Net charge-off rates and delinquency trends (30+ day delinquencies as leading indicator)
Loan origination volumes and portfolio growth rates (quarterly originations typically $200M-$300M)
Funding costs and access to securitization markets (ABS execution spreads)
Regulatory developments affecting subprime lending (CFPB actions, state-level APR caps)
high - Oportun's borrower base consists primarily of low-to-moderate income households with limited financial buffers, making credit performance highly sensitive to employment conditions, wage growth, and cost-of-living pressures. During economic downturns, charge-offs can spike 300-500 basis points as borrowers face job losses or reduced hours. Conversely, strong labor markets with rising wages for service-sector and blue-collar workers drive both loan demand and improved repayment capacity.
Oportun faces significant interest rate sensitivity on both sides of its balance sheet. Rising rates increase funding costs through warehouse lines (typically SOFR + 300-400 bps) and securitization execution, compressing net interest margins unless offset by higher loan yields. However, the company cannot easily reprice existing loans, creating lag effects. Additionally, higher rates reduce borrower affordability and increase competition for creditworthy applicants. The company's high debt/equity ratio (7.15x) amplifies the impact of rate changes on profitability.
Regulatory risk from CFPB or state-level APR caps that could restrict pricing on high-cost loans (several states have enacted 36% APR caps for consumer loans)
Technological disruption from larger fintech platforms (SoFi, Upstart, LendingClub) expanding into subprime segments with superior funding costs and customer acquisition efficiency
Secular shift toward buy-now-pay-later products and embedded finance solutions that compete for the same borrower wallet share
value - The stock trades at 0.3x sales and 0.6x book value, attracting deep-value investors betting on a turnaround in credit performance and return to profitability. The distressed valuation reflects significant skepticism about the business model's viability, making this a high-risk/high-reward situation for contrarian investors. The negative operating margins and elevated leverage deter growth and income investors, while the 40% one-year decline attracts some momentum traders on short-term bounces.
Trend
+0.5% vs SMA 50 · +6.9% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $824.0M $815.5M–$834.6M | — | -$3.10 | — | ±2% | Moderate3 |
FY2024 | $998.7M $997.1M–$1.0B | ▲ +21.2% | $0.29 | — | ±8% | Moderate4 |
FY2025 | $952.1M $947.7M–$955.4M | ▼ -4.7% | $1.35 | ▲ +364.8% | ±2% | Moderate4 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
OPRT News
About
oportun was formerly known as progreso financiero. only the name has changed. we continue our commitment to our mission: to provide responsible, affordable loans that help the underserved hispanic community establish credit and build a better future. oportun’s advanced data analytics and technology determines every applicant’s ability to repay, including those who do not have credit, and enables back-office efficiency. the company delivers a very supportive and welcoming service experience with bilingual staff across channels and operates over 170 locations in ca, il, tx, ut and nv. why we do it: we are committed to providing affordable and responsible credit services to the hispanic community. it is estimated that 23 million hispanics in the united states have limited or no credit history. in fact, approximately half of the company’s first-time customers do not have a credit score at all. oportun reports performance of all loans to two of the credit bureaus and enables customers
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OPRT◀ | $5.25 | -2.42% | $240M | 14.2 | +1949.5% | 396.1% | 1500 |
| $297.81 | -0.70% | $798.0B | 14.1 | +330.7% | 2039.3% | 1503 | |
| $325.75 | +1.00% | $624.4B | 28.0 | +1134.0% | 5014.5% | 1500 | |
| $494.20 | +0.87% | $436.7B | 28.3 | +1641.6% | 4564.7% | 1490 | |
| $49.77 | -0.16% | $353.2B | 11.4 | -45.1% | 1592.6% | 1495 | |
| $192.51 | -1.04% | $303.6B | 16.6 | +1147.7% | 1466.4% | 1526 | |
| $948.47 | -2.11% | $279.8B | 15.9 | -138.4% | 1373.0% | 1526 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.65% | — | 18.4 | +860.0% | 2349.5% | 1506 |