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Thesis: Mazda Motor: the story is balanced — North American CX-series crossover sales volumes and transaction prices - CX-5 represents approximately 30% of global…
★ Analysts see FY2028 revenue reaching $5.52T — +3.5% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1North American CX-series crossover sales volumes and transaction prices - CX-5 represents approximately 30% of global volume, with US average transaction prices around $35,000-38,000
2Japanese yen exchange rate fluctuations - estimated 60-65% of production occurs in Japan with exports to North America/Europe creating significant FX translation exposure; ¥10 yen weakening improves operating profit by approximately ¥15-20B
3China joint venture profitability with Changan Mazda and FAW Mazda - China represents 15-20% of volume but has experienced 30%+ declines during 2023-2025 period due to local EV competition
4Electrification roadmap execution - EV penetration targets of 25-40% by 2030 require $10B+ investment but current EV offerings (MX-30) have achieved minimal market traction
5Raw material cost inflation particularly steel, aluminum, and semiconductor availability impacting production schedules and per-unit profitability
6Vehicle sales (approximately 85-90% of revenue): Crossover SUVs (CX-5, CX-50, CX-90) represent estimated 60-65% of unit volume, sedans 20-25%, sports cars 3-5%
7Parts and accessories sales (estimated 5-8% of revenue): Aftermarket components, genuine parts distribution through dealer network
8Financial services and other (estimated 3-5%): Captive finance operations, extended warranties, licensing revenue
value - Mazda trades at 0.2x Price/Sales and 0.5x Price/Book, representing deep value multiples versus Toyota (0.8x P/S) and Honda (0.5x…
Rising interest rates negatively impact demand through higher monthly payments - 100bp rate increase adds approximately $30-40 monthly cost…
Watch on earnings: US light vehicle SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) - industry baseline for demand, Mazda requires 15.5M+ SAAR for volume targets, USD/JPY exchange rate - yen weakness benefits translation of overseas profits; ¥140-150 range provides tailwind versus ¥110-120 headwind, China passenger vehicle retail sales month-over-month - leading indicator for Mazda's 200k annual China volume and joint venture profitability.
One Sentence Summary:
Mazda Motor: the story is balanced — north american cx-series crossover sales volumes and transaction prices - cx-5 represents approximately 30% of global volume.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.