TMDX
Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+1.87%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume1.0× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 19Oversold — bounce setup
PRICE
Prev Close
62.04
Open
61.72
Day Range61.72 – 64.32
61.72
64.32
52W Range60.11 – 156.00
60.11
156.00
3% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.2M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
14.5x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
2.03
High vol
Performance
1D
+1.87%
5D
-12.88%
1M
-45.57%
3M
-51.32%
6M
-45.05%
YTD
-48.05%
1Y
-48.12%
Best: 1D (+1.87%)Worst: 3M (-51.32%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +30% YoY · 59% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 14x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 6.7 · FCF $4.40/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.18B
Revenue TTM$635.89M
Net Income TTM$171.92M
Free Cash Flow$151.36M
Gross Margin59.1%
Net Margin27.0%
Operating Margin14.9%
Return on Equity41.9%
Return on Assets12.0%
Debt / Equity1.66
Current Ratio6.74
EPS TTM$5.00
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

NOP case volume growth and penetration rates at contracted transplant centers - each incremental case drives high-margin recurring revenue

New transplant center contract signings for NOP services - expands addressable case volume and validates market adoption

Regulatory milestones and clinical data publications demonstrating superior organ utilization rates versus cold storage

Gross margin trajectory as NOP mix increases relative to capital equipment sales

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Organ transplantation is non-discretionary medical care driven by clinical need rather than economic conditions. Hospital capital budgets for transplant programs are relatively insulated from GDP fluctuations given the life-saving nature and reimbursement stability. However, severe recessions could delay hospital capital equipment purchases, though NOP service model mitigates this risk by eliminating upfront hospital investment.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create moderate headwinds through two channels: (1) higher cost of capital for hospital systems evaluating OCS console purchases, potentially accelerating NOP adoption but slowing direct equipment sales, and (2) valuation multiple compression for high-growth, unprofitable medtech stocks as investors demand higher risk premiums. The company's 1.46 debt/equity ratio suggests manageable financing cost exposure, but negative free cash flow makes equity financing costs relevant for growth capital.

Key Risks

Reimbursement risk - CMS or private payers could challenge incremental costs of OCS/NOP versus cold storage, though current transplant DRGs appear adequate to absorb technology costs

Clinical outcome scrutiny - any adverse events or studies questioning superiority versus cold storage could halt adoption momentum, particularly given the technology's premium pricing

Regulatory expansion risk - international approvals (Europe, Asia) face uncertain timelines and clinical trial requirements, delaying addressable market expansion

Investor Profile

growth - The stock attracts growth investors focused on disruptive medtech with large addressable markets. The 82.7% revenue growth, 241.7% net income growth, and early-stage profitability appeal to investors willing to accept negative free cash flow for market share capture. The 80.6% one-year return and 8.2x price/sales ratio reflect growth premium valuation. Momentum investors also participate given strong recent performance, while the 31.4% ROE attracts GARP (growth at reasonable price) investors as profitability scales.

Watch on Earnings
Quarterly NOP case volumes by organ type (heart, lung, liver) - tracks core volume growthNOP transplant center contract count and average cases per center - measures penetration depthGross margin percentage and NOP service mix - signals profitability inflection timingOperating cash flow and free cash flow trajectory - path to self-funding growth
Health Radar
4 strong1 watch1 concern
70/100
Liquidity
6.74Strong
Leverage
1.66Watch
Coverage
5.4xStrong
ROE
41.9%Strong
ROIC
6.9%Concern
Cash
$488MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE12 analysts
BUY
+104.9%upside to target
L $85.00
Med $129.50consensus
H $142.00
Buy
975%
Hold
325%
9 Buy (75%)3 Hold (25%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 19 — Oversold, watch for bounce
~
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 6.74 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 27, 2026
In 103 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 13.9%

-39.2% vs SMA 50 · -47.7% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI18.8
Oversold — potential bounce
MACD-13.06
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$156.0+146.8%
EMA 200
$115.9+83.4%
EMA 50
$99.04+56.7%
Current
$63.20
52W Low
$60.10-4.9%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$60.103th %ile$156.0
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:1
Dist days:8
Edge:+7 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.3M
Recent Vol (5D)
2.0M+52%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 9 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$429.6M
$428.5M$430.6M
$0.98
±7%
High7
FY2025
$600.7M
$599.9M$602.2M
+39.8%$2.60+165.2%
±8%
High9
FY2026(current)
$732.8M
$728.3M$741.6M
+22.0%$2.11-18.7%
±16%
High9
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTMDX
Last 8Q
+36.7%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
+67%
Q3'24
-59%
Q4'24
-14%
Q1'25
+141%
Q2'25
+92%
Q3'25
+78%
Q4'25
+39%
Q1'26
-52%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Analysts turning cautious
30d01
90d01
OppenheimerOutperform → Perform
May 6
DOWNGRADE
NeedhamBuy
Oct 23
UPGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Lovell StephanieDir
$178K
Mar 4
SELL
Weill DavidDir
$524K
Mar 4
SELL
Hernandez GerardoCFO
$870K
Mar 4
SELL
Hernandez GerardoCFO
$52K
Mar 2
SELL
Ranganath Anil P.See remarks
$120K
Mar 2
SELL
Corcoran NicholasSee remarks
$413K
Mar 2
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
5.3M
2
FMR LLC
5.1M
3
STATE STREET CORP
1.3M
4
Invesco Ltd.
1.0M
5
UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS INC
940K
6
MACQUARIE MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS, INC.
886K
7
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
866K
8
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
839K
News & Activity

TMDX News

About

TransMedics is the world's leader in portable extracorporeal warm perfusion and assessment of donor organs for transplantation. Headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts, the company was founded to address the unmet need for more and better organs for transplantation and has developed technologies to preserve organ quality, assess organ viability prior to transplant, and potentially increase the utilization of donor organs for the treatment of end-stage heart, lung and liver failure.

Industry
Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing
Matthew ForsythSenior Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Nicholas CorcoranSenior Vice President of Supply Chain & Operations
Miriam C. ProvostVice President of Global Regulatory Affairs
PeersHealth Care(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TMDX
$63.20+1.87%$2.2B12.6+3713.2%3142.7%1500
$66.13-5.07%$13.0B+12626.1%-14525.8%1500
$94.92-3.79%$12.6B+3288.2%-4239.0%1500
$523.69-3.00%$12.1B+43205.3%-3008.0%1500
$227.72-1.30%$11.7B+6554.5%-2868.8%1500
$57.90-0.86%$11.2B50.3+1459.3%147.7%1500
$76.67-3.79%$10.8B+2325815.3%-19.7%1500
Sector avg-2.28%31.5+342380.3%-3053.0%1500