Acquisition volume and cap rates on new property purchases relative to cost of capital
Tenant credit quality and lease renewal rates, particularly for properties with near-term expirations
Changes in REIT yield spreads versus 10-year Treasuries, which drive valuation multiples
Dividend coverage and distribution growth announcements given REIT investor focus on yield
moderate - While triple-net leases provide contractual cash flow insulation during downturns, tenant creditworthiness and renewal economics are cyclically sensitive. Necessity-based retail and industrial tenants are more recession-resistant than discretionary retail or office, but economic weakness increases tenant default risk and reduces re-leasing demand. Acquisition opportunities often improve during downturns as pricing becomes more favorable, but access to capital may tighten. The diversified property type exposure moderates but does not eliminate cyclical sensitivity.
Rising interest rates negatively impact Modiv through multiple channels: (1) higher borrowing costs reduce acquisition returns and FFO if the company uses floating-rate debt or refinances maturing obligations, (2) higher Treasury yields compress REIT valuation multiples as investors demand higher yields to compensate for risk-free rate increases, making the stock less attractive relative to bonds, and (3) higher cap rates in the transaction market reduce property values and create mark-to-market NAV pressure. The 0.00 debt-to-equity ratio suggests minimal current leverage, but future growth likely requires debt financing. REITs typically trade inversely to interest rate movements.
E-commerce disruption continues to pressure necessity-based retail tenants, potentially leading to store closures, bankruptcy filings, or reduced willingness to renew leases at favorable terms, particularly for smaller regional or local retailers
Office property obsolescence risk as hybrid work models reduce space demand, making office assets harder to re-lease and potentially requiring capital investment for repositioning or conversion to alternative uses
Net-lease REIT sector commoditization with numerous public and private competitors pursuing similar strategies, compressing acquisition cap rates and reducing opportunities for differentiated returns
value/dividend - The 0.9x price-to-book ratio suggests the stock trades below net asset value, attracting value investors seeking discounted real estate exposure. REIT investors typically prioritize dividend yield and distribution growth, making income-focused investors the primary audience. The 11.8% FCF yield is attractive for yield-seekers. However, the small market cap, minimal trading volume, and lack of analyst coverage limit institutional participation, making this primarily a retail and small-cap value investor stock.
Trend
+15.0% vs SMA 50 · +34.1% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $46.3M $44.5M–$47.7M | — | -$0.16 | — | ±4% | Moderate3 |
FY2026(current) | $46.5M $44.8M–$48.0M | ▲ +0.6% | $0.09 | — | ±4% | Moderate4 |
FY2027 | $48.4M $45.2M–$51.5M | ▲ +4.0% | $0.13 | ▲ +47.1% | ±4% | High6 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
MDV News
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| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDV◀ | $17.96 | +0.39% | $185M | — | -80.0% | 230.2% | 1500 |
| $213.74 | -1.84% | $150.9B | 106.3 | +3582.4% | 878.3% | 1507 | |
| $140.53 | -1.49% | $131.0B | 35.2 | +717.6% | 3880.1% | 1510 | |
| $1059.44 | -1.87% | $104.5B | 73.3 | +585.3% | 1457.9% | 1531 | |
| $170.63 | +0.08% | $79.5B | 27.6 | +511.4% | 2376.5% | 1484 | |
| $188.51 | -2.25% | $66.2B | 47.2 | +1004.0% | 2140.8% | 1516 | |
| $200.02 | -1.37% | $65.0B | 13.8 | +671.9% | 7251.1% | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.19% | — | 50.6 | +998.9% | 2602.1% | 1508 |