National HealthCare (NHC)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Medicare reimbursement rate changes under the Patient-Driven Payment Model (PDPM), with annual updates typically announced in late summer affecting October 1 rate years
2. 02Facility occupancy rates and skilled nursing mix (Medicare vs. Medicaid census), with Medicare patients generating 2-3x higher daily rates
3. 03Labor cost inflation and nursing staff availability, particularly registered nurse and certified nursing assistant wage pressures
4. 04Regulatory developments including state Medicaid rate adjustments and quality-based reimbursement initiatives
5. 05Acquisition opportunities and facility expansion in target Southeast markets
6. 06Skilled nursing facility services (Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements, estimated 60-70% of revenue)
7. 07Assisted living and independent living community fees (private pay, estimated 20-30% of revenue)
8. 08Ancillary healthcare services including rehabilitation therapy and pharmacy services (estimated 5-10% of revenue)

NHC Chart

My Notes

• value - The 1.7x price-to-sales and 2.5x price-to-book ratios suggest modest valuation relative to growth prospects…
• Rising interest rates have modest negative impact through higher financing costs for facility acquisitions or renovations…
• Watch on earnings: CMS Medicare skilled nursing facility reimbursement rate updates and PDPM case-mix index trends, Bureau of Labor Statistics healthcare wage inflation data and registered nurse employment trends, State Medicaid reimbursement rate changes in Tennessee, North Carolina, and other key operating states.