Rio Grande Train 1 construction milestones and timeline updates (mechanical completion, commissioning, first cargo)
New long-term offtake contract announcements for Trains 2-3 (currently ~60% contracted)
Project financing developments including debt raises, equity needs, and FID decisions for subsequent trains
Global LNG supply-demand balance and Asian spot LNG prices (JKM benchmark)
moderate - LNG demand correlates with global industrial activity and power generation needs, particularly in Asia and Europe. Economic slowdowns reduce gas-to-coal switching and industrial consumption, compressing LNG spreads. However, long-term contracts with take-or-pay provisions provide revenue stability regardless of utilization, partially insulating from cyclical demand swings.
High sensitivity to interest rates through multiple channels: (1) project financing costs directly impact debt service on $18.4B Train 1 construction debt, (2) higher rates increase discount rates applied to long-dated cash flows, compressing valuation multiples for development-stage assets, (3) refinancing risk for construction debt as trains reach COD. Current 43.7x debt/equity ratio amplifies rate sensitivity.
Global LNG oversupply risk from 2026-2028 as Qatar North Field, US Gulf Coast, and other mega-projects reach FID, potentially compressing margins and delaying Train 2-3 FID decisions
Energy transition policy risk including potential restrictions on new LNG export permits, carbon pricing mechanisms, or European demand destruction from accelerated renewables deployment
Permitting and regulatory delays for Trains 2-3 given heightened environmental scrutiny of fossil fuel infrastructure and potential changes in federal energy policy
growth/speculative - attracts investors seeking asymmetric upside from successful project execution and LNG market tightening, willing to accept binary construction risk and negative cash flows. Typical holders include energy-focused funds, infrastructure investors, and momentum traders positioning for Train 1 commissioning catalysts. Not suitable for value or income investors given pre-revenue status and negative cash generation.
Trend
+40.7% vs SMA 50 · +26.6% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $0 | — | -$1.73 | — | ±1% | Low1 |
FY2026(current) | $315.6M $306.5M–$324.8M | — | -$2.17 | — | ±50% | Low2 |
FY2027 | $946.4M $919.0M–$973.8M | ▲ +199.8% | -$0.56 | — | ±50% | Low2 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
NEXT News
About
nextdecade, llc, based in the woodlands, texas, is a global development and management company of liquefied natural gas projects. founded in 2010 by kathleen eisbrenner, nextdecade’s world-class team has developed, led, closed and operated industry-leading lng, gas and electricity projects across the globe. nextdecade delivers opportunities for customers to meet their unique needs by providing access to the full spectrum of the lng value chain, including infrastructure development, natural gas supply and project ownership. to fulfill this mission, nextdecade provides commercial flexibility and strategic partnerships inside a company culture that respects the values and needs of customers and the communities in which it operates. nextdecade builds successful projects by bringing together companies, people, and opportunities to assemble the best mix of assets. our current projects include rio grande lng (www.rglng.com) in brownsville, texas and pelican island lng in galveston, texa
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NEXT◀ | $9.12 | +2.24% | $2.4B | — | — | — | 1500 |
| $157.93 | +3.37% | $654.6B | 26.1 | -452.2% | 890.5% | 1501 | |
| $191.06 | +0.00% | $380.5B | — | — | — | 1491 | |
| $122.41 | +0.00% | $149.1B | — | — | — | 1503 | |
| $77.72 | +0.00% | $95.1B | — | — | — | 1500 | |
| $55.38 | +0.00% | $82.8B | — | — | — | 1510 | |
| $33.63 | +0.69% | $74.8B | 22.6 | +1245.3% | 1802.9% | 1496 | |
| Sector avg | — | +0.90% | — | 24.3 | +396.5% | 1346.7% | 1500 |