System-wide same-store sales growth (comps) - primary driver of franchise royalty revenue
Franchisee financial health and unit growth/closures - impacts long-term royalty stream sustainability
Company-operated restaurant margins and refranchising progress - path to margin recovery
Debt refinancing and leverage reduction - critical given negative equity and 0.51x current ratio
high - QSR traffic is highly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending and employment levels. Jack in the Box's positioning in the value/mid-tier segment makes it vulnerable to trade-down pressure from fast-casual and trade-up competition from pure value players (McDonald's Dollar Menu). Lower-income consumers (core customer base) reduce restaurant frequency during recessions. Current negative margins amplify cyclical sensitivity as fixed costs cannot be covered during traffic declines.
High sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Elevated debt load (Debt/Equity of -3.33 indicates negative equity) makes refinancing costs critical to survival; (2) Franchisee financing costs affect new unit development and existing operator profitability; (3) Rising rates reduce valuation multiples for cash-flow-based franchise models. Current 0.51x current ratio suggests near-term liquidity pressure if rates remain elevated.
Minimum wage inflation in California and Western states (core markets) - directly impacts franchisee profitability and royalty sustainability, with CA $20 fast-food minimum wage effective 2024
Delivery aggregator dependence and commission pressure - third-party delivery (DoorDash, Uber Eats) now represents 10-15% of QSR sales but carries 25-30% commission rates that compress unit economics
Consumer shift toward health-conscious eating and away from traditional fast food - Jack in the Box's menu skews toward indulgent items (tacos, burgers, late-night)
value/distressed - Current 0.3x P/S and negative P/B attract deep-value investors betting on operational turnaround or restructuring. Recent 54.6% 3-month return suggests distressed/event-driven funds are active. Not suitable for growth or dividend investors given negative margins and no dividend capacity. Requires high risk tolerance and belief in franchise model recovery.
Trend
-11.2% vs SMA 50 · -37.1% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $1.7B $1.6B–$1.8B | — | $5.71 | — | ±9% | High7 |
FY2024 | $1.6B $1.5B–$1.6B | ▼ -4.5% | $6.16 | ▲ +7.8% | ±1% | High15 |
FY2025 | $1.5B $1.4B–$1.5B | ▼ -7.7% | $4.59 | ▼ -25.4% | ±2% | High14 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
JACK News
About
jack in the box inc. (nasdaq: jack), based in san diego, is a restaurant company that operates and franchises jack in the box® restaurants, one of the nation’s largest hamburger chains, with more than 2,200 restaurants in 21 states and guam. additionally, through a wholly owned subsidiary, the company operates and franchises qdoba mexican eats®, a leader in fast-casual dining, with more than 600 restaurants in 47 states, the district of columbia and canada. join jack in the box’s mission to make the world a more delicious place. because everyone should experience a buttery jack for lunch, or an oreo cookie ice cream shake on a hot day (or any given day). it’s important to us that you’re as happy as our customers. we want you to try new things on our menu, figure out your favorites, and share them with the world. and if you want to take the next step in your career, we’ll help you set goals and develop skills to ensure you get there. even after more than sixty years of business, we’re s
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JACK◀ | $10.87 | -1.00% | $207M | 5.9 | -674.5% | -550.9% | 1500 |
| $264.14 | -1.15% | $2.8T | 31.3 | +1237.8% | 1083.4% | 1521 | |
| $422.24 | -4.75% | $1.6T | 352.3 | -293.1% | 400.1% | 1507 | |
| $297.51 | -2.25% | $296.3B | 20.9 | +324.0% | 859.6% | 1477 | |
| $276.39 | +0.52% | $196.4B | 22.6 | +372.3% | 3185.0% | 1478 | |
| $147.43 | +0.05% | $163.2B | 30.2 | +711.9% | 910.0% | 1494 | |
| $218.42 | -2.32% | $122.3B | 18.3 | +312.2% | 771.2% | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.56% | — | 68.8 | +284.4% | 951.2% | 1495 |