PMT
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.78%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 46Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
12.33
Open
12.22
Day Range12.03 – 12.25
12.03
12.25
52W Range11.15 – 13.81
11.15
13.81
36% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.1M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
12.5x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.13%
Beta
0.95
Market-like
Performance
1D
-1.78%
5D
-0.41%
1M
+1.34%
3M
-2.18%
6M
-0.57%
YTD
-3.51%
1Y
-5.61%
Best: 1M (+1.34%)Worst: 1Y (-5.61%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +148% YoY · 89% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 12x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.0 (low) · FCF negative
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.05B
Revenue TTM$1.25B
Net Income TTM$127.87M
Free Cash Flow-$7.21B
Gross Margin89.2%
Net Margin10.2%
Operating Margin73.5%
Return on Equity6.8%
Return on Assets0.6%
Debt / Equity10.12
Current Ratio0.03
EPS TTM$1.47
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Mortgage rate volatility and the shape of the yield curve (impacts net interest margins and asset valuations)

Credit performance of distressed loan portfolios and CRT securities (delinquency rates, loss severities)

Book value per share changes driven by mark-to-market adjustments on investment portfolio

Dividend sustainability relative to distributable earnings and REIT payout requirements

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - PMT's credit-sensitive mortgage investments are directly exposed to housing market conditions and borrower employment. Economic downturns increase delinquencies and defaults on distressed loan portfolios, while reducing home price appreciation that provides loss protection. The correspondent production segment is highly cyclical, with origination volumes tied to home purchase activity and refinancing waves. However, distressed asset acquisitions can increase during recessions as GSE buyout volumes rise.

Interest Rates

Extreme sensitivity to interest rate movements through multiple channels: (1) Rising rates compress net interest margins as short-term repo financing costs increase faster than fixed-rate asset yields, (2) Duration mismatch creates mark-to-market losses on longer-duration MBS holdings, (3) Higher mortgage rates slow prepayment speeds, which can be positive or negative depending on asset purchase price relative to par, (4) Inverted yield curves are particularly damaging as they eliminate the positive carry that drives mREIT profitability. The 10x leverage amplifies all rate impacts on book value.

Key Risks

GSE reform or changes to credit risk transfer programs could eliminate key investment opportunities and disrupt the distressed loan acquisition pipeline

Regulatory changes to REIT taxation or mortgage servicing rules could impact business model economics and dividend requirements

Secular shift toward non-QM and portfolio lending by banks could reduce GSE market share and available investment inventory

Investor Profile

value/dividend - The 0.6x price-to-book ratio attracts deep value investors betting on book value recovery, while the REIT structure requires dividend distributions that appeal to income-focused investors. However, recent negative total returns (-9.5% 1-year) and declining earnings suggest dividend sustainability concerns. Not suitable for growth investors given the mature mortgage market and limited expansion opportunities. Attracts contrarian investors willing to accept high volatility for potential mean reversion in mortgage spreads.

Watch on Earnings
30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) - primary driver of refinancing activity and asset prepayment speeds10-year Treasury yield and 2-year yield spread (yield curve steepness) - determines net interest margin potentialCase-Shiller Home Price Index - affects loan-to-value ratios and credit loss severity on distressed portfoliosMortgage delinquency rates (MBA or Freddie Mac data) - leading indicator of credit losses on CRT and distressed assets
Health Radar
1 strong5 concern
23/100
Liquidity
0.03Concern
Leverage
10.12Concern
Coverage
1.1xConcern
ROE
6.8%Concern
ROIC
337.9%Strong
Cash
$272MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE26 analysts
BUY
+17.7%upside to target
L $13.50
Med $14.25consensus
H $18.00
Buy
1350%
Hold
1350%
13 Buy (50%)13 Hold (50%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 46 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.03 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 20, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 7.1%

-2.7% vs SMA 50 · +4.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI46.3
Neutral territory
MACD-0.08
Below zero — bearish pulse · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$13.81+14.0%
EMA 50
$12.32+1.7%
Current
$12.11
EMA 200
$11.18-7.7%
52W Low
$11.15-7.9%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$11.1536th %ile$13.81
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:7
Dist days:7
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)768K
Recent Vol (5D)
1.1M+42%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 6 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$543.8M
$520.9M$561.7M
$1.67
±5%
Low2
FY2024
$323.7M
$314.4M$333.1M
-40.5%$1.27-24.1%
±2%
High5
FY2025
$345.3M
$341.9M$348.6M
+6.7%$0.90-29.4%
±16%
High6
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryPMT
Last 8Q
-20.8%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
+18%
Q2'24
-51%
Q3'24
Q4'24
+11%
Q1'25
-103%
Q2'25
-111%
Q3'25
+53%
Q4'25
+17%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Keefe, Bruyette & W…Outperform
Dec 18
UPGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
5 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
Lynch Catherine A.Dir
$9K
Jan 23
BUY
Lynch Catherine A.Dir
$10K
Jan 23
BUY
Spector DavidDir
$124K
Nov 17
BUY
Lynch Catherine A.Dir
$9K
Oct 24
BUY
Lynch Catherine A.Dir
$10K
Oct 24
BUY
Financials
Dividends13.21% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield13.21%
Semi-Annual Div.$0.4000
Est. Annual / Share$0.80
FrequencySemi-Annual
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q4'24
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q4'25
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
524K
2
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
423K
3
GraniteShares Advisors LLC
193K
4
SG Americas Securities, LLC
139K
5
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
133K
6
WEDBUSH SECURITIES INC
91K
7
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
58K
8
Spinnaker Investment Group, LLC
48K
News & Activity

PMT News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

pennymac mortgage investment trust, a specialty finance company, invests primarily in mortgage-related assets in the united states. the company operates through credit sensitive strategies, interest rate sensitive strategies, and correspondent production segments. its credit sensitive strategies segment invests in credit risk transfer (crt) agreements, including firm commitment to purchase crt securities, distressed loans, real estate, and non-agency subordinated bonds. the company's interest rate sensitive strategies segment engages in investing in mortgage servicing rights, excess servicing spreads, and agency and senior non-agency mbs; and related interest rate hedging activities. its correspondent production segment engages in purchasing, pooling, and reselling newly originated prime credit residential loans directly or in the form of mortgage-backed securities (mbs). pnmac capital management, llc acts as the manager of pennymac mortgage investment trust. the company qualifies as a

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
Douglas Edward JonesPresident, Chief Mortgage Banking Officer & Director
Kevin ChamberlainExecutive Vice President of Investor Relations
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
PMT
$12.11-1.78%$1.1B8.2+24581.2%732.8%1500
$307.65-1.54%$829.7B14.6+330.7%2039.3%1502
$326.85-0.36%$626.5B28.1+1134.0%5014.5%1498
$504.74+1.87%$446.8B28.9+1641.6%4564.7%1488
$52.19-1.97%$374.6B11.9-45.1%1592.6%1501
$188.03-1.13%$298.6B16.2+1147.7%1466.4%1516
$903.27-2.21%$268.0B15.2-138.4%1373.0%1515
Sector avg-1.02%17.6+4093.1%2397.6%1503