SITE
Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move+0.44%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.3× avgLight volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 39Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
125.61
Open
127.06
Day Range124.60 – 127.06
124.60
127.06
52W Range112.23 – 168.56
112.23
168.56
25% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
718.2K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
37.3x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.48
Market-like
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +3% YoY
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 37x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 2.3 · FCF $5.52/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$5.59B
Revenue TTM$4.71B
Net Income TTM$152.50M
Free Cash Flow$246.10M
Gross Margin34.9%
Net Margin3.2%
Operating Margin5.1%
Return on Equity9.2%
Return on Assets4.4%
Debt / Equity0.70
Current Ratio2.33
EPS TTM$3.42
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Housing starts and single-family construction activity - new homes drive 40-50% of residential landscaping demand with 12-18 month lag from permit to landscape installation

Commercial construction spending - office parks, retail centers, multifamily complexes generate large-scale irrigation and hardscape projects

Weather patterns and seasonal timing - early spring accelerates demand while wet/cold weather delays projects and compresses selling season

M&A execution and integration - company targets 3-5% annual revenue growth from acquisitions of local/regional distributors at 5-7x EBITDA multiples

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Landscape distribution is highly cyclical with 70-75% correlation to residential and commercial construction activity. In recessions, new construction drops sharply and maintenance/repair spending (30-35% of revenue) declines as property owners defer discretionary projects. The business demonstrated this in 2020 when organic sales declined 8-10% before rebounding strongly in 2021-2022. Commercial projects have longer lead times (6-12 months) providing some visibility, but residential remodeling can shift quickly with consumer confidence.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates negatively impact SiteOne through multiple channels: (1) mortgage rates above 7% significantly reduce housing affordability and new home construction, which drives 40-50% of end demand with 12-18 month lag; (2) higher rates increase financing costs for commercial real estate developers, slowing office, retail, and multifamily projects; (3) the company's $400M+ revolving credit facility (estimated based on debt levels) reprices higher, increasing interest expense by $4-8M per 100bps rate increase; (4) valuation multiples compress as investors rotate from cyclical industrials to bonds. However, lower rates stimulate construction activity and improve project economics for landscapers.

Key Risks

Climate change and water scarcity driving shift from traditional turf grass to xeriscaping and drought-tolerant landscaping in Western states, potentially reducing irrigation and agronomic product demand by 15-20% in affected markets over 10+ years

Labor shortages in landscaping industry (aging workforce, immigration restrictions) reducing the pool of professional contractors and potentially shifting more work to DIY channels where SiteOne has limited presence

Consolidation among national landscaping service providers (BrightView, ValleyCrest) increasing buyer power and potentially pressuring distributor margins through volume-based pricing demands

Investor Profile

growth - The stock attracts growth investors focused on the long-term consolidation opportunity in a $20B+ fragmented market where SiteOne holds only 10% share and can sustain 8-12% annual revenue growth through M&A plus organic gains. The company's ability to generate 15-20% ROIC on acquisitions and expand operating margins 200-300bps over cycle appeals to investors seeking compounding through market share gains rather than dividend yield (currently minimal/zero payout). However, cyclical exposure means growth investors must time entry points around construction cycles.

Watch on Earnings
Monthly housing starts (HOUST) and building permits (PERMIT) - leading indicators of residential landscaping demand with 12-18 month lagArchitectural Billings Index (ABI) - leading indicator of commercial construction activity 9-12 months forward30-year mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) - directly impacts housing affordability and new home sales velocityDodge Momentum Index - measures commercial and institutional building planning, signals future project flow
Health Radar
3 strong1 watch2 concern
50/100
Liquidity
2.33Strong
Leverage
0.70Strong
Coverage
6.8xStrong
ROE
9.2%Watch
ROIC
6.8%Concern
Cash
$191MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE15 analysts
HOLD
+26.8%upside to target
L $140.00
Med $160.00consensus
H $200.00
Buy
747%
Hold
747%
Sell
17%
7 Buy (47%)7 Hold (47%)1 Sell (6%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
6/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 39 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowLean Accumulation
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.33 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · After CloseMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 0.9%

-7.4% vs SMA 50 · -6.6% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI39.4
Momentum fading
MACD-1.57
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$168.6+33.6%
EMA 50
$136.7+8.4%
EMA 200
$133.3+5.6%
Current
$126.2
52W Low
$112.2-11.0%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$112.225th %ile$168.6
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:6
Dist days:4
Edge:+2 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)489K
Recent Vol (5D)
756K+55%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 7 analysts

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$4.4B
$4.4B$4.5B
$3.42
±2%
Moderate3
FY2024
$4.5B
$4.5B$4.5B
+2.2%$3.13-8.5%
±3%
High6
FY2025
$4.7B
$4.7B$4.8B
+4.1%$3.67+17.3%
±2%
High7
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistorySITE
Last 8Q
-20.5%avg beat
Beat 3 of 8 quartersMissed 5 Estimates rising
+4%
Q3'24
-16%
Q4'24
-85%
Q1'25
-22%
Q2'25
-1%
Q3'25
+7%
Q4'25
+31%
Q1'26
-82%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Mild positive momentum
30d10
90d10
Deutsche BankHold → Buy
Apr 30
UPGRADE
RBC CapitalSector Perform → Outperform
Jan 8
UPGRADE
William BlairMarket Perform
Oct 15
DOWNGRADE
Loop Capital MarketsHold → Buy
Sep 19
UPGRADE
Goldman SachsSell
Jun 5
DOWNGRADE
UBSNeutral → Buy
Sep 26
UPGRADE
Loop Capital MarketsBuy
Apr 10
UPGRADE
RBC CapitalSector Perform
Jun 22
UPGRADE
UBSNeutral
Mar 29
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/4 SellsNet Selling
Elema Eric JEVP, CFO and A…
$279K
Feb 13
SELL
Guthrie John TEVP, CFO and A…
$258K
Nov 26
SELL
Diaz Fred MDir
$125K
Aug 29
SELL
Black DougDir
$975K
Jul 25
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
WASATCH ADVISORS LP
2.1M
2
Conestoga Capital Advisors, LLC
1.1M
3
Stephens Investment Management Group LLC
436K
4
Handelsbanken Fonder AB
253K
5
Nuveen, LLC
178K
6
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
144K
7
McCollum Christoferson Group LLC
82K
8
SG Americas Securities, LLC
58K
News & Activity

SITE News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

formerly known as john deere landscapes, siteone landscape supply is the largest and only national wholesale distributor of landscaping products in the united states and canada. we have a long history of serving residential and commercial landscape professionals who specialize in the design, installation and maintenance of lawns, gardens, golf courses and other outdoor spaces. through our network of over 460 branches across 44 states and five provinces, we offer a comprehensive selection of more than 90,000 products including irrigation supplies, fertilizer and control products, nursery goods, hardscapes, landscape lighting, drainage and erosion control products, tools, and other landscaping accessories and supplies. with a world-class team of over 2,700 industry experts, we also provide industry- leading complementary services and business assistance to support our product offering and to help our customers operate and grow their businesses; all tailored to meet each customer’s specif

CEO
Doug Black
Doug BlackPresident, Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Eric ElemaExecutive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Assistant Secretary
Jerry JusticeDivision President
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
SITE
$126.16+0.00%$5.6B+361.6%322.6%1500
$402.66+0.00%$2.1T1500
$91.30+0.00%$316.0B14.11510.7%1500
$135.87+0.00%$305.1B23.71305.9%1500
$184.38+0.00%$286.4B27.2+862.9%1745.9%1500
$145.54+0.00%$279.7B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$89.46+0.00%$251.9B14.4668.4%1500
Sector avg+0.00%20.1+607.3%1353.0%1500