SPH
Earnings in 3 days · May 7, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+0.91%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume2.1× avgHeavy volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 59Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
19.89
Open
19.93
Day Range19.81 – 20.37
19.81
20.37
52W Range17.30 – 20.80
17.30
20.80
79% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
119.8K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
10.0x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.08%
Beta
0.43
Low vol
Performance
1D
-1.04%
5D
+1.58%
1M
+0.56%
3M
-0.60%
6M
+10.56%
YTD
+7.28%
1Y
-2.12%
Best: 6M (+10.56%)Worst: 1Y (-2.12%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +7% YoY · 42% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 10x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.9 (low) · FCF $0.93/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.33B
Revenue TTM$1.43B
Net Income TTM$132.93M
Free Cash Flow$61.89M
Gross Margin42.3%
Net Margin9.3%
Operating Margin15.0%
Return on Equity20.9%
Return on Assets5.5%
Debt / Equity2.42
Current Ratio0.87
EPS TTM$2.01
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Heating degree days (HDD) in Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions - each 10% variance from normal impacts volumes by 8-12%

Propane wholesale cost spreads (Mont Belvieu pricing) and ability to pass through costs with 30-90 day lag

Distribution coverage ratio and sustainability of $0.60 annual distribution ($0.15 quarterly)

Customer attrition rates in core residential heating segment versus natural gas pipeline expansion

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low-to-moderate - Residential heating demand (60%+ of volumes) is non-discretionary and weather-driven rather than economically sensitive. Commercial/industrial segments (25-30% of volumes) exhibit moderate cyclicality tied to manufacturing activity and agricultural operations. Agricultural propane demand for crop drying correlates with harvest volumes and commodity prices. Recession impact is muted by essential-service nature, though commercial customer bankruptcies and residential payment delinquencies increase during downturns.

Interest Rates

Rising rates create moderate headwinds through multiple channels: (1) Higher financing costs on $800M+ debt load, with estimated $8-10M annual interest expense increase per 100bps rate rise; (2) MLP distribution yields become less attractive versus risk-free rates, compressing valuation multiples; (3) Refinancing risk on debt maturities, though current debt structure is largely termed out through 2028-2030. Conversely, falling rates support valuation multiples and reduce financing costs. The 2.42x debt/equity ratio amplifies interest rate sensitivity.

Key Risks

Natural gas pipeline expansion into rural markets threatens 1-3% annual customer attrition in core territories, with permanent volume loss as customers convert to lower-cost natural gas

Energy transition and building electrification policies (heat pumps, electric appliances) create long-term demand headwinds, particularly in residential new construction where propane penetration has declined from 6% (2010) to 4% (2025)

Regulatory restrictions on propane usage in certain applications and potential carbon pricing mechanisms that disadvantage fossil fuels versus renewable alternatives

Investor Profile

dividend/income - MLP structure with 8-9% distribution yield attracts income-focused investors seeking tax-advantaged cash flows. Value investors are drawn to 0.9x price/sales and 10.1x EV/EBITDA multiples trading below historical averages. The partnership structure appeals to investors comfortable with K-1 tax reporting and seeking energy infrastructure exposure without commodity price volatility. Limited growth prospects (mature markets, structural headwinds) deter growth investors.

Watch on Earnings
Mont Belvieu propane spot prices and wholesale-retail spread realization (target 40-50 cents/gallon)Heating degree days (HDD) versus 30-year normal in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest regionsQuarterly retail propane gallons sold and year-over-year volume trendsDistributable cash flow (DCF) and distribution coverage ratio (target >1.2x for sustainability)
Health Radar
1 strong2 watch3 concern
30/100
Liquidity
0.87Concern
Leverage
2.42Concern
Coverage
2.8xWatch
ROE
20.9%Strong
ROIC
9.8%Watch
Cash
$4MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE16 analysts
HOLD
+4.6%upside to target
L $17.00
Med $21.00consensus
H $25.00
Buy
425%
Hold
744%
Sell
531%
4 Buy (25%)7 Hold (44%)5 Sell (31%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 59 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.87 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 4.5%

+0.4% vs SMA 50 · +4.9% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI59.0
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD-0.08
Below zero — bearish pulse · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$20.80+3.6%
Current
$20.07
EMA 50
$19.71-1.8%
EMA 200
$19.25-4.1%
52W Low
$17.30-13.8%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$17.3079th %ile$20.80
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:0
Dist days:2
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)150K
Recent Vol (5D)
80K-46%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 2 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$1.3B
$1.3B$1.4B
$1.63
Low2
FY2025
$1.4B
$1.4B$1.4B
+9.0%$1.75+7.1%
Low1
FY2026(current)
$1.4B
$1.4B$1.4B
-1.1%$1.85+6.0%
Low1
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistorySPH
Last 8Q
-13.8%avg beat
Beat 2 of 8 quartersMissed 6 Estimates falling
-9%
Q2'24
-59%
Q3'24
-47%
Q4'24
-56%
Q1'25
-4%
Q2'25
+55%
Q3'25
-22%
Q4'25
+30%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Wells FargoEqual-Weight → Underweight
Aug 30
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/3 SellsNet Selling
Chanin Matthew JDir
$193K
Dec 2
SELL
Logan Harold R JrDir
$140K
Aug 13
SELL
Logan Harold R JrDir
$132K
May 21
SELL
Financials
Dividends6.48% yield
+0.9% avg annual growth
Annual Yield6.48%
Quarterly Div.$0.3300
Est. Annual / Share$1.32
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Fractal Investments LLC
215K
2
COMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, LLC
195K
3
Private Advisor Group, LLC
78K
4
Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc.
76K
5
SageGuard Financial Group, LLC
58K
6
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC
54K
7
Wealthstar Advisors, LLC
33K
8
GREENUP STREET WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
22K
News & Activity

SPH News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

suburban is a nationwide marketer and distributor of a diverse array of products to meet the energy needs of our customers, specializing in propane, fuel oil and refined fuels, as well as the marketing of natural gas and electricity in deregulated markets. in the residential and commercial markets, propane is used primarily for space heating, water heating, clothes drying and cooking. industrial customers use propane generally as a motor fuel to power over-the-road vehicles, forklifts and stationary engines, to fire furnaces, as a cutting gas and in other process applications. in the agricultural market, propane is primarily used for tobacco curing, crop drying, poultry brooding and weed control. propane is clean burning and, when consumed, produces only negligible amounts of pollutants, that's why propane is the safe, “go anywhere, do anything” green energy source for all seasons. suburban propane partners also sells, installs, and services various whole-house heating products, air cl

Sector
Industry
Natural Gas Distribution
CEO
Michael Stivala
Douglas T. BrinkworthSenior Vice President of Product Supply, Purchasing & Logistics
Michael A. StivalaPresident, Chief Executive Officer & Supervisor
A. Davin D'AmbrosioVice President & Treasurer
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
SPH
$20.07-1.04%$1.3B9.9+793.8%743.9%1500
$400.93+0.00%$2.1T1500
$90.33+0.00%$316.0B14.11510.7%1500
$133.86+0.00%$305.1B23.71305.9%1500
$183.44+0.00%$286.4B27.2+862.9%1745.9%1500
$144.67+0.00%$279.7B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$89.04+0.00%$251.9B14.4668.4%1500
Sector avg-0.15%18.4+751.3%1423.2%1500