IVR
Next earnings: Jul 23, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.24%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume1.2× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 49Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
8.08
Open
8.05
Day Range7.97 – 8.09
7.97
8.09
52W Range7.10 – 9.50
7.10
9.50
37% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
2.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
10.2x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.26%
Beta
1.28
Market-like
Performance
1D
-1.24%
5D
-0.99%
1M
-5.00%
3M
-8.38%
6M
+4.86%
YTD
-5.11%
1Y
+4.04%
Best: 6M (+4.86%)Worst: 3M (-8.38%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev -26% · 59% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 10x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.0 (low) · FCF $1.88/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$571.71M
Revenue TTM$280.73M
Net Income TTM$61.76M
Free Cash Flow$164.42M
Gross Margin59.4%
Net Margin22.0%
Operating Margin60.9%
Return on Equity7.8%
Return on Assets1.0%
Debt / Equity6.09
Current Ratio0.01
EPS TTM$0.71
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Federal Reserve policy shifts and forward guidance on rate trajectory - affects both asset yields and financing costs asymmetrically

Mortgage spread movements relative to Treasury yields - agency MBS spreads typically 100-200bp over comparable Treasuries

Prepayment speed trends driven by refinancing activity - faster prepayments force reinvestment at lower yields in declining rate environments

Book value per share changes driven by mark-to-market on MBS portfolio and hedge effectiveness

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Agency mREITs are less sensitive to credit cycles due to government guarantees on underlying mortgages, but economic conditions affect prepayment behavior and Fed policy. Recession typically brings rate cuts (beneficial for asset values) but may compress spreads if flight-to-quality narrows MBS spreads.

Interest Rates

Extreme sensitivity to both rate levels and volatility. Rising rates decrease MBS portfolio values (duration typically 3-5 years) but eventually improve reinvestment yields and may slow prepayments. Falling rates increase asset values but accelerate refinancing, forcing reinvestment at lower yields. Yield curve flattening compresses the spread between long-term asset yields and short-term financing costs. The company uses interest rate swaps and swaptions to hedge, but perfect hedges are impossible given prepayment optionality embedded in mortgages.

Key Risks

Secular compression of agency MBS spreads as Fed balance sheet normalization reduces demand for mortgage securities - Fed historically held $2.5+ trillion in MBS

Potential GSE reform reducing implicit government backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, though this has been discussed for decades without material change

Increased competition from banks and asset managers deploying capital into agency MBS as regulatory capital requirements evolve

Investor Profile

dividend - mREITs are structured to distribute 90%+ of taxable income as dividends to maintain REIT status. Attracts income-focused investors willing to accept book value volatility and dividend variability. The 0.7x price/book suggests value investors may see opportunity if book value stabilizes, though this discount often persists due to structural challenges in the agency mREIT model.

Watch on Earnings
3-month SOFR or repo rates - directly impacts financing costs on leveraged portfolio10-year Treasury yield - proxy for long-term mortgage rates and portfolio duration exposure30-year fixed mortgage rate - drives refinancing activity and prepayment speedsAgency MBS spreads to Treasuries (current coupon spreads) - typically quoted for Fannie Mae 30-year pass-throughs
Health Radar
1 strong5 concern
23/100
Liquidity
0.01Concern
Leverage
6.09Concern
Coverage
0.8xConcern
ROE
7.8%Concern
ROIC
325.1%Strong
Cash
$56MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE19 analysts
HOLD
+12.8%upside to target
Buy
737%
Hold
947%
Sell
316%
7 Buy (37%)9 Hold (47%)3 Sell (16%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
0 of 5 signals bullish
1/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 49 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.01 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 1.1%

-2.1% vs SMA 50 · -1.0% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI49.0
Neutral territory
MACD-0.03
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$9.50+19.0%
EMA 50
$8.22+3.0%
EMA 200
$8.02+0.5%
Current
$7.98
52W Low
$7.10-11.0%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$7.1037th %ile$9.50
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:5
Dist days:8
Edge:+3 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)2.1M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.9M-13%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$-6215000-$0.97
Low1
FY2024
$203.5M
$203.5M$203.5M
$3.06
±2%
Moderate3
FY2025
$119.6M
$119.6M$119.6M
-41.2%$2.42-21.0%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryIVR
Last 8Q
-1.2%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
+15%
Q3'24
-14%
Q4'24
-28%
Q1'25
+14%
Q2'25
+4%
Q3'25
+4%
Q4'25
-3%
Q1'26
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
4 Buys/2 SellsNet Buying
NET BUYERS$14K bought · $0 sold · 30d window
Gregson Mark WilliamCFO
$14K
May 5
BUY
Waldner RobertDir
$8K
Feb 27
BUY
Fleshman Robert LDir
$49K
Nov 10
SELL
Lientz James R JrDir
$21K
Dec 9
SELL
Phegley Richard Lee…CFO
$20K
May 9
BUY
Anzalone JohnCEO
$25K
May 10
BUY
Financials
Dividends19.05% yield
2 yrs of payments
Annual Yield19.05%
Monthly Div.$0.1200
Est. Annual / Share$1.44
FrequencyMonthly
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
7.2M
2
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.
2.4M
3
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP
2.2M
4
Invesco Ltd.
2.2M
5
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
1.8M
6
STATE STREET CORP
1.4M
7
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.
1.1M
8
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP
970K
News & Activity

IVR News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

invesco mortgage capital inc. is an independent mortgage real estate investment trust (mreit or mortgage reit) company. it has offices in atlanta, georgia, u.s.a and louisville, kentucky, u.s.a. the company is listed on the new york stock exchange (nyse) with the stock ticker “ivr”. as a mortgage real estate investment trust company, ivr seeks to deliver incremental investment value to shareholders by using their notable expertise and distinctive resources to pursue a high level of continual income derived from real estate related investments. it acquires, finances and manages residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans within the real estate related investment realm. ivr is externally managed and advised by invesco advisers, inc., a subsidiary of invesco ltd. (nyse: ivz), a leading independent global investment management company.

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
CEO
John Anzalone
David LylePresident
Tina CarewVice President, General Counsel & Company Secretary
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
IVR
$7.98-1.24%$572M11.3+316.7%2981.8%1500
$297.81-0.70%$798.0B14.1+330.7%2039.3%1503
$325.75+1.00%$624.4B28.0+1134.0%5014.5%1500
$494.20+0.87%$436.7B28.3+1641.6%4564.7%1490
$49.77-0.16%$353.2B11.4-45.1%1592.6%1495
$192.51-1.04%$303.6B16.6+1147.7%1466.4%1526
$948.47-2.11%$279.8B15.9-138.4%1373.0%1526
Sector avg-0.48%18.0+626.8%2718.9%1506