New contract wins and annual contract value (ACV) bookings, particularly multi-million dollar government contracts with DoD, NOAA, or international space agencies
Customer retention rates and net revenue retention (NRR) metrics indicating expansion within existing accounts
Satellite constellation health and launch cadence - successful deployments expanding coverage or replacing aging satellites
Quarterly revenue growth acceleration or deceleration relative to the 13% YoY baseline, signaling market traction
moderate - Maritime and aviation data demand correlates with global trade volumes and air traffic, which contract during recessions as shipping activity and flight operations decline. However, government weather and defense contracts (estimated 30-40% of revenue) provide countercyclical stability as these budgets are less economically sensitive. The subscription model creates revenue stickiness, but new customer acquisition slows when corporate IT budgets tighten. Industrial production and trade volumes are leading indicators for maritime data demand.
High interest rates negatively impact Spire through multiple channels: (1) Higher discount rates compress valuation multiples for unprofitable growth companies, particularly acute given negative FCF; (2) Increased cost of capital for satellite manufacturing and launch financing, though current debt/equity of 0.06 suggests minimal debt burden; (3) Customer budget constraints as enterprises face higher financing costs, potentially delaying data analytics investments. The company's path to profitability becomes more critical in high-rate environments as equity capital becomes scarcer for cash-burning businesses.
Commoditization of space-based data as launch costs decline and new constellations proliferate, compressing pricing power and margins across maritime AIS and aviation ADS-B segments where data is becoming increasingly abundant
Government weather satellite modernization programs (NOAA, EUMETSAT) potentially displacing commercial weather data providers with free or subsidized alternatives, particularly for radio occultation data
Regulatory changes in spectrum allocation or data privacy (particularly maritime/aviation tracking) that could restrict data collection or commercialization rights
growth - Attracts speculative growth investors betting on the commercialization of space data and the company's ability to scale revenue faster than operating expenses to reach profitability. The negative earnings, small market cap, and emerging industry position appeal to venture-style public market investors willing to accept high risk for potential multi-bagger returns if the company captures meaningful share of the $10B+ Earth observation and space data market. Not suitable for value or income investors given negative cash flows and no dividend. Recent 16.5% three-month return suggests momentum traders are also active.
Trend
+27.2% vs SMA 50 · +75.9% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $107.2M $102.8M–$113.1M | — | -$3.49 | — | ±6% | Low1 |
FY2024 | $109.1M $107.2M–$111.4M | ▲ +1.8% | -$2.35 | — | ±3% | Low2 |
FY2025 | $71.2M $71.1M–$71.3M | ▼ -34.8% | -$1.97 | — | ±3% | Moderate4 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
SPIR News
About
spire is a data and analytics company that collects data from space to solve problems on earth. spire can identify, track, and predict the movement of the world's resources and weather systems so that businesses and governments can make smarter decisions about what to do next - a vital capability given how quickly our world is changing. to learn more, visit: www.spire.com spire is looking for exceptional people to join its fast-growing team. challenge yourself, apply today! http://spire.com/careers/
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPIR◀ | $20.01 | +9.82% | $671M | — | -3521.7% | 7170.2% | 1500 |
| $888.31 | +0.00% | $409.2B | — | — | — | 1526 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | — | — | — | 1488 | |
| $171.18 | +0.00% | $230.5B | — | — | — | 1486 | |
| $220.49 | +0.00% | $173.8B | — | — | — | 1502 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| $399.44 | +0.00% | $155.1B | — | — | — | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | +0.98% | — | 22.2 | -1707.3% | 5041.2% | 1502 |