Residential lot sales volume and average selling prices in key communities (Watersound Origins, SouthWood, WindMark Beach)
New community announcements and development pipeline expansion in Bay and Walton counties
Commercial lease signings and occupancy rates at Pier Park and other retail/industrial properties
Northwest Florida population growth and migration trends (particularly from Atlanta, Birmingham, and other Southeast metros)
high - Residential lot sales are highly correlated with housing market strength, consumer confidence, and wealth effects. Discretionary second-home and retirement buyers (key demographics for coastal Florida) pull back sharply during recessions. Commercial leasing demand follows regional economic growth and retail health. However, Northwest Florida's population growth and relative affordability versus South Florida provide some countercyclical support.
Rising mortgage rates directly reduce homebuyer affordability, slowing lot absorption and pressuring pricing. A 100bp increase in 30-year mortgage rates typically reduces buyer purchasing power by 10-12%, impacting demand for $300,000-1,000,000+ homesites. Higher rates also increase St. Joe's cost of capital for infrastructure development and reduce REIT-style valuation multiples applied to commercial leasing NOI. Conversely, falling rates stimulate lot sales velocity and support premium pricing.
Climate change and hurricane risk exposure - Northwest Florida faces increasing storm frequency/severity, potentially raising insurance costs, limiting mortgage availability, and reducing buyer demand for coastal properties
Regulatory and environmental permitting constraints - Wetlands regulations, coastal construction control lines, and water quality rules can delay or prevent development of remaining land bank
Remote work normalization reducing second-home demand - If remote work trends reverse, demand from out-of-state buyers seeking Florida lifestyle properties could weaken
growth - Investors are attracted to St. Joe's land bank optionality, Northwest Florida demographic tailwinds, and potential for accelerating development as the region matures. The 47.9% one-year return and 8.3x P/S ratio reflect growth expectations rather than current earnings. Minimal dividend yield (not a cash cow) and high valuation multiples indicate market is pricing in substantial future development upside. Stock appeals to thematic investors betting on Florida migration trends and coastal real estate scarcity.
Trend
-9.8% vs SMA 50 · +5.3% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $121.0M $96.8M–$145.2M | — | -$0.35 | — | ±37% | High18 |
FY2026(current) | $86.1M $86.1M–$86.1M | ▼ -28.8% | $0.25 | — | — | Low1 |
FY2027 | $91.4M $91.4M–$91.4M | ▲ +6.2% | $0.08 | ▼ -68.0% | — | Low1 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - May 2, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights l…
the st. joe company is a florida-based real estate developer and manager. the company owns land concentrated primarily in northwest florida and has significant residential and commercial land-use entitlements in hand or in process. the company also owns various commercial, resort and club properties. our land and natural assets combined with our strategic vision for northwest florida are helping us create long-term value for our shareholders. we develop resort and residential communities for those who want to live, work and play near the region's beautiful white sand beaches. our commercial and industrial developments are helping bring jobs and economic growth to the region. in addition, the company manages timber operations on thousands of acres and offers certain rural acreage for sale. we believe that the future of florida is bright and the st. joe company will have a key role in northwest florida's growth for many years to come.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JOE◀ | $61.74 | -4.38% | $3.5B | 31.7 | +2745.9% | 2252.5% | 1500 |
| $216.91 | -0.20% | $153.1B | 107.8 | +3582.4% | 878.3% | 1512 | |
| $141.41 | -0.43% | $131.8B | 35.4 | +717.6% | 3880.1% | 1503 | |
| $1085.03 | +0.20% | $107.0B | 75.1 | +585.3% | 1457.9% | 1524 | |
| $181.61 | -0.60% | $84.6B | 29.4 | +511.4% | 2376.5% | 1493 | |
| $200.70 | +0.23% | $69.0B | 50.3 | +1004.0% | 2140.8% | 1519 | |
| $202.44 | -0.62% | $65.8B | 14.3 | +671.9% | 7251.1% | 1510 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.83% | — | 49.1 | +1402.6% | 2891.0% | 1509 |