FBI NICS background check volumes - proxy for retail firearm demand and leading indicator of shipment trends
Political and regulatory environment - presidential election cycles, state-level legislation (California, New York restrictions), and federal assault weapon ban discussions drive preemptive buying
Distributor inventory levels - channel destocking (currently occurring) versus restocking cycles significantly impact quarterly shipments
New product launches - M&P pistol variants, Shield Plus subcompact success drives market share gains
moderate - Firearms demand shows counter-cyclical characteristics during periods of social uncertainty but pro-cyclical elements tied to discretionary spending. The 2020-2021 surge occurred during economic stress but high stimulus. Current -11.4% revenue decline reflects normalization from elevated 2020-2022 levels rather than recessionary pressure. Consumer spending capacity affects premium product mix, but core self-defense demand remains relatively stable. Unemployment spikes can reduce discretionary purchases but may increase security concerns.
Low direct sensitivity - Smith & Wesson maintains minimal debt (0.34 D/E ratio) and $-0.0B net cash position, so financing costs are negligible. However, rising rates indirectly impact consumer financing availability at point-of-sale and reduce discretionary spending capacity for higher-priced firearms ($500-$1,200 range). Valuation multiples compress with rising rates given negative free cash flow currently, though strong balance sheet provides cushion.
Regulatory and legislative risk - Federal assault weapon ban proposals, state-level magazine capacity restrictions (California 10-round limit), universal background check expansion, and potential excise tax increases could materially constrain addressable market and increase compliance costs
Litigation exposure - Product liability lawsuits and municipal lawsuits against firearms manufacturers create ongoing legal costs and potential settlement liabilities, though PLCAA (Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act) provides some protection
Demographic shifts - Younger generation gun ownership rates and cultural attitudes toward firearms may reduce long-term market size, though recent data shows increased first-time buyers including women and minorities
value - Current 1.1x P/S and 1.4x P/B ratios reflect deep cyclical trough valuation. Recent 41.9% three-month return suggests momentum traders entering on technical breakout and potential political catalyst (2026 midterm elections). Dividend investors attracted by strong balance sheet and historical capital return, though current negative FCF limits immediate payout capacity. Contrarian investors view current depressed fundamentals as cyclical bottom with 2027-2028 political cycle upside.
Trend
+6.1% vs SMA 50 · +40.6% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $509.9M $498.4M–$521.5M | — | $0.75 | — | ±3% | Low1 |
FY2025 | $486.3M $485.1M–$488.3M | ▼ -4.6% | $0.33 | ▼ -56.2% | ±3% | Moderate3 |
FY2026(current) | $500.7M $500.5M–$501.0M | ▲ +3.0% | $0.28 | ▼ -16.7% | ±3% | Low2 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
SWBI News
About
founded in 1852, smith & wesson is one of the most legendary brands in the world, and is a u.s. based leader in firearm manufacturing and design, delivering a broad portfolio of quality firearms and related products to the global military, law enforcement, and consumer markets. much of the company’s history, as well as the brand are known for revolvers. in recent years, smith & wesson has shifted its focus to the production of polymer pistols and we are known for the m&p shield, arguably the most popular full-size polymer pistol in the market today. the family of brands includes smith & wesson®, m&p®, and thompson/center arms™. headquartered in springfield, ma, the quality of life, excellent schools, and diversity of residential options in or around springfield provide a historic, picturesque, and well-located place to call home. springfield is the home of the springfield amory, the naismith memorial basketball hall of fame, and a host of other historic attractions. smith & wesson al
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWBI◀ | $15.34 | +1.25% | $683M | 56.8 | -1141.6% | 282.8% | 1500 |
| $264.14 | -1.15% | $2.8T | 31.3 | +1237.8% | 1083.4% | 1521 | |
| $422.24 | -4.75% | $1.6T | 352.3 | -293.1% | 400.1% | 1507 | |
| $297.51 | -2.25% | $296.3B | 20.9 | +324.0% | 859.6% | 1477 | |
| $276.39 | +0.52% | $196.4B | 22.6 | +372.3% | 3185.0% | 1478 | |
| $147.43 | +0.05% | $163.2B | 30.2 | +711.9% | 910.0% | 1494 | |
| $218.42 | -2.32% | $122.3B | 18.3 | +312.2% | 771.2% | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.24% | — | 76.1 | +217.6% | 1070.3% | 1495 |