STAAR Surgical Q1 2026: Early Signs Of A Durable Turnaround
STAAR Surgical Company delivered a robust 1Q26 beat, with revenue up 119% YoY to $93.5M and a swing…
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HTLD(HTLD)
HTLD
Next earnings: Jul 23, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup3↑
PRICE
Prev Close
13.14
Open
13.12
Day Range13.11 – 13.60
13.11
13.60
52W Range7.00 – 13.92
7.00
13.92
91% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
458.6K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-24.2x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
—
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
0.58
Low vol
Performance
1D
+1.22%5D
+1.99%1M
+23.72%3M
+17.91%6M↑
+76.86%YTD
+47.29%1Y
+45.51%Best: 6M (+76.86%)
Quick Read
Trend—Insufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -23% YoY · thin -1% gross marginValuation
FAIR
P/E not availableHealth
WEAK
CR 1.3 · FCF negativeBearish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.03B
Revenue TTM$762.54M
Net Income TTM-$43.40M
Free Cash Flow-$64.00M
Gross Margin-0.8%
Net Margin-5.7%
Operating Margin-7.3%
Return on Equity-5.7%
Return on Assets-3.7%
Debt / Equity0.20
Current Ratio1.27
EPS TTM$-0.56
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock
Truckload spot rate trends (DAT Freight Index) - current spot rates ~$1.60-$1.80/mile vs. $2.20+ needed for profitability
Freight demand indicators - industrial production, retail inventory restocking cycles, manufacturing PMI driving shipment volumes
Diesel fuel price volatility - impacts both direct costs (20-25% of revenue) and customer fuel surcharge negotiations
Capacity rationalization signals - competitor fleet reductions, truck orders, driver availability affecting supply-demand balance
Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle
high - Truckload freight demand correlates directly with industrial production, manufacturing output, and retail inventory cycles. The current -23% revenue decline reflects weak manufacturing activity (ISM Manufacturing PMI below 50 for extended period) and destocking trends. Recovery requires GDP acceleration above 2.5% trend and manufacturing resurgence to absorb excess trucking capacity estimated at 15-20% industrywide.
Interest Rates
Moderate impact through two channels: (1) Higher rates increase equipment financing costs for tractor/trailer purchases (typical 5-year loans at prime + 200-300bps), pressuring capex returns and potentially delaying fleet renewals; (2) Rate increases dampen freight demand by slowing construction, manufacturing capex, and consumer durable goods purchases. However, Heartland's low debt/equity (0.21x) limits direct balance sheet exposure compared to more leveraged competitors.
Key Risks
Autonomous trucking technology development - Waymo, Aurora, TuSimple advancing self-driving trucks that could eliminate driver costs (40-45% of revenue) within 5-10 years, fundamentally disrupting labor-intensive business model
Regulatory changes to hours-of-service rules and emissions standards - ELD mandates already reduced productivity; potential electric vehicle mandates require massive capital investment in charging infrastructure and fleet conversion
Permanent freight pattern shifts - e-commerce growth favoring parcel carriers over truckload, nearshoring reducing long-haul Mexico cross-border volumes, warehouse automation reducing shipment frequency
Investor Profile
value - Stock trades at 1.0x book value and 1.0x sales despite negative earnings, attracting deep-value investors betting on cyclical recovery to normalized 5-7% operating margins. Requires 18-24 month investment horizon for freight market normalization. Not suitable for growth or income investors given negative earnings and likely dividend suspension risk.
Watch on Earnings
DAT Truckload Freight Index spot rates (dry van) - leading indicator of pricing environment, currently $1.65-$1.75/mileDiesel fuel prices (RBUSD futures or retail diesel) - direct cost impact and fuel surcharge recovery timingIndustrial Production Index (INDPRO) - correlates with freight volumes, particularly manufacturing-heavy Midwest lanesClass 8 truck net orders and backlog - indicates competitor capacity additions/reductions, currently at multi-year lows signaling rationalization
Health Radar
1 strong1 watch4 concern
23/100Liquidity
1.27Watch
Leverage
0.20Strong
Coverage
-5.3xConcern
ROE
-5.7%Concern
ROIC
-4.1%Concern
Cash
$18MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE19 analysts
HOLD
▼ -9.8%downside to target
L $12.00
Med $12.00consensus
H $15.00Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
●
✓RSI RangeRSI 60 — Bullish momentum
Volume
●
✓Volume FlowLean Accumulation
Fundamentals
●
✓Last EarningsBeat estimates
●
~Analyst ConsensusHold
●
~LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.27
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 17, 2026
In 93 days
FinancialsFull statements →
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →Trend
▲ UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 20.8%
+19.9% vs SMA 50 · +44.9% vs SMA 200
Momentum
RSI60.3Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.55Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$13.92+4.7%
Current
$13.30
EMA 50
$11.08-16.7%
EMA 200
$9.37-29.6%
52W Low
$7.00-47.4%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$7.0091th %ile$13.92
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze SetupAccumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:8
Dist days:4
Edge:+4 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)432K
Recent Vol (5D)
596K+38%
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Earnings & Analysts
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↓ Revised Down
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $1.1B $1.1B–$1.1B | — | -$0.31 | — | ±3% | Low2 |
FY2024 | $1.1B $1.0B–$1.1B | ▼ -4.9% | -$0.39 | — | ±9% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $817.8M $813.8M–$821.7M | ▼ -22.9% | -$0.49 | — | ±13% | Moderate3 |
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryHTLD
Last 8Q
-29.7%avg beat
Beat 3 of 8 quartersMissed 4↓ Estimates falling-35%
Q3'24
-208%
Q4'24
+50%
Q1'25
-38%
Q2'25
-75%
Q3'25
—
Q4'25
+14%
Q1'26
+54%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced heightAnalyst Activity
All ratings →No recent activity
UBSBuy → Neutral
Jul 9
DOWNGRADE
MKM PartnersNeutral
Nov 11
DOWNGRADE
UBSBuy
Nov 11
UPGRADE
BarclaysUnderweight
Apr 27
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →6 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
Gerdin Michael JCEO
$203K
Aug 18
BUY
Gerdin Michael JCEO
$32K
Aug 15
BUY
Gerdin Michael JCEO
$11K
Aug 14
BUY
Pratt James GDir
$59K
May 14
BUY
Ann S. Gerdin Revoc…10%
$1.5M
May 12
BUY
Hupfeld AmandaDir
$18K
May 12
BUY
Financials
Dividends0.60% yield
3 yrs of paymentsAnnual Yield0.60%
Quarterly Div.$0.0200
Est. Annual / Share$0.08
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
1
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3.9M▲3
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2.1M▲4
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1.8M▲5
GATE CITY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
1.6M▼6
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP
1.4M▲7
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
1.2M▲8
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC
1.1M▼News & Activity
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About
heartland express customers represent the most successful businesses in the world. the top shippers in america depend on heartland express to improve business performance, deliver exceptional results to their customers, and drive overall value into their transportation supply chain. heartland express brings together industry experience, state of the art equipment and technology, and good people with a vision to be the best, to serve the truckload transportation needs of the top shippers in america. a leader in transportation and logistics, heartland express provides collaborative truckload transportation service that enables companies to deliver exceptional service across their transportation network to improve customer satisfaction. companies choose heartland express for its award winning on-time pickup and delivery, fleet capacity to cover commitments scaled to their needs, leadership in providing information about their shipments, and its performance in moving beyond the transac
CEO
Michael Gerdin
Website
Christopher Alan StrainVice President of Finance, Treasurer & Chief Financial Officer
David Paul MillisMillis Transfer President & Director
Michael J. GerdinChairman of the Board, President & Chief Executive Officer
Peers— Industrials(7 companies)
Screen sector →| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HTLD◀ | $13.30 | +1.22% | $1.0B | — | -2308.3% | -651.0% | 1500 |
| $888.31 | -3.47% | $409.2B | 43.7 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1523 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | 33.7 | +1848.2% | 1898.2% | 1489 | |
| $171.18 | -2.56% | $230.5B | 31.8 | +974.1% | 759.8% | 1488 | |
| $220.49 | -3.80% | $173.8B | 79.6 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1503 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1504 | |
| $399.44 | -2.12% | $155.1B | 38.9 | +1033.0% | 1489.7% | 1504 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.96% | — | 41.7 | +790.4% | 1138.8% | 1502 |