SL Green Realty (SLG)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Manhattan office leasing velocity and net effective rents - any signs of demand stabilization or further deterioration
2. 02Occupancy trends and lease renewal rates, particularly for large tenants representing >5% of revenue
3. 03Asset sales and capital recycling activity - ability to monetize non-core assets and manage leverage
4. 04Federal Reserve policy shifts affecting cap rates and REIT valuation multiples
5. 05Return-to-office mandates from major employers and actual utilization data for Manhattan office buildings
6. 06Base rental income from office leases (estimated 75-80% of revenue) with typical 5-10 year lease terms
7. 07Tenant reimbursements for operating expenses, taxes, and utilities (estimated 15-20%)
8. 08Fee income from property management and leasing services for third-party assets (estimated 3-5%)

SLG Chart

My Notes

• value/contrarian - Current 0.7x price-to-book suggests deep value opportunity if office market stabilizes…
• Very high sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) REIT valuation multiples compress as 10-year Treasury yields rise…
• Watch on earnings: Manhattan office availability rate (currently 18-20% range including direct and sublease space), 10-Year Treasury yield (GS10) as primary driver of REIT valuation multiples and cap rate expansion, New York City employment in financial activities and professional/business services sectors.