real rates. When 10-year TIPS yield is negative (as in 2024-2026 with inflation above nominal yields), gold/silver become attractive relative to bonds. A 100bp decline in real rates historically correlates with 15-20% precious metals price gains. Fed rate cuts in 2025-2026 have been primary driver of recent 296% stock rally.
Key Risks
Silver industrial demand erosion: 50% of silver demand is industrial (photovoltaics, electronics, EVs). Technological substitution (copper replacing silver in solar panels, digital photography eliminating film) could reduce long-term demand growth below 2-3% annual rate
Permitting and environmental opposition: U.S. mining faces 7-10 year permitting timelines and activist challenges. Greens Creek operates in Tongass National Forest; any permit revocation would eliminate 50% of production. Alaska and Idaho political risk lower than Nevada/Arizona but non-zero
Reserve depletion without replacement: Greens Creek has produced since 1989; high-grade zones depleting. If exploration doesn't replace 100% of annual depletion (9M oz silver, 60K oz gold), mine life shrinks and stock re-rates lower on shorter cash flow duration
Investor Profile
momentum and macro hedge investors - Stock attracts precious metals bulls, inflation hedgers, and tactical traders playing Fed policy. 296% annual return and 56% quarterly gain signal momentum-driven ownership. High volatility (likely 50-60% annualized) and 2.5-3.0x silver beta make this unsuitable for conservative accounts. Dividend yield minimal (~0.5%), so not income-focused. Valuation at 10.4x sales and 25.8x EV/EBITDA reflects growth/momentum premium, not value characteristics.
Watch on Earnings
Silver spot price (COMEX front-month futures): Every $1/oz move impacts annual revenue by $16-18M based on 16-18M oz productionGold spot price (COMEX front-month futures): Every $50/oz move impacts annual revenue by $13-15M based on 260K oz production10-year TIPS real yield: Negative real rates are rocket fuel for precious metals; monitor breakeven inflation vs nominal 10-year TreasuryUS Dollar Index (DXY): Inverse correlation to precious metals; 5% dollar decline typically drives 8-10% gold/silver rally as non-USD buyers gain purchasing power
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
64/100Liquidity
2.72Strong
Leverage
0.12Strong
Coverage
12.4xStrong
ROE
13.7%Watch
ROIC
9.7%Watch
Cash
$242MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE22 analysts
HOLD
▲ +39.4%upside to target
L $13.00
Med $24.50consensus
H $36.50Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
●
✗RSI RangeRSI 40 — Bearish momentum
Volume
●
✗Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
●
✓Last EarningsBeat estimates
●
~Analyst ConsensusHold
●
✓LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.72 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 7, 2026
In 94 days
FinancialsFull statements →
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →Trend
→ PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 21.1%
-10.2% vs SMA 50 · +8.8% vs SMA 200
Momentum
RSI40.0Momentum fading
MACD-0.46Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$34.17+94.4%
EMA 50
$19.34+10.0%
Current
$17.58
EMA 200
$15.35-12.7%
52W Low
$4.65-73.5%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$4.6544th %ile$34.17
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution PressureDistribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:6
Dist days:6
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)21.1M
Recent Vol (5D)
18.3M-13%
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Earnings & Analysts
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $1.3B $1.3B–$1.4B | — | $0.41 | — | ±6% | Moderate4 |
FY2026(current) | $1.6B $1.5B–$1.8B | ▲ +22.5% | $0.90 | ▲ +116.8% | ±9% | Moderate4 |
FY2027 | $1.5B $1.4B–$1.6B | ▼ -7.2% | $1.18 | ▲ +30.9% | ±10% | Moderate3 |
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 4 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryHL
Last 8Q
+31.2%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3↑ Estimates rising+221%
Q2'24
-44%
Q3'24
-40%
Q4'24
-20%
Q1'25
+33%
Q2'25
+60%
Q3'25
+24%
Q4'25
+17%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →No recent activity
Roth CapitalNeutral → Sell
Oct 3
DOWNGRADE
BMO CapitalMarket Perform
May 2
DOWNGRADE
Cantor FitzgeraldBuy
May 9
UPGRADE
Morgan StanleyBuy
Oct 13
UPGRADE
Canaccord GenuityBuy
Oct 19
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Allen KurtVP-Exploration
$210K
Jan 6
SELL
Allen KurtVP-Exploration
$934K
Jan 6
SELL
Clary Michael L.Sr. VP & CAO
$1.5M
Dec 19
SELL
Sienko David CSr. VP, GC & S…
$4.0M
Dec 17
SELL
Lawlar Russell Doug…Sr. VP & CFO
$2.2M
Nov 10
SELL
Lawlar Russell Doug…Sr. VP & CFO
$278K
Nov 10
SELL
Financials
Dividends0.09% yield
3 yrs of paymentsAnnual Yield0.09%
Semi-Annual Div.$0.0037
Est. Annual / Share$0.01
FrequencySemi-Annual
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
1
Nuveen, LLC
4.1M▲2
Ninety One UK Ltd
3.7M▼3
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
2.1M▲4
Retirement Systems of Alabama
822K▲5
Raiffeisen Bank International AG
640K▲6
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
562K▲7
B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.
407K▲8
Phocas Financial Corp.
286K▼News & Activity
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About
hecla’s mission is to create value for our shareholders by discovering, acquiring, developing, producing and marketing mineral resources at a profit. our people are our greatest resource. hecla’s enduring success would not be possible without the dedication, diligence and group effort provided by our people.
CEO
Phillips Baker
Website
Kurt D. AllenVice President of Exploration
Michael ParkinVice President of Strategy & Investor Relations
Carlos AguiarSenior Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Peers— Basic Materials(7 companies)
Screen sector →| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HL◀ | $17.58 | +0.00% | $11.8B | — | — | — | 1500 |
| $493.55 | -2.83% | $228.7B | 32.1 | +297.2% | 2029.7% | 1506 | |
| $108.33 | -0.27% | $115.6B | 13.9 | +1907.6% | 3206.3% | 1506 | |
| $55.59 | -1.70% | $79.9B | 29.4 | +112.4% | 856.2% | 1506 | |
| $310.49 | -2.36% | $76.6B | 29.3 | +206.0% | 1089.5% | 1480 | |
| $255.59 | -1.51% | $72.2B | 34.2 | +215.9% | 1290.7% | 1480 | |
| $298.35 | -0.90% | $66.4B | 31.5 | -52.3% | -327.7% | 1503 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.37% | — | 28.4 | +447.8% | 1357.5% | 1497 |