TAL
Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move+0.49%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.5× avgLight volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 48Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
11.12
Open
11.15
Day Range10.92 – 11.20
10.92
11.20
52W Range8.77 – 13.37
8.77
13.37
52% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.7M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
12.1x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.27
Market-like
Performance
1D
+0.49%
5D
+1.82%
1M
-0.27%
3M
-7.84%
6M
-8.89%
YTD
+2.38%
1Y
+25.22%
Best: 1Y (+25.22%)Worst: 6M (-8.89%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +34% YoY · 55% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 12x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 2.2 · FCF $2.39/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$6.80B
Revenue TTM$3.02B
Net Income TTM$533.04M
Free Cash Flow$441.40M
Gross Margin55.3%
Net Margin17.7%
Operating Margin9.1%
Return on Equity14.9%
Return on Assets9.0%
Debt / Equity0.10
Current Ratio2.17
EPS TTM$2.89
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Chinese regulatory announcements regarding private education sector - any easing or tightening of 'Double Reduction' policy enforcement

Student enrollment trends in quality education courses and conversion rates from academic to non-academic offerings

Learning device sales volumes and average selling prices, particularly smart hardware adoption rates

Operating margin trajectory and path to sustained profitability in the restructured business model

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Education spending in China is highly discretionary and correlates strongly with household income growth and consumer confidence. During economic slowdowns, parents reduce non-essential enrichment spending while prioritizing core academic needs. China's GDP growth, urban disposable income trends, and youth unemployment rates directly impact enrollment demand. The company's revenue growth of 51% reflects recovery from 2021-2023 regulatory trough rather than underlying market expansion.

Interest Rates

US interest rates affect TAL's ADR valuation through multiple channels: higher US rates compress growth stock multiples (currently trading at 2.4x P/S, well below historical 8-12x pre-2021), strengthen USD relative to RMB reducing translated revenues, and increase discount rates applied to long-duration cash flows. Chinese domestic interest rates have minimal direct impact as the business is not capital-intensive, though PBOC policy affects consumer credit availability for education spending.

Key Risks

Ongoing regulatory uncertainty in China's private education sector - government could extend restrictions to quality education or impose new pricing/profit caps

Demographic headwinds from China's declining birth rate (10.5 million births in 2023 vs 17.9 million in 2016) reducing long-term addressable market

Technological disruption from AI-powered tutoring platforms and free educational content reducing willingness to pay for premium services

Investor Profile

value - The stock trades at 0.6x P/B and 2.4x P/S, attracting deep value investors betting on regulatory risk premium compression and business model stabilization. Speculative investors position for potential policy easing or M&A activity. Growth investors largely exited post-2021 given structural market constraints. The 51% revenue growth and 2,468% net income growth reflect recovery from depressed 2022-2023 base rather than sustainable expansion, appealing to turnaround specialists rather than momentum investors.

Watch on Earnings
Chinese Ministry of Education policy announcements and enforcement actions on private education sectorChina urban disposable income growth rate and household education expenditure as % of incomeUSD/CNY exchange rate (DEXCHUS) affecting ADR valuation and translated financial resultsChina youth unemployment rate (16-24 age cohort) as proxy for education investment urgency
Health Radar
3 strong1 watch2 concern
56/100
Liquidity
2.17Strong
Leverage
0.10Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
14.9%Watch
ROIC
5.0%Concern
Cash
$1.8BStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE27 analysts
HOLD
+61.1%upside to target
Buy
1244%
Hold
1556%
12 Buy (44%)15 Hold (56%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 48 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.17 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 4, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 31, 2026
In 89 days
PDividend PaymentAug 17, 2026
In 106 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 2.6%

-1.1% vs SMA 50 · +1.5% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI48.0
Neutral territory
MACD-0.09
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$13.37+19.7%
EMA 50
$11.32+1.3%
Current
$11.17
EMA 200
$9.85-11.8%
52W Low
$8.77-21.5%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$8.7752th %ile$13.37
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:0
Dist days:5
Edge:+5 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)6.2M
Recent Vol (5D)
6.6M+6%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 13 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$2.3B
$2.3B$2.3B
$0.22
±17%
High11
FY2026(current)
$3.0B
$3.0B$3.0B
+31.9%$0.63+188.3%
±5%
High13
FY2027
$3.7B
$3.7B$3.8B
+24.4%$0.82+30.1%
±31%
High11
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTAL
Last 8Q
+138.0%avg beat
Beat 6 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates rising
-100%
Q1'24
+609%
Q3'24
+64%
Q4'24
+50%
Q1'25
-5%
Q3'25
+49%
Q4'25
+225%
Q1'26
+211%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
MacquarieNeutral → Outperform
Jan 30
UPGRADE
MacquarieOutperform → Neutral
Apr 24
DOWNGRADE
CLSABuy
Jan 26
UPGRADE
CFRAHold
Oct 30
UPGRADE
DaiwaBuy
Apr 13
UPGRADE
Piper SandlerOverweight
Nov 3
UPGRADE
CitigroupNeutral
Nov 3
UPGRADE
UBSBuy
Nov 3
UPGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Neutral
Oct 31
UPGRADE
Morgan StanleyUnderweight → Overweight
Mar 8
UPGRADE
Morgan StanleyUnderweight
Jun 16
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
1 Buy/5 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $868K sold · 30d window
Peng Alex Zhuangzhu…See Remarks
$868K
Apr 27
SELL
Germain ClaudeDir
$27K
Mar 8
BUY
Valentine KevinSenior Vice Pr…
$60K
Jan 17
SELL
Burns JohnSenior Vice Pr…
$196K
Jan 10
SELL
Valentine KevinSenior Vice Pr…
$56K
Jan 10
SELL
Valentine KevinSenior Vice Pr…
$55K
Jan 4
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.
10.8M
2
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
2.9M
3
E Fund Management Co., Ltd.
2.1M
4
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.
954K
5
Nuveen, LLC
726K
6
Pictet Asset Management Holding SA
468K
7
ROYAL LONDON ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD
415K
8
GF FUND MANAGEMENT CO. LTD.
402K
News & Activity

TAL News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

好未来是中国领先的k12课外辅导机构,在全国19个城市设立线下直营分校,285个教学中心,拥有6500名全职员工,其中全职教师3000人,从事互联网教育业务的员工600余人。2014学年线下培训参培训用户达90万人次,线上注册学员累计47余万人,在线教育社区的总注册用户达500万人。 2010年10月20日好未来登陆美国纽交所(nyse:xrs),是中国最早在美国上市的教育企业之一。 好未来旗下品牌:学而思培优,学而思网校,智康1对1,摩比思维馆,家长帮。

CEO
Bangxin Zhang
Country
China (Mainland)
Zhuangzhuang PengPresident & Chief Financial Officer
Mi TianSenior Vice President
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TAL
$11.17+0.49%$6.8B3.9+3409.3%1763.9%1500
$397.67+0.41%$2.1T28.7+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$91.95+0.10%$316.0B14.1+318.8%1510.7%1500
$131.46-0.32%$305.1B22.6+586.3%1305.9%1500
$184.74-1.40%$286.4B27.2+862.9%1745.9%1500
$146.57-0.87%$279.7B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$88.98-1.86%$251.9B14.4-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg-0.49%18.8+1211.5%2009.9%1500