NHC
Earnings in 4 days · May 8, 2026 · After close
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move-2.43%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 56Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
174.86
Open
174.08
Day Range168.88 – 174.08
168.88
174.08
52W Range93.54 – 184.08
93.54
184.08
85% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
111.8K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
22.2x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.04%
Beta
0.43
Low vol
Performance
1D
+0.91%
5D
+1.00%
1M
+6.54%
3M
+15.46%
6M
+43.18%
YTD
+27.55%
1Y
+85.82%
Best: 1Y (+85.82%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +17% YoY · 46% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 22x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.8 · FCF $9.61/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.66B
Revenue TTM$1.52B
Net Income TTM$120.02M
Free Cash Flow$148.63M
Gross Margin46.4%
Net Margin7.9%
Operating Margin8.1%
Return on Equity11.6%
Return on Assets7.9%
Debt / Equity0.08
Current Ratio1.77
EPS TTM$7.76
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Medicare reimbursement rate changes under the Patient-Driven Payment Model (PDPM), with annual updates typically announced in late summer affecting October 1 rate years

Facility occupancy rates and skilled nursing mix (Medicare vs. Medicaid census), with Medicare patients generating 2-3x higher daily rates

Labor cost inflation and nursing staff availability, particularly registered nurse and certified nursing assistant wage pressures

Regulatory developments including state Medicaid rate adjustments and quality-based reimbursement initiatives

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Demand for skilled nursing and senior living services is driven by demographic trends (aging population) rather than economic cycles. However, private pay occupancy in assisted living can show modest sensitivity to consumer wealth and confidence. Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements provide stable, counter-cyclical revenue base. The 13.7% revenue growth likely reflects occupancy recovery from pandemic lows and favorable reimbursement adjustments rather than economic expansion.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates have modest negative impact through higher financing costs for facility acquisitions or renovations, though NHC's low 0.12 debt-to-equity ratio minimizes this exposure. Higher rates can also pressure valuation multiples for healthcare REITs and facility operators. Conversely, rate increases may signal stronger economic conditions supporting private pay demand and state tax revenues funding Medicaid programs.

Key Risks

Regulatory reimbursement risk from Medicare payment model changes, Medicaid budget pressures in key states, and increasing quality-based payment adjustments that penalize lower-performing facilities

Demographic shift toward home-based care and aging-in-place preferences reducing institutional care demand, though offset by increasing 85+ population requiring higher acuity services

Litigation risk from patient care quality issues, falls, medication errors, and regulatory compliance failures leading to survey deficiencies

Investor Profile

value - The 1.7x price-to-sales and 2.5x price-to-book ratios suggest modest valuation relative to growth prospects, attracting value investors seeking exposure to demographic tailwinds. The 52.6% net income growth and 65.7% one-year return indicate recent momentum, but the 3.0% FCF yield and healthcare facility focus appeal to investors seeking stable, defensive characteristics with potential dividend growth. Low debt levels and improving profitability metrics attract quality-focused value managers.

Watch on Earnings
CMS Medicare skilled nursing facility reimbursement rate updates and PDPM case-mix index trendsBureau of Labor Statistics healthcare wage inflation data and registered nurse employment trendsState Medicaid reimbursement rate changes in Tennessee, North Carolina, and other key operating statesSenior housing occupancy and absorption trends from NIC MAP data for Southeast markets
Health Radar
2 strong2 watch2 concern
56/100
Liquidity
1.77Watch
Leverage
0.08Strong
Coverage
9.1xStrong
ROE
11.6%Watch
ROIC
7.0%Concern
Cash
$111MConcern
Analyst Coverage

No analyst coverage available for this stock.

Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 4 signals bullish
6/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 56 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.77 — healthy liquidity

1 signal unavailable — limited data for this stock

Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 22.8%

+9.6% vs SMA 50 · +34.6% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI55.9
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+4.87
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$184.1+7.9%
Current
$170.6
EMA 50
$158.5-7.1%
EMA 200
$129.0-24.4%
52W Low
$93.54-45.2%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$93.5485th %ile$184.1
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:5
Edge:+1 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)66K
Recent Vol (5D)
57K-14%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts
Earnings HistoryNHC
Last 8Q
+15.0%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+3%
Q2'10
+15%
Q3'10
+13%
Q4'10
+23%
Q1'11
+1%
Q2'11
Q3'11
+7%
Q4'11
+57%
Q1'12
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/3 SellsNet Selling
Shelly Timothy J.Sr.VP Operatio…
$342K
Dec 17
SELL
Hassan Emil EDir
$1.0M
Nov 25
SELL
Flatt Stephen FowlerDir
$130K
Nov 21
SELL
Financials
Dividends1.50% yield
+2.8% avg annual growth
Annual Yield1.50%
Quarterly Div.$0.6400
Est. Annual / Share$2.56
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
CBOE Vest Financial, LLC
39K
2
Nuveen, LLC
27K
3
Private Advisor Group, LLC
13K
4
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
8K
5
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
8K
6
SG Americas Securities, LLC
7K
7
State of Alaska, Department of Revenue
7K
8
KLP KAPITALFORVALTNING AS
6K
News & Activity

NHC News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

NHC affiliates operate for themselves and third parties 75 skilled nursing facilities with 9,433 beds. NHC affiliates also operate 24 assisted living communities, five independent living communities, one behavioral health hospital, and 35 homecare programs. NHC's other services include Alzheimer's and memory care units, hospice services, pharmacy services, a rehabilitation services company, and providing management and accounting services to third party post-acute operators.

Industry
General Medical and Surgical Hospitals
Stephen Fowler FlattCEO, President & Director
Anderson FlattSenior Vice President & Chief Information Officer
Brian F. KiddSenior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
PeersHealth Care(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
NHC
$170.61+0.91%$2.7B22.5+1638.0%794.5%1500
$68.99-3.59%$13.3B+12626.1%-14525.8%1500
$518.66-0.71%$11.8B+43205.3%-3008.0%1500
$91.17+0.60%$11.5B+3288.2%-4239.0%1500
$182.03-1.59%$10.7B29.2+1871.5%680.1%1500
$223.34-0.59%$10.6B+6554.5%-2868.8%1500
$76.39+1.81%$10.5B51.8+2325815.3%-19.7%1500
Sector avg-0.45%34.5+342142.7%-3312.4%1500