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★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $817M — +31.9% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Net fundraising and AUM growth: quarterly fundraising announcements, particularly in flagship private debt and infrastructure strategies where fee rates are highest
2Fee-paying AUM mix shift: movement toward higher-fee private equity (1.5-2.0%) versus lower-fee private debt (1.0-1.5%) strategies materially impacts revenue per AUM dollar
3Deployment pace and dry powder utilization: speed of capital deployment from recent fundraises into yielding investments drives both management fee step-ups and future performance fee potential
4European M&A and credit market activity: deal flow volumes in €50-500M enterprise value range directly impact origination pipeline and fund deployment opportunities
5Asset management fees (~55-60% of revenue): recurring management fees on €43.5B AUM across private debt, real estate, and private equity strategies
6Performance fees and carried interest (~15-20%): success-based compensation from fund outperformance, typically realized on 5-7 year fund cycles
7Investment income (~20-25%): proprietary balance sheet returns from co-investments and seed capital deployed alongside client funds
value - Trading at 0.9x book value despite 4.5% ROE suggests market skepticism about earnings quality or growth sustainability…
Rising rates have mixed effects: (1) Negative for fundraising as higher risk-free rates increase hurdle rates and reduce private market…
Watch on earnings: European high-yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2): leading indicator for private debt fundraising appetite and portfolio company refinancing stress, European M&A transaction volumes (€50-500M segment): directly drives private equity and private debt deployment pipeline, ECB policy rate and EURIBOR: impacts floating-rate private debt portfolio yields and institutional investor return requirements.
One Sentence Summary:
Tikehau Capital: the story is balanced — net fundraising and aum growth: quarterly fundraising announcements, particularly in flagship private debt and infrastructure strategies.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.