Office furniture order rates and backlog trends, particularly large corporate campus projects and government contract awards which signal 6-12 month revenue visibility
Housing starts and single-family construction activity, which drive hearth product demand with 3-6 month lag from permit to fireplace installation
Steel and resin input costs, which represent 15-20% of COGS and directly impact gross margins given 60-90 day pricing lag on existing orders
Return-to-office mandates and corporate real estate utilization rates, which drive office reconfiguration spending and furniture replacement cycles
high - Office furniture demand correlates strongly with corporate capital expenditure cycles and white-collar employment growth, while hearth products track residential construction with 85%+ correlation to single-family housing starts. Both segments are discretionary purchases that get deferred during economic uncertainty, making HNI a late-cycle industrial with 1.2-1.4x GDP beta historically.
Elevated sensitivity through two channels: (1) Mortgage rates directly impact housing starts and new home construction, which drives 70%+ of hearth product demand, with 100bps mortgage rate increase typically reducing starts by 8-12% over 12 months. (2) Corporate borrowing costs affect office build-out and furniture capex budgets, particularly for mid-market customers without investment-grade access. Dealer financing costs also impact channel inventory levels. Current 0.55x debt/equity provides modest direct interest expense sensitivity.
Permanent reduction in office space per employee due to hybrid work adoption, with corporate real estate footprints down 15-25% post-pandemic and further consolidation possible, reducing total addressable market for office furniture
Shift toward natural gas bans in new residential construction (California, Washington, New York jurisdictions) threatens long-term hearth product demand, though propane and electric alternatives provide partial offset
Import competition from low-cost Asian manufacturers in standardized office furniture categories, particularly seating and storage, pressuring pricing in non-customized segments
value - Stock trades at 0.9x sales and 7.7x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages, attracting deep value investors betting on cyclical recovery and margin normalization. Recent 183% net income growth and 7.7% FCF yield appeal to turnaround-focused funds. Low institutional ownership (typically 75-80% for industrials) suggests under-followed small-cap value opportunity. Dividend yield around 3-4% provides income component.
Trend
-16.7% vs SMA 50 · -29.5% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2026(current) | $2.7B $2.6B–$2.7B | — | $3.56 | — | ±0% | Moderate3 |
FY2027 | $6.0B $6.0B–$6.0B | ▲ +125.2% | $4.02 | ▲ +13.2% | ±1% | Moderate3 |
FY2028 | $6.2B $6.2B–$6.3B | ▲ +4.0% | $4.83 | ▲ +20.2% | ±1% | Moderate3 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
HNI News
About
at hni corporation, we go beyond simply building great desks, chairs, file cabinets and fireplaces. we're focused on building relationships by delivering solutions. with deeply held values that were born with the corporation's founding in 1944, we are a collection of individuals, called members, united by a dedication to integrity, quality, innovation, service and continuous improvement. hni corporation's growth strategy centers on three imperatives: building leading brands, taking care of end users and achieving operational excellence. the corporation's manufacturing and supply chain expertise consistently translates to the highest quality products, provided with the fastest and most dependable turnaround in its industries. hni corporation is a group of nine companies, each representing a family of leading brands, products and services for the office and home. in hni corporation's unique and powerful member-owner environment, every member has an opportunity to share in making the busi
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HNI◀ | $29.90 | -5.32% | $1.6B | — | +1237.3% | — | 1500 |
| $888.31 | +0.00% | $409.2B | — | — | — | 1526 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | — | — | — | 1488 | |
| $171.18 | +0.00% | $230.5B | — | — | — | 1486 | |
| $220.49 | +0.00% | $173.8B | — | — | — | 1502 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| $399.44 | +0.00% | $155.1B | — | — | — | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.19% | — | 22.2 | +672.3% | 2912.3% | 1502 |