MDGL
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move-3.12%Selling pressure
Volume
1
Volume1.5× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 61Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
518.66
Open
518.22
Day Range497.23 – 522.01
497.23
522.01
52W Range265.00 – 615.00
265.00
615.00
68% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
226.2K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-39.1x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.11
Market-like
Performance
1D
-3.12%
5D
-3.11%
1M
-5.88%
3M
+8.43%
6M
+5.59%
YTD
-13.72%
1Y
+64.00%
Best: 1Y (+64.00%)Worst: YTD (-13.72%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +432% YoY · 94% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
WEAK
CR 4.0 · FCF negative
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$11.53B
Revenue TTM$958.40M
Net Income TTM-$288.28M
Free Cash Flow-$190.02M
Gross Margin94.1%
Net Margin-30.1%
Operating Margin-31.3%
Return on Equity-43.8%
Return on Assets-22.9%
Debt / Equity0.59
Current Ratio4.01
EPS TTM$-12.85
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Weekly prescription data (TRx and NBRx trends) from IQVIA and Symphony Health tracking Rezdiffra uptake velocity

Payer coverage decisions and prior authorization requirements from major commercial and Medicare Part D plans affecting patient access

Clinical data readouts from ongoing studies including PBC Phase 3 trial and long-term NASH outcomes data

Quarterly revenue beats or misses relative to Street estimates, with particular focus on patient persistency rates and average selling price realization

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Prescription pharmaceutical demand for chronic liver disease treatment demonstrates minimal correlation with GDP fluctuations. NASH patients typically require long-term therapy regardless of economic conditions, and the disease severity (fibrosis) creates clinical urgency. However, commercial insurance coverage and patient out-of-pocket costs can be affected by employment levels and insurance churn during economic downturns, potentially impacting uptake velocity at the margin.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create moderate headwinds through two mechanisms: (1) Higher discount rates compress valuation multiples for unprofitable growth companies, particularly impacting the 14.8x price-to-sales multiple which reflects expectations for future profitability; (2) Increased financing costs affect the company's ability to raise capital efficiently, though the current 3.44x current ratio and $1.9B cash position (implied from balance sheet metrics) provides substantial runway. The 0.55x debt-to-equity ratio suggests manageable debt service exposure.

Key Risks

GLP-1 receptor agonist class expansion into NASH indication could fundamentally alter treatment paradigm, with tirzepatide and semaglutide showing liver fat reduction in trials and potentially offering multi-disease benefits (diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular) that Rezdiffra cannot match

Medicare Part D negotiation provisions under Inflation Reduction Act could pressure pricing power once Rezdiffra reaches negotiation eligibility in 2031-2033 timeframe

Long-term safety signals in real-world use could emerge given thyroid hormone mechanism, requiring ongoing pharmacovigilance and potentially limiting prescriber adoption

Investor Profile

growth - The stock attracts growth-oriented investors focused on commercial execution of novel therapeutics in large addressable markets. The 42.4% one-year return and negative profitability metrics indicate momentum-driven trading based on revenue inflection expectations rather than value or income characteristics. High volatility reflects binary risk around prescription uptake velocity, competitive threats, and path to profitability. Institutional holders likely include healthcare-focused hedge funds and biotech specialists rather than broad index funds given the concentrated single-product risk profile.

Watch on Earnings
Weekly TRx and NBRx prescription volumes from IQVIA/Symphony Health data servicesQuarterly net revenue and gross-to-net percentage indicating payer reimbursement trendsOperating cash burn rate and quarters of cash runway remainingPayer coverage percentage (lives covered) and prior authorization approval rates
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
39/100
Liquidity
4.01Strong
Leverage
0.59Strong
Coverage
-13.5xConcern
ROE
-43.8%Concern
ROIC
-31.6%Concern
Cash
$199MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE23 analysts
BUY
+28.4%upside to target
L $571.00
Med $645.00consensus
H $964.00
Buy
2087%
Hold
29%
Sell
14%
20 Buy (87%)2 Hold (9%)1 Sell (4%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 61 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 4.01 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 6, 2026
In 92 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 3.2%

+5.7% vs SMA 50 · +9.0% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI61.1
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD-23.79
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$615.0+22.4%
EMA 50
$512.8+2.0%
Current
$502.5
EMA 200
$411.5-18.1%
52W Low
$265.0-47.3%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$265.068th %ile$615.0
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:5
Dist days:4
Edge:+1 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)328K
Recent Vol (5D)
375K+15%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 12 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$949.5M
$941.0M$956.1M
-$11.04
±17%
High12
FY2026(current)
$1.5B
$1.4B$1.5B
+55.6%-$4.65
±50%
High11
FY2027
$2.2B
$1.9B$2.3B
+47.7%$12.78
±50%
High11
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryMDGL
Last 8Q
-821.3%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
-22%
Q2'24
+6%
Q3'24
+29%
Q4'24
+37%
Q1'25
+8%
Q2'25
+45%
Q3'25
-149%
Q4'25
-6525%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Wolfe ResearchOutperform → Peer Perform
Jan 6
DOWNGRADE
Cantor FitzgeraldNeutral → Overweight
Nov 4
UPGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Underperform → Neutral
Nov 3
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesMarket Perform
Dec 19
UPGRADE
B. RileyBuy
Jul 8
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Dier MardiEVP and CFO
$279K
Mar 6
SELL
Dier MardiEVP and CFO
$17K
Mar 6
SELL
Dier MardiEVP and CFO
$179K
Mar 6
SELL
Dier MardiEVP and CFO
$34K
Mar 6
SELL
Dier MardiEVP and CFO
$69K
Mar 6
SELL
Dier MardiEVP and CFO
$17K
Mar 6
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Pictet Asset Management Holding SA
187K
2
Candriam S.C.A.
85K
3
Nuveen, LLC
62K
4
Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd.
41K
5
EMERALD ADVISERS, LLC
38K
6
EMERALD MUTUAL FUND ADVISERS TRUST
17K
7
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
16K
8
ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC
15K
News & Activity

MDGL News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

madrigal pharmaceuticals inc. is a biotechnology company based out of calle laguna del marquesado nª 19, nave 16 edificio adriana 1ª planta, polígono industrial la resina (villaverde), madrid, community of madrid, spain.

Industry
Research and Development in Biotechnology (except Nanobiotechnology)
CEO
Rebecca Taub
Mardi C. DierExecutive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Shannon KelleyExecutive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
Clint WallaceExecutive Vice President & Chief Human Resources Officer
PeersHealth Care(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
MDGL
$502.47-3.12%$11.5B+43205.3%-3008.0%1500
$68.78-0.30%$13.3B+12626.1%-14525.8%1500
$89.52-1.81%$11.7B+3288.2%-4239.0%1500
$223.06-0.29%$11.4B+6554.5%-2868.8%1500
$74.93-1.91%$10.5B51.9+2325815.3%-19.7%1500
$175.95-3.34%$10.3B28.0+1871.5%680.1%1500
$52.58-3.92%$10.2B34.0+1459.3%147.7%1500
Sector avg-2.10%37.9+342117.2%-3404.8%1500