Net interest margin trajectory—compression from deposit beta catch-up and loan repricing dynamics in the current rate environment
Loan portfolio growth rates, particularly commercial real estate originations in the New York metro market
Credit quality metrics including non-performing asset ratios and provision expense, especially for CRE concentrations
Deposit flows and funding costs as customers shift from non-interest bearing to interest-bearing accounts or money market alternatives
moderate - Regional banks are procyclical but less volatile than capital markets-dependent institutions. Loan demand correlates with local economic activity, employment, and real estate transactions in the New York metro area. Credit losses typically lag economic downturns by 6-12 months. Consumer spending and business formation drive commercial deposit growth, while recessions increase provision expense and reduce fee income.
High sensitivity to both rate levels and yield curve shape. As of February 2026, if the Fed has cut rates from 2023-2024 peaks, Northeast Community faces margin compression as assets reprice downward faster than deposit costs decline (negative liability sensitivity typical for thrifts). A steeper yield curve benefits long-duration mortgage lending funded by short-term deposits. Conversely, an inverted curve (as seen in 2023-2024) crushes profitability. The bank's asset-liability management and duration gap positioning determine whether rising rates help or hurt—most thrifts are asset-sensitive but deposit competition limits upside.
Secular decline in branch-based banking as digital competitors and fintech disrupt deposit gathering—small thrifts lack scale for technology investment
Regulatory burden disproportionately affects sub-$10B banks with limited compliance resources, compressing returns on equity
Disintermediation risk as depositors shift to higher-yielding money market funds, Treasuries, or online banks during elevated rate environments
value - Trading at 0.9x book value attracts deep value investors betting on mean reversion, M&A takeout premium, or NIM stabilization. The 14.8% FCF yield (if sustainable) appeals to income-focused value investors, though dividend sustainability depends on earnings stability. Not a growth story given -1.6% revenue decline and competitive market saturation. Recent 23.7% three-month return suggests tactical momentum interest or M&A speculation.
Trend
+11.9% vs SMA 50 · +16.5% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $105.0M $101.9M–$108.1M | — | $3.29 | — | ±4% | Low1 |
FY2026(current) | $107.4M $104.2M–$110.6M | ▲ +2.3% | $3.21 | ▼ -2.3% | ±4% | Low1 |
FY2027 | $116.8M $113.3M–$120.3M | ▲ +8.7% | $3.48 | ▲ +8.1% | ±4% | Low1 |
Dividend per payment — last 7 periods
NEW YORK, May 04, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Levi & Korsinsky, LLP reminds purchasers of Super Micro C…
northeast community bancorp, inc. operates as the holding company for northeast community bank that provides various financial services to consumers and businesses. the company accepts deposit products, such as checking, money market, savings, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. its loan products include multi-family, mixed-use, and real estate loans; commercial and industrial loans; construction loans; consumer loans; passbook, term, small business administration, and cooperative building loans; and revolving lines of credit. the company also offers various atm/debit, credit, and gift cards; and investment advisory and financial planning, direct and remote deposit, wire transfer, automated clearing house, credit card merchant, coin and currency, and cash management services, as well as internet, mobile, and telephone banking services. it operates three full-service branches in new york; three full-service branches in massachusetts; one full service
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NECB◀ | $23.73 | -1.74% | $328M | 7.1 | -155.0% | 2822.3% | 1500 |
| $307.65 | -1.54% | $829.7B | 14.6 | +330.7% | 2039.3% | 1502 | |
| $326.85 | -0.36% | $626.5B | 28.1 | +1134.0% | 5014.5% | 1498 | |
| $504.74 | +1.87% | $446.8B | 28.9 | +1641.6% | 4564.7% | 1488 | |
| $52.19 | -1.97% | $374.6B | 11.9 | -45.1% | 1592.6% | 1501 | |
| $188.03 | -1.13% | $298.6B | 16.2 | +1147.7% | 1466.4% | 1516 | |
| $903.27 | -2.21% | $268.0B | 15.2 | -138.4% | 1373.0% | 1515 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.01% | — | 17.4 | +559.4% | 2696.1% | 1503 |