PR
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move-0.49%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.7× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 70Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
22.52
Open
22.37
Day Range22.18 – 22.68
22.18
22.68
52W Range11.64 – 22.68
11.64
22.68
98% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
14.0M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
17.5x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.23
Market-like
Performance
1D
-0.49%
5D
+5.36%
1M
+6.06%
3M
+36.40%
6M
+84.75%
YTD
+59.73%
1Y
+88.64%
Best: 1Y (+88.64%)Worst: 1D (-0.49%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +1% · 37% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 18x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.8 (low) · FCF $0.75/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$16.04B
Revenue TTM$5.07B
Net Income TTM$935.17M
Free Cash Flow$557.39M
Gross Margin37.1%
Net Margin18.5%
Operating Margin28.9%
Return on Equity9.6%
Return on Assets5.1%
Debt / Equity0.36
Current Ratio0.78
EPS TTM$1.26
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

WTI crude oil spot price and forward curve structure (contango vs backwardation affects hedging economics and investor sentiment)

Quarterly production volumes and ability to meet guidance (200,000+ BOE/d run-rate with 5-10% annual organic growth expectations)

Well productivity metrics: initial production rates (IP30 rates of 1,500-2,000 BOE/d for Wolfcamp wells), drilling and completion costs per lateral foot, and EUR revisions

Free cash flow generation and capital allocation decisions (dividend policy, share buybacks vs debt reduction vs M&A)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Oil prices exhibit strong correlation to global GDP growth and industrial activity, as transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks drive 75%+ of crude demand. Permian production economics remain viable through cycles (breakevens in $35-45 range), but equity valuations compress sharply during recessions as investors price in lower long-term oil price assumptions. Chinese economic growth, OECD manufacturing PMIs, and global refinery utilization rates are leading indicators. PR's leverage to cycle is amplified by 65-70% oil weighting (vs gas-heavy peers) and lack of downstream integration to buffer commodity volatility.

Interest Rates

Rising rates create moderate headwinds through three channels: (1) higher borrowing costs on the $2.3B net debt position (though 90%+ is fixed-rate bonds maturing 2027-2032), (2) increased discount rates compressing PV-10 reserve valuations and acquisition multiples, and (3) competition for capital as energy equities compete with higher risk-free rates. However, E&P stocks historically correlate more strongly with oil prices than rates. PR's modest 0.37x debt/equity ratio and investment-grade credit profile (BB+ equivalent) limit refinancing risk. The company's focus on free cash flow generation over growth provides some insulation from rate-driven valuation compression.

Key Risks

Energy transition and peak oil demand risk: Accelerating EV adoption, renewable energy deployment, and policy-driven decarbonization could structurally reduce long-term oil demand growth, compressing terminal valuations for fossil fuel producers. PR's 15+ year drilling inventory assumes sustained $60+ oil prices.

Permian Basin maturation: As the most actively drilled US basin, Permian core acreage is depleting. PR must maintain well productivity and find costs as development shifts to tier-2 locations. Parent-child well interference and increased well spacing could reduce EURs by 10-20% over time.

Regulatory and ESG pressures: Federal/state restrictions on flaring, methane emissions regulations, and potential federal leasing limitations on New Mexico acreage (25-30% of PR's footprint) could increase compliance costs and constrain growth. Institutional investor divestment from fossil fuels limits capital access.

Investor Profile

value - PR attracts value-oriented investors seeking commodity exposure with downside protection. The stock trades at 4.5x EV/EBITDA (20-30% discount to large-cap Permian peers) due to smaller scale and higher perceived execution risk. Investors are drawn to: (1) low-cost asset base providing margin of safety in down cycles, (2) 50%+ free cash flow conversion enabling 3-5% dividend yield plus buybacks, (3) potential M&A target for larger operators seeking Permian consolidation. The company appeals to energy specialists and tactical allocators rather than growth-at-any-price investors. ESG-focused funds largely avoid the name despite improving emissions intensity metrics.

Watch on Earnings
WTI Cushing spot price and 12-month forward strip (primary revenue driver)Permian Basin rig count (Baker Hughes weekly data) as leading indicator of supply growth and service cost inflationUS crude oil inventory levels (EIA weekly) and days of supply relative to 5-year averagePermian Basin production volumes (EIA monthly) to assess regional supply growth and takeaway capacity utilization
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
37/100
Liquidity
0.78Concern
Leverage
0.36Strong
Coverage
5.1xStrong
ROE
9.6%Watch
ROIC
7.0%Concern
Cash
$154MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE19 analysts
BUY
-6.3%downside to target
L $18.00
Med $21.00consensus
H $27.00
Strong Buy
15%
Buy
1579%
Hold
316%
16 Buy (84%)3 Hold (16%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 70 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.78 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 6, 2026
In 92 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 29.1%

+12.7% vs SMA 50 · +45.5% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI69.6
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.67
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$22.68+1.2%
Current
$22.41
EMA 50
$19.86-11.4%
EMA 200
$16.29-27.3%
52W Low
$11.64-48.1%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$11.6498th %ile$22.68
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:5
Dist days:3
Edge:+2 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)11.0M
Recent Vol (5D)
9.8M-11%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 12 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$5.2B
$5.1B$5.3B
$1.17
±2%
High12
FY2026(current)
$6.2B
$5.3B$6.7B
+18.1%$1.84+57.7%
±18%
High12
FY2027
$6.4B
$6.1B$6.8B
+4.1%$2.04+10.4%
±20%
High12
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryPR
Last 8Q
+20.8%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates falling
+13%
Q2'24
-5%
Q3'24
+81%
Q4'24
Q1'25
-1%
Q2'25
Q3'25
+20%
Q4'25
+59%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
CitigroupBuy → Reduce
Mar 5
DOWNGRADE
BMO CapitalOutperform
Jul 3
UPGRADE
Mizuho SecuritiesBuy
Aug 16
UPGRADE
Cowen & Co.Outperform
Mar 1
UPGRADE
RBC CapitalOutperform
Jul 6
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Marquez AronDir
$103K
Mar 17
SELL
Marquez AronDir
$152K
Mar 18
SELL
Quinn William JDir
$10.0M
Mar 18
SELL
Tepper JeffreyDir
$969K
Mar 12
SELL
Quinn William JDir
$15.3M
Mar 11
SELL
Oliphint Guy MCFO
$120K
Mar 3
SELL
Financials
Dividends2.72% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield2.72%
Quarterly Div.$0.1600
Est. Annual / Share$0.64
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
16.1M
2
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
15.2M
3
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
4.7M
4
UBS Group AG
4.1M
5
Perpetual Ltd
4.1M
6
River Road Asset Management, LLC
3.6M
7
VAUGHAN NELSON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P.
3.0M
8
Leeward Investments, LLC - MA
1.9M
News & Activity

PR News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

centennial resource development (nasdaq:cdev) is an independent oil producer with assets in the core of the southern delaware basin, a sub-basin of the permian basin in west texas. with over 40,000 net acres and 1,350+ drilling locations primarily in reeves county, we are pursuing a growth strategy grounded in technical leadership, strong well results, attractive investment returns and a conservative balance sheet. centennial is headquartered in denver, colorado. interested in learning more about centennial? please visit our website at www.cdevinc.com. interested in a career at centennial? please submit your resume to centennialcareers@cdevinc.com

CEO
Sean Smith
James H. WalterCo-CEO & Director
William HickeyCo-CEO & Director
Clayton SmithSenior Vice President Of Development Operations
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
PR
$22.41-0.49%$16.0B17.9+128.9%1846.3%1500
$394.41-1.79%$2.0T30.2+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$132.26-0.76%$307.0B23.5+586.3%1305.9%1500
$87.40-3.03%$300.4B13.3+318.8%1510.7%1500
$181.24-1.21%$281.0B26.8+862.9%1745.9%1500
$145.50+0.61%$277.6B20.6+597.3%2564.4%1500
$89.71+0.50%$254.0B14.5-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg-0.88%21.0+742.9%2021.6%1500