WTI crude oil spot prices and forward curve expectations - every $5 move in WTI impacts annual EBITDA by approximately $40-50M
Quarterly production volumes and ability to maintain flat-to-growing output from mature base (target ~45,000-50,000 BOE/d)
Distribution coverage ratio and sustainability of quarterly unitholder payments (currently yielding 8-12%)
Acquisition announcements and ability to deploy capital into accretive bolt-on purchases in core operating areas
high - As a pure-play E&P operator, MNR is highly sensitive to global economic activity that drives oil demand. Industrial production, manufacturing activity, and transportation fuel consumption directly impact crude oil prices. During recessions, oil demand destruction typically leads to 20-40% price declines, severely impacting cash flows. The company's conventional asset base provides some stability versus shale operators, but commodity price exposure remains the dominant business driver.
Rising interest rates have moderate negative impact through two channels: (1) higher borrowing costs on the company's $400-500M credit facility reduce distributable cash flow by approximately $2-4M annually per 100bps rate increase, and (2) higher rates compress valuation multiples for yield-oriented MLPs as alternative fixed-income investments become more attractive. However, the company's modest leverage (0.59x D/E) limits direct financial impact compared to highly levered peers.
Energy transition and peak oil demand concerns create long-term valuation pressure on fossil fuel producers, particularly those without renewable energy diversification strategies
Mature asset base with 8-12% annual decline rates requires continuous capital investment and successful workovers to maintain production, with limited inventory of low-cost drilling locations
Regulatory risks including potential federal restrictions on drilling permits, methane emission regulations, and state-level production taxes in Oklahoma and New Mexico
value and dividend - MNR attracts income-focused investors seeking high current yield (8-12% distribution yield) and value investors targeting discounted energy exposure trading below book value (0.9x P/B). The MLP structure appeals to tax-advantaged accounts and investors comfortable with K-1 reporting. Strong free cash flow generation (18.6% FCF yield) attracts opportunistic value investors betting on commodity price recovery. Not suitable for ESG-focused or growth-oriented portfolios.
Trend
+7.0% vs SMA 50 · +12.3% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $1.1B $1.1B–$1.1B | — | $1.19 | — | ±29% | Moderate4 |
FY2026(current) | $1.5B $1.4B–$1.6B | ▲ +32.0% | $1.27 | ▲ +6.7% | ±35% | Moderate3 |
FY2027 | $1.5B $1.4B–$1.5B | ▼ -1.8% | $1.46 | ▲ +14.4% | ±26% | Moderate4 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
MNR News
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| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MNR◀ | $14.45 | +0.91% | $2.4B | 10.3 | +2122.1% | 2433.0% | 1500 |
| $404.35 | -3.20% | $2.1T | 30.5 | +3296.8% | 4510.0% | 1500 | |
| $132.58 | -6.05% | $307.9B | 20.7 | -44.8% | 1012.0% | 1500 | |
| $88.38 | -2.58% | $303.7B | 13.6 | +318.8% | 1510.7% | 1500 | |
| $148.08 | -1.13% | $282.6B | 21.0 | +597.3% | 2564.4% | 1500 | |
| $181.58 | -1.83% | $281.6B | 26.9 | +862.9% | 1745.9% | 1500 | |
| $183.40 | -0.23% | $256.1B | 16.8 | +213.3% | 1482.4% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.02% | — | 20.0 | +1052.3% | 2179.7% | 1500 |