Class 8 truck order rates and backlog trends - ACT Research monthly data drives near-term sentiment as orders lead sales by 6-9 months
Commercial freight tonnage and trucking company profitability - ATA Truck Tonnage Index and spot rate trends (DAT freight rates) signal fleet expansion/contraction decisions
OEM production schedules and inventory levels - Peterbilt and International build rates determine new unit availability and delivery timelines
Same-store parts and service revenue growth - indicates aftermarket strength and customer retention independent of new truck cycles
high - Commercial truck demand exhibits 2-3x GDP sensitivity as freight volumes amplify economic activity changes. Class 8 truck sales historically decline 40-60% peak-to-trough during recessions as fleets defer replacements and reduce capacity. Industrial production and manufacturing activity drive freight demand, with 70% of US freight moving by truck. However, aftermarket service provides partial offset as aging fleet requires more maintenance during downturns when replacement cycles extend from 5-7 years to 8-10 years.
Rising rates create dual headwinds: (1) Fleet financing costs increase, with typical truck loans at 200-300bps over prime affecting customer purchase decisions on $150K-180K Class 8 tractors, and (2) Higher rates pressure trucking company cash flows and reduce fleet expansion appetite. Rush's own floor plan financing costs rise, though manufacturers often subsidize during promotional periods. Valuation multiple compression occurs as investors rotate from cyclical growth to defensive sectors. Estimated 100bps rate increase reduces new truck demand by 3-5% with 6-9 month lag.
Electric vehicle transition in commercial trucking - Tesla Semi, Nikola, and OEM electric models could disrupt traditional dealership service revenue as EVs require 40-50% less maintenance (no oil changes, transmission work, exhaust systems). However, transition timeline extends beyond 2030 for Class 8 due to range, charging infrastructure, and total cost of ownership challenges.
Autonomous trucking technology - Waymo Via, Aurora, and TuSimple development could reduce long-haul tractor demand by 20-30% over 10-15 years, though local/regional delivery and vocational trucks remain insulated. Service revenue less affected as autonomous trucks still require maintenance.
Freight market structural changes - intermodal rail competition, nearshoring reducing long-haul miles, and e-commerce distribution network optimization could alter truck demand patterns and utilization rates.
value/cyclical - Attracts investors seeking exposure to economic recovery and industrial cycle upturns at 0.7x P/S and 11.8x EV/EBITDA valuations. The 52% three-month return suggests momentum investors recently entered on freight market recovery signals. Aftermarket revenue stability appeals to investors seeking cyclical exposure with downside protection. Not a dividend story (likely modest yield given 3.5% net margin and growth capex needs). Recent -4.7% revenue decline and -13.3% earnings decline indicate mid-cycle positioning, attracting contrarian value investors anticipating next upcycle.
Trend
-0.5% vs SMA 50 · +13.9% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $7.8B $7.7B–$7.8B | — | $4.04 | — | ±1% | Low2 |
FY2024 | $7.7B $7.6B–$7.7B | ▼ -1.6% | $3.65 | ▼ -9.6% | ±0% | Low2 |
FY2025 | $7.4B $7.4B–$7.4B | ▼ -3.4% | $3.15 | ▼ -13.8% | ±6% | Moderate3 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
RUSHA News
About
rush enterprises, inc. is the premier solutions provider to the north american commercial vehicle industry. the company owns and operates the largest network of commercial vehicle dealerships in the country, representing truck and bus manufacturers including peterbilt, international, hino, isuzu, ford, mitsubishi, ic bus, blue bird and elkhart. the company's vehicle centers are strategically located in high traffic areas on or near major highways in 20 states throughout the united states. these one-stop service and sales centers offer an integrated approach to meeting customer needs -- from aftermarket parts, service and body shop operations to sales of new and used vehicles plus a wide array of financial services, including financing, insurance, leasing and rental. for more information, please visit www.rushenterprises.com.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $68.72 | -2.64% | $5.3B | 20.1 | -474.8% | 354.8% | 1500 | |
| $888.31 | +0.00% | $409.2B | — | — | — | 1526 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | — | — | — | 1488 | |
| $171.18 | +0.00% | $230.5B | — | — | — | 1486 | |
| $220.49 | +0.00% | $173.8B | — | — | — | 1502 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| $399.44 | +0.00% | $155.1B | — | — | — | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.80% | — | 21.2 | -183.8% | 1633.5% | 1502 |