NWE
Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.31%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 48Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
71.93
Open
71.83
Day Range70.93 – 72.44
70.93
72.44
52W Range50.46 – 75.18
50.46
75.18
83% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
387.8K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
26.1x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.05%
Beta
0.32
Low vol
Performance
1D
-1.31%
5D
-0.18%
1M
+4.23%
3M
+1.65%
6M
+16.36%
YTD
+9.99%
1Y
+21.79%
Best: 1Y (+21.79%)Worst: 1D (-1.31%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +9% YoY · 62% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 26x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.7 (low) · FCF negative
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$4.37B
Revenue TTM$1.64B
Net Income TTM$167.58M
Free Cash Flow-$147.94M
Gross Margin61.9%
Net Margin10.2%
Operating Margin19.2%
Return on Equity5.8%
Return on Assets2.0%
Debt / Equity1.13
Current Ratio0.70
EPS TTM$2.73
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

State regulatory commission rate case decisions and allowed ROE levels (Montana PSC, South Dakota PUC rulings)

Rate base growth trajectory driven by transmission/distribution capex and generation modernization investments

Dividend policy and payout ratio sustainability (utilities typically target 60-70% payout ratios)

Weather-driven earnings volatility (heating degree days in winter, cooling degree days in summer) despite decoupling mechanisms

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Regulated utilities exhibit minimal GDP sensitivity due to essential service nature and captive customer base. Residential demand (60-70% of load) is highly inelastic. Commercial/industrial demand shows modest cyclicality but represents smaller revenue portion. Customer growth tracks regional population/housing trends in Montana/South Dakota rather than national economic cycles. Revenue decoupling mechanisms further insulate earnings from volume fluctuations.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create multiple headwinds: (1) Higher financing costs on $2.4B debt balance reduce earnings (though eventually recovered in rates with regulatory lag), (2) Utility stocks trade at premium valuations during low-rate environments due to bond-proxy characteristics - rising 10-year Treasury yields compress P/E multiples as investors rotate to fixed income, (3) New debt issuances to fund $500M annual capex become more expensive, pressuring ROE. However, regulated utilities eventually recover higher interest costs through rate base adjustments, limiting long-term fundamental impact.

Key Risks

Coal generation fleet transition risk: Northwestern operates coal-fired generation assets facing potential early retirement pressure from environmental regulations, renewable energy economics, and state clean energy mandates. Regulatory treatment of stranded asset costs and replacement generation capex will significantly impact rate base growth and customer affordability.

Distributed generation and grid defection: Rooftop solar adoption in Montana/South Dakota (though currently low penetration) threatens volumetric revenue model and could lead to rate design changes that compress margins. Battery storage economics improving could accelerate this trend.

Climate-related physical risks: Wildfire exposure in Montana service territory increases liability risk and requires significant grid hardening capex. Extreme weather events (droughts affecting hydro generation, severe winters) create operational and financial volatility.

Investor Profile

dividend - Northwestern attracts income-focused investors seeking stable, regulated cash flows and consistent dividend payments. The 28.9% one-year return suggests recent multiple expansion driven by falling interest rates making utility yields more attractive. Value investors may find appeal in 1.5x P/B ratio relative to regulated rate base. Growth investors avoid due to low single-digit organic growth profile and capital-intensive business model with limited margin expansion opportunity.

Watch on Earnings
Natural gas spot prices (Henry Hub) - impacts customer bills, regulatory lag, and bad debt expense10-year Treasury yield - primary driver of utility stock valuation multiples and cost of capitalHeating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in Montana/South Dakota - weather-driven demand volatilityMontana and South Dakota population growth rates - drives long-term customer additions and rate base expansion
Health Radar
2 watch4 concern
23/100
Liquidity
0.70Concern
Leverage
1.13Watch
Coverage
2.0xWatch
ROE
5.8%Concern
ROIC
3.8%Concern
Cash
$9MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE17 analysts
HOLD
-1.4%downside to target
L $54.00
Med $70.00consensus
H $75.00
Buy
424%
Hold
1165%
Sell
212%
4 Buy (24%)11 Hold (65%)2 Sell (11%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
6/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 48 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.70 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 6, 2026
In 92 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 17.0%

+4.3% vs SMA 50 · +22.1% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI48.3
Neutral territory
MACD+0.19
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$75.18+5.9%
Current
$70.99
EMA 50
$68.09-4.1%
EMA 200
$58.29-17.9%
52W Low
$50.46-28.9%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$50.4683th %ile$75.18
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:4
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)426K
Recent Vol (5D)
361K-15%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 5 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$1.6B
$1.6B$1.6B
$3.60
±1%
High5
FY2026(current)
$1.7B
$1.7B$1.8B
+8.0%$3.75+4.2%
±1%
Moderate4
FY2027
$1.8B
$1.8B$1.9B
+5.3%$3.98+6.1%
±1%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryNWE
Last 8Q
+2.0%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
+8%
Q3'24
-4%
Q4'24
-3%
Q1'25
+5%
Q2'25
+5%
Q3'25
+5%
Q4'25
-2%
Q1'26
+2%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Wells FargoOverweight → Underweight
Jan 20
DOWNGRADE
BarclaysUnderweight → Overweight
Dec 19
UPGRADE
GuggenheimBuy
Jan 22
UPGRADE
Wells FargoOverweight
Oct 30
UPGRADE
UBSNeutral
Jul 27
DOWNGRADE
Seaport GlobalBuy
Feb 14
UPGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Buy
Sep 29
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/1 SellNet Selling
Cashell Michael RVP - Transmiss…
$136K
May 2
SELL
Financials
Dividends3.73% yield
+1.7% avg annual growth
Annual Yield3.73%
Quarterly Div.$0.6700
Est. Annual / Share$2.68
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
River Road Asset Management, LLC
1.0M
2
UBS Group AG
995K
3
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
755K
4
Nuveen, LLC
487K
5
ProShare Advisors LLC
484K
6
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
225K
7
COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC SCHOOL EMPLS RETRMT SYS
127K
8
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
124K
News & Activity

NWE News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

No description available.

Crystal Dawn LailVice President & Chief Financial Officer
Jeanne VoldVice President of Technology
Bobbi L. SchroeppelVice President of Customer Care, Communications & Human Resources
PeersUtilities(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
NWE
$70.99-1.31%$4.4B26.0+638.5%1124.4%1500
$1085.18+1.98%$294.3B31.4+894.3%1283.0%1527
$95.78+0.81%$200.8B24.6+1100.1%2487.3%1511
$94.67-0.09%$108.1B24.7+1058.6%1468.9%1500
$315.25-0.20%$100.1B43.2+833.8%908.2%1493
$126.29+0.10%$99.3B19.3+619.3%1541.1%1498
$133.98+1.77%$74.5B20.3+937.2%1643.5%1515
Sector avg+0.44%27.1+868.8%1493.8%1506