TCBX
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move+0.29%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.3× avgLight volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 38Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
38.59
Open
38.18
Day Range37.55 – 38.84
37.55
38.84
52W Range25.17 – 43.84
25.17
43.84
72% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
74.1K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
10.2x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
0.52
Low vol
Performance
1D
+1.23%
5D
-1.12%
1M
-2.45%
3M
-12.82%
6M
+4.59%
YTD
-0.55%
1Y
+25.46%
Best: 1Y (+25.46%)Worst: 3M (-12.82%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
mixed signals
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 10x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
Insufficient data
Neutral
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net interest margin expansion or compression driven by Fed policy and deposit pricing competition

Loan growth rates in commercial real estate and C&I portfolios across Texas metro markets

Credit quality metrics including non-performing asset ratios and provision expense

Deposit growth and mix shift between non-interest bearing and interest-bearing accounts

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - As a commercial-focused regional bank, TCBX is highly sensitive to Texas economic conditions. Commercial real estate lending depends on property values, occupancy rates, and business expansion activity. C&I lending tracks closely with business confidence and capital expenditure cycles. A recession would pressure loan demand, increase credit losses, and compress margins as competition for quality borrowers intensifies.

Interest Rates

Net interest margin is the primary earnings driver. Rising short-term rates (Fed funds) typically benefit TCBX as loan yields reprice faster than deposit costs, though this depends on deposit competition intensity. The current environment (February 2026) reflects post-tightening cycle dynamics where margin pressure may emerge if deposit costs remain elevated while loan yields stabilize. A steepening yield curve (wider 10Y-2Y spread) is generally positive as it allows profitable term lending. The 0.03 debt/equity ratio means minimal sensitivity to funding costs.

Key Risks

Concentration risk in Texas economy - exposure to energy sector volatility, migration trends, and state-specific regulatory environment limits geographic diversification

Technology disruption from fintech competitors and larger banks with superior digital platforms eroding relationship banking advantages, particularly for treasury management and payments

Commercial real estate oversupply risk in Texas metros, particularly multifamily and office sectors where construction activity has been elevated

Investor Profile

value - The 1.1x price/book and 4.8x EV/EBITDA valuations suggest the stock trades at a discount to larger regional banks, attracting value investors seeking exposure to Texas growth markets. The 41.7% EPS growth and improving profitability metrics (ROE expanding) also appeal to GARP investors. The small $600M market cap limits institutional ownership but attracts community bank specialists and regional investors. Dividend yield not specified but likely modest given growth reinvestment priorities.

Watch on Earnings
Federal funds effective rate and Fed policy trajectory for NIM impactTexas unemployment rate and non-farm payroll growth as leading indicators of loan demand and credit quality10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread for profitability of term lending and overall banking sector sentimentCommercial real estate price indices and cap rates in Houston, Dallas, and Austin markets
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 4.8%

-3.2% vs SMA 50 · +1.5% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI37.9
Momentum fading
MACD-0.81
Below zero — bearish pulse · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$43.84+13.3%
EMA 50
$39.08+1.0%
Current
$38.70
EMA 200
$37.32-3.6%
52W Low
$25.17-35.0%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$25.1772th %ile$43.84
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:2
Edge:+1 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)58K
Recent Vol (5D)
47K-18%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts
Financials
News & Activity

TCBX News

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About

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PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TCBX
$38.70+1.23%$536M4.4+854.0%1806.6%1500
$306.69-0.24%$842.7B14.8+330.7%2039.3%1502
$327.82-0.55%$628.8B28.2+1134.0%5014.5%1498
$504.17-1.48%$438.6B28.4+1641.6%4564.7%1488
$52.04-0.41%$382.1B12.2-45.1%1592.6%1501
$187.55-0.22%$302.0B16.4+1147.7%1466.4%1516
$902.85-0.01%$274.1B15.5-138.4%1373.0%1515
Sector avg-0.24%17.1+703.5%2551.0%1503