LUMN
Earnings in 2 days · May 5, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+5.43%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.9× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 70Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
8.84
Open
8.89
Day Range8.74 – 9.45
8.74
9.45
52W Range3.37 – 11.95
3.37
11.95
69% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
13.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-5.3x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.15%
Beta
0.96
Market-like
Performance
1D
+5.43%
5D
+4.95%
1M
+33.33%
3M
+4.37%
6M
-9.34%
YTD
+19.95%
1Y
+146.56%
Best: 1Y (+146.56%)Worst: 6M (-9.34%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -5% YoY
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
MODERATE
CR 1.8 · FCF $0.37/sh
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$9.60B
Revenue TTM$12.40B
Net Income TTM-$1.74B
Free Cash Flow$371.00M
Gross Margin24.3%
Net Margin-14.0%
Operating Margin-1.5%
Return on Equity268.0%
Return on Assets-5.1%
Debt / Equity-15.85
Current Ratio1.80
EPS TTM$-1.75
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

AI infrastructure partnership announcements and associated revenue commitments (recent Microsoft, Meta partnerships drove 50%+ stock appreciation)

Fiber route mile expansion and metro fiber penetration rates in high-value markets (Chicago, Dallas, Phoenix corridors)

Legacy revenue decline trajectory versus fiber/edge revenue growth acceleration (inflection point critical for valuation re-rating)

Free cash flow generation and debt reduction progress (net debt ~$18-20B, leverage ratio ~4.0x EBITDA)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Enterprise connectivity demand correlates with business investment cycles and corporate IT spending, showing 6-12 month lag to GDP changes. Recession scenarios reduce new fiber route installations and enterprise upgrade cycles, though existing contracted revenue (60-70% of total) provides stability. AI infrastructure buildout and hyperscaler demand demonstrates counter-cyclical characteristics as cloud migration accelerates regardless of economic conditions. Consumer broadband segment (small portion) shows higher sensitivity to employment and housing activity.

Interest Rates

High interest rate sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) $18-20B debt stack with weighted average cost ~5-6% creates material refinancing risk as debt matures 2026-2030, with each 100bps rate increase adding ~$180-200M annual interest expense; (2) Capital-intensive fiber expansion projects require 12-15% IRR hurdles, making projects less attractive in high-rate environments; (3) Valuation multiple compression as telecom infrastructure trades at premium to risk-free rates - rising 10-year yields reduce relative attractiveness of 4-5% FCF yields. However, contracted revenue streams provide bond-like cash flow stability partially offsetting rate sensitivity.

Key Risks

Accelerating legacy revenue decline (voice, DSL, legacy data services) potentially outpacing fiber revenue growth, creating negative revenue trajectory through 2027-2028 before stabilization

Technological disruption from 5G fixed wireless access (Verizon, T-Mobile) and low-earth orbit satellite broadband (Starlink) reducing demand for wireline connectivity in certain use cases

Regulatory risk from potential net neutrality reinstatement, universal service fund contribution increases, and state-level broadband infrastructure subsidies favoring competitors

Investor Profile

value/turnaround - Stock attracts deep value investors betting on successful legacy-to-fiber transition, distressed debt investors monitoring credit trajectory, and momentum traders responding to AI infrastructure partnership announcements. Recent 60%+ rally driven by AI narrative revaluation and hyperscaler demand speculation. High-risk profile given leverage and execution uncertainty, but potential multi-bagger returns if fiber revenue inflection materializes and debt reduction progresses. Not suitable for income investors despite historical dividend (suspended 2023) or conservative growth investors given negative earnings and cash burn risk.

Watch on Earnings
Enterprise fiber revenue growth rate (quarterly sequential and YoY)Fiber route miles activated and on-net building additions in metro marketsLegacy revenue decline rate and inflection point timingAdjusted EBITDA margin trajectory (currently 35-38% range)
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
45/100
Liquidity
1.80Watch
Leverage
-15.85Strong
Coverage
-0.1xConcern
ROE
268.0%Strong
ROIC
-0.4%Concern
Cash
$1.0BConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE26 analysts
HOLD
-22.2%downside to target
L $6.00
Med $7.25consensus
H $8.00
Buy
415%
Hold
1558%
Sell
727%
4 Buy (15%)15 Hold (58%)7 Sell (27%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
6/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 70 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.80 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 4, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 31, 2026
In 89 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 4.6%

+25.2% vs SMA 50 · +31.0% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI69.7
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.50
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$11.95+28.2%
Current
$9.32
EMA 50
$7.89-15.4%
EMA 200
$6.80-27.1%
52W Low
$3.37-63.8%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$3.3769th %ile$11.95
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:1
Dist days:2
Edge:+1 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)10.8M
Recent Vol (5D)
8.1M-26%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 8 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$12.4B
$12.3B$12.5B
-$0.63
±4%
High8
FY2026(current)
$10.9B
$10.7B$11.1B
-11.8%-$0.59
±50%
High7
FY2027
$10.5B
$10.0B$10.8B
-3.8%-$0.27
±50%
High7
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 6 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryLUMN
Last 8Q
-89.7%avg beat
Beat 6 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates falling
-1376%
Q2'24
-44%
Q3'24
+35%
Q4'24
+280%
Q1'25
+55%
Q2'25
+88%
Q3'25
+35%
Q4'25
+210%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d01
Raymond JamesOutperform → Market Perform
Feb 4
DOWNGRADE
CitigroupBuy → Neutral
Oct 31
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesMarket Perform → Outperform
May 5
UPGRADE
Wells FargoBuy → Underweight
Aug 16
DOWNGRADE
Goldman SachsSell → Neutral
Aug 7
UPGRADE
CitigroupNeutral → Reduce
Aug 6
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesMarket Perform
Jun 6
UPGRADE
Wells FargoBuy
Oct 5
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
5 Buys/1 SellNet Buying
Linear DiankhaDir
$355K
Feb 20
SELL
Johnson Kathleen EDir
$500K
Feb 5
BUY
Stansbury Christoph…EVP and CFO
$75K
Aug 15
BUY
Stansbury Christoph…EVP and CFO
$77K
Aug 14
BUY
Stansbury Christoph…EVP and CFO
$51K
Aug 15
BUY
Stansbury Christoph…EVP and CFO
$51K
Aug 14
BUY
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
8.8M
2
Nuveen, LLC
5.4M
3
VAUGHAN NELSON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P.
5.3M
4
Sequoia Financial Advisors, LLC
1.3M
5
SG Americas Securities, LLC
1.2M
6
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
804K
7
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
632K
8
LEE DANNER & BASS INC
602K
News & Activity

LUMN News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

we are a global company of approximately 38,000 professionals, dedicated to empowering businesses to produce amazing things. driven by the challenges and opportunities of the 4th industrial revolution, we’re helping to change how people interact and how companies acquire, analyze and act on data with flexible, intelligent, secure and collaborative solutions built for the next generation of business.to learn more about our ambitious mission and data-driven approach to business solutions, visit www.lumen.com.

CEO
Jeffrey Storey
Kathleen E. JohnsonCEO & Director
Christopher David StansburyPresident & CFO
David ShacochisVice President of Product Management
PeersCommunication Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
LUMN
$9.32+5.43%$9.6B-538.6%-1402.2%1500
$385.69+0.23%$4.7T29.1+1512.6%3280.0%1522
$383.22+0.34%$4.6T29.1+1512.6%3280.0%1521
$608.75-0.52%$1.5T21.9+2216.7%3008.4%1498
$92.06-1.66%$387.6B29.1+1585.1%2430.4%1487
$196.06+0.29%$212.2B20.5+848.8%1244.7%1492
$48.11+0.17%$202.9B11.7+252.5%1242.8%1513
Sector avg+0.61%23.6+1055.7%1869.1%1505