ORC
Next earnings: Jul 23, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move-0.87%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 45Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
6.92
Open
6.90
Day Range6.83 – 6.91
6.83
6.91
52W Range6.62 – 8.40
6.62
8.40
13% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
6.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
7.2x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.30%
Beta
0.85
Market-like
Performance
1D
-0.50%
5D
-0.86%
1M
-5.21%
3M
-8.10%
6M
-4.42%
YTD
-3.89%
1Y
-3.62%
Worst: 3M (-8.10%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +549% YoY · 71% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 7x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.1 (low) · FCF $0.76/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.04B
Revenue TTM$339.00M
Net Income TTM$121.95M
Free Cash Flow$143.28M
Gross Margin71.0%
Net Margin36.0%
Operating Margin33.5%
Return on Equity10.2%
Return on Assets1.0%
Debt / Equity8.06
Current Ratio0.09
EPS TTM$0.64
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Federal Reserve policy shifts and forward guidance on short-term rates (directly impacts repo financing costs)

Yield curve steepness (2s10s spread) - steeper curves expand net interest margins for leveraged MBS portfolios

Mortgage rate volatility and prepayment speeds (faster prepayments reduce asset yields and force reinvestment at prevailing rates)

Book value per share changes driven by MBS price fluctuations (rising rates compress book value, falling rates expand it)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Agency MBS REITs are less tied to GDP growth than equity REITs. Performance depends more on interest rate environment than economic expansion. However, recessions typically bring Fed easing which can steepen yield curves and improve spreads. Housing market strength affects prepayment speeds but credit risk remains minimal due to agency guarantees.

Interest Rates

Extreme sensitivity to both rate levels and volatility. Rising short-term rates increase repo financing costs immediately while MBS yields adjust more slowly, compressing NIM. Falling rates can trigger prepayment waves as borrowers refinance, forcing reinvestment at lower yields. The company hedges duration risk with swaps, but basis risk and hedge costs remain. Optimal environment is stable-to-declining long rates with anchored short rates (steep curve). Rate volatility increases hedge costs and reduces profitability.

Key Risks

Federal Reserve balance sheet normalization and reduced MBS purchases can widen agency spreads and reduce liquidity

Potential GSE reform or privatization of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac could alter agency MBS market structure and guarantee frameworks

Secular decline in mortgage origination volumes as housing market matures reduces investable universe and increases competition for assets

Investor Profile

dividend - Attracts income-focused investors seeking high current yields (typically 10-15%+ distribution yields). However, total returns depend heavily on book value stability. Retail investors drawn to headline yield often underestimate interest rate risk and book value volatility. Sophisticated investors use as tactical rate positioning vehicle or pair trade against interest rate views. Not suitable for buy-and-hold given structural leverage and volatility.

Watch on Earnings
2-year/10-year Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) - primary driver of net interest margin potentialFederal Funds effective rate and SOFR - directly determines repo financing costs30-year fixed mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) - drives refinancing activity and prepayment speedsMortgage basis spreads (agency MBS yields vs. Treasury yields) - indicates asset pricing and portfolio mark-to-market
Health Radar
2 watch4 concern
17/100
Liquidity
0.09Concern
Leverage
8.06Concern
Coverage
0.3xConcern
ROE
10.2%Watch
ROIC
11.7%Watch
Cash
$725MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE5 analysts
HOLD
+9.3%upside to target
Hold
5100%
0 Buy (0%)5 Hold (100%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
0 of 5 signals bullish
1/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 45 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.09 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 2.8%

-3.1% vs SMA 50 · -5.8% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI45.3
Neutral territory
MACD-0.04
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$8.40+22.4%
EMA 200
$7.19+4.8%
EMA 50
$7.11+3.6%
Current
$6.86
52W Low
$6.62-3.5%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$6.6213th %ile$8.40
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:1
Dist days:4
Edge:+3 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)6.3M
Recent Vol (5D)
3.6M-43%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 2 analysts

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$-28032000-$1.10
±13%
Low2
FY2024
$200000
$184356$216226
-$0.25
±10%
Low2
FY2025
$99.8M
$98.5M$100.9M
+49820.5%$0.92
±10%
Low2
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryORC
Last 8Q
+30.7%avg beat
Beat 3 of 8 quartersMissed 4
Q3'24
+17%
Q4'24
+267%
Q1'25
-11%
Q2'25
+7%
Q3'25
-11%
Q4'25
-19%
Q1'26
-4%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
5 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
Bitting W ColemanDir
$47
Dec 27
BUY
Bitting W ColemanDir
$54
Nov 28
BUY
Bitting W ColemanDir
$70
Oct 27
BUY
Bitting W ColemanDir
$69
Sep 27
BUY
Bitting W ColemanDir
$68
Aug 29
BUY
Financials
Dividends20.70% yield
2 yrs of payments
Annual Yield20.70%
Monthly Div.$0.1000
Est. Annual / Share$1.20
FrequencyMonthly
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q1'26
Q2'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
17.2M
2
Invesco Ltd.
2.9M
3
NORTHERN TRUST CORP
1.5M
4
UBS Group AG
1.4M
5
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO
1.2M
6
Y-Intercept (Hong Kong) Ltd
579K
7
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
451K
8
Cetera Investment Advisers
431K
News & Activity

ORC News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

orchid island capital inc (orc) is a financial services company located in 3305 flamingo dr, vero beach, fl, united states.

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
CEO
Robert Cauley
George Hunter HaasCFO, Chief Investment Officer, Secretary & Management Director
Jerry SintesVice President & Treasurer
Robert E. CauleyChairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
ORC
$6.86-0.50%$1.0B10.6+22994.5%8859.1%1500
$297.81-0.70%$798.0B14.1+330.7%2039.3%1503
$325.75+1.00%$624.4B28.0+1134.0%5014.5%1500
$494.20+0.87%$436.7B28.3+1641.6%4564.7%1490
$49.77-0.16%$353.2B11.4-45.1%1592.6%1495
$192.51-1.04%$303.6B16.6+1147.7%1466.4%1526
$948.47-2.11%$279.8B15.9-138.4%1373.0%1526
Sector avg-0.38%17.9+3866.4%3558.5%1506