US nonfarm payroll trends and unemployment rate - staffing demand correlates directly with labor market tightness and corporate hiring activity
Gross margin trends (bill rate vs. pay rate spread) - compression from wage inflation or pricing competition drives profitability swings
Industrial production and manufacturing PMI - Kelly's industrial staffing segment (largest revenue contributor) tracks factory activity and logistics volumes
Corporate restructuring announcements - cost reduction programs or branch closures signal management response to margin pressure
high - Staffing is among the most cyclically sensitive industries, as temporary labor is typically the first expense cut during economic slowdowns and first added during expansions. Industrial staffing (Kelly's largest segment) correlates closely with manufacturing output and GDP growth. The -1.9% revenue decline reflects current economic softness. Historical patterns show staffing revenues can decline 15-25% in recessions as companies reduce contingent workforce before permanent headcount.
Rising interest rates negatively impact Kelly through two channels: (1) higher financing costs for working capital facilities used to fund payroll between placement and client payment (typically 30-60 day lag), and (2) reduced corporate hiring budgets as clients face higher cost of capital and tighter financial conditions. However, debt/equity of 0.16 suggests minimal leverage, limiting direct interest expense impact. Valuation multiples compress as rates rise, particularly for low-growth, low-margin businesses.
Commoditization of low-skill staffing segments driving permanent margin compression - digital platforms and gig economy alternatives (Indeed, LinkedIn, Upwork) reduce barriers to entry and pricing power
Automation and AI reducing demand for temporary administrative and light industrial roles - robotic process automation and warehouse automation threaten core placement volumes
Regulatory risk from employment classification changes - AB5-style legislation or federal independent contractor rules could increase costs or limit business model flexibility
value/distressed - The stock trades at extreme distressed valuations (0.1x P/S, 0.3x P/B) with 35.7% FCF yield, attracting deep value investors betting on operational turnaround or liquidation value. Not suitable for growth or dividend investors given negative earnings and suspended/minimal dividends. Requires high risk tolerance and belief in management's ability to restructure to profitability. Recent -30.5% one-year return and -33.4% six-month return indicate capitulation selling, potentially creating contrarian opportunity.
Trend
+3.1% vs SMA 50 · +0.4% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $4.8B $4.8B–$4.9B | — | $1.84 | — | ±4% | Moderate4 |
FY2024 | $4.3B $4.3B–$4.3B | ▼ -11.1% | $1.96 | ▲ +6.3% | ±5% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $4.2B $4.2B–$4.3B | ▼ -1.3% | $1.57 | ▼ -19.9% | ±2% | Moderate3 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
KELYA News
About
Kelly Services, Inc. connects talented people to companies in need of their skills in areas including Science, Engineering, Education, Office, Contact Center, Light Industrial, and more. Kelly Services is always thinking about what's next in the evolving world of work, and helps people ditch the script on old ways of thinking and embrace the value of all workstyles in the workplace. Kelly Services directly employs nearly 440,000 people around the world, and connects thousands more with work through its global network of talent suppliers and partners in its outsourcing and consulting practice. Revenue in 2019 was $5.4 billion.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9.60 | +0.41% | $333M | — | -186.8% | -597.8% | 1500 | |
| $888.31 | -3.47% | $409.2B | 43.7 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1523 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | 33.7 | +1848.2% | 1898.2% | 1489 | |
| $171.18 | -2.56% | $230.5B | 31.8 | +974.1% | 759.8% | 1488 | |
| $220.49 | -3.80% | $173.8B | 79.6 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1503 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1504 | |
| $399.44 | -2.12% | $155.1B | 38.9 | +1033.0% | 1489.7% | 1504 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.08% | — | 41.7 | +1093.5% | 1146.4% | 1502 |