US commercial construction activity, particularly non-residential building starts in Florida and Southeast coastal markets where the company has 60%+ revenue exposure
High-end residential construction trends in South Florida luxury condo market, which drives large curtain wall and window system orders
Backlog trends and project awards - commercial projects typically have 6-12 month lead times from order to revenue recognition
Gross margin trajectory reflecting raw material costs (aluminum, natural gas for float glass) versus pricing power in project bids
high - Revenue is directly tied to non-residential construction spending and high-end residential development, both highly cyclical. Commercial construction lags GDP by 6-12 months as projects move from planning to execution. The -11.8% net income decline despite modest revenue growth indicates margin compression typical of construction cycle downturns when fixed costs are spread over lower volumes. Luxury residential exposure adds volatility as high-net-worth buyers are sensitive to wealth effects and financial market conditions.
High sensitivity through two channels: (1) Rising mortgage rates directly reduce residential construction demand, particularly in luxury condo segment where buyers are rate-sensitive; (2) Higher rates increase financing costs for commercial developers, extending project timelines and reducing new starts. The 30-year mortgage rate moving from 3% (2021) to 7%+ (2023-2024) significantly impacted order flow. However, low debt/equity of 0.15 means minimal direct impact on Tecnoglass's own financing costs. Valuation multiples also compress as rates rise given long-duration cash flows.
Geographic concentration in Florida and Southeast US creates hurricane/weather event risk and exposure to regional economic cycles, regulatory changes (Florida building codes), and insurance cost inflation affecting construction economics
Potential US trade policy changes affecting Colombian imports - tariffs or trade restrictions could eliminate cost advantage, though USMCA/trade agreements currently provide favorable treatment
Energy cost volatility for float glass production (natural gas intensive process) and aluminum input costs, with limited ability to hedge given Colombian operations
value - The stock trades at 8.3x EV/EBITDA and 2.5x sales, below historical averages, attracting value investors betting on construction cycle recovery. The 25.6% ROE and strong FCF generation ($0.1B on $2.5B market cap) appeal to quality-value investors. Recent -27.4% one-year decline followed by 13.7% three-month recovery suggests cyclical bottom-fishing activity. Low institutional ownership typical of small-cap industrials means potential for re-rating if growth re-accelerates. Dividend potential given strong cash generation could attract income investors.
Trend
-10.1% vs SMA 50 · -29.4% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $892.1M $881.4M–$910.1M | — | $3.63 | — | ±3% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $982.6M $980.6M–$983.9M | ▲ +10.1% | $3.78 | ▲ +4.4% | ±1% | Moderate4 |
FY2026(current) | $1.1B $1.1B–$1.1B | ▲ +11.6% | $2.76 | ▼ -27.0% | ±1% | Moderate3 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
TGLS News
About
tecnoglass s.a. began operations on the 18th of april 1994 as an alternative for the production of tempered glass, laminated and insulated glass, glass with screen printing, bullet proof glazing and curved glass; responding to market demand for high quality products, competitive prices and timely deliveries.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TGLS◀ | $38.61 | -5.90% | $1.7B | 11.5 | +1049.6% | 1622.2% | 1500 |
| $888.31 | +0.00% | $409.2B | — | — | — | 1526 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | — | — | — | 1488 | |
| $171.18 | +0.00% | $230.5B | — | — | — | 1486 | |
| $220.49 | +0.00% | $173.8B | — | — | — | 1502 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| $399.44 | +0.00% | $155.1B | — | — | — | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.27% | — | 16.9 | +578.4% | 2267.3% | 1502 |