TMQ
Next earnings: Jul 9, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move-7.31%Selling pressure
Volume
1
Volume1.3× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 57Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
4.45
Open
4.24
Day Range4.04 – 4.27
4.04
4.27
52W Range1.15 – 11.29
1.15
11.29
29% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-14.7x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
0.87
Market-like
Performance
1D
-7.31%
5D
-8.65%
1M
-4.41%
3M
-2.37%
6M
+17.05%
YTD
-4.41%
1Y
+232.26%
Best: 1Y (+232.26%)Worst: 5D (-8.65%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
thin 0% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
MODERATE
CR 1.5 · FCF negative
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$710.89M
Revenue TTM$0.00
Net Income TTM-$45.68M
Free Cash Flow-$5.24M
Gross Margin0.0%
Net Margin0.0%
Operating Margin0.0%
Return on Equity-36.2%
Return on Assets-29.6%
Debt / Equity0.00
Current Ratio1.46
EPS TTM$-0.27
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Copper and zinc spot prices - directly impact NPV calculations in feasibility studies and project valuations

Federal permitting progress for Ambler Access Road (critical infrastructure enabling Arctic Project development)

South32 partnership funding commitments and joint venture milestone achievements

Feasibility study updates showing improved economics or resource expansion at Arctic or Bornite

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Copper and zinc are highly cyclical industrial metals with demand directly tied to global manufacturing, construction, and infrastructure spending. Economic downturns reduce metal demand and prices, compressing project NPVs and making financing more difficult. Pre-production developers face additional sensitivity as equity market risk appetite for speculative mining projects correlates strongly with economic growth expectations.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates negatively impact Trilogy through multiple channels: (1) higher discount rates reduce NPV of long-dated future cash flows in project valuations, (2) increased cost of project debt financing reduces economic returns, (3) stronger USD from rate hikes typically pressures commodity prices, and (4) higher risk-free rates make speculative pre-revenue equities less attractive relative to fixed income alternatives. Development-stage miners are particularly rate-sensitive due to long time horizons before cash generation.

Key Risks

Permitting risk in Alaska - federal and state environmental reviews for Ambler Access Road face opposition from environmental groups and indigenous communities, with potential for legal challenges delaying or blocking critical infrastructure

Energy transition impact on zinc demand - increasing EV adoption and renewable energy may reduce zinc consumption in traditional applications (galvanizing steel), though offset by battery and grid storage applications

Remote location operational challenges - Arctic Project located 240 miles north of Fairbanks requires construction of 211-mile industrial access road, exposing project to extreme weather, logistics costs, and infrastructure dependencies

Investor Profile

growth/speculative - Attracts resource-focused investors seeking leveraged exposure to copper and zinc price appreciation through development-stage optionality. Typical holders include natural resource funds, commodity bulls positioning for supply deficits, and speculative retail investors. Not suitable for income or conservative value investors due to zero cash flow generation, binary permitting risks, and high volatility. Recent 179.5% one-year return reflects speculative momentum driven by copper price strength and permitting optimism.

Watch on Earnings
LME copper 3-month forward price (primary value driver for Arctic and Bornite project NPVs)LME zinc 3-month forward price (significant byproduct credit in Arctic Project economics)USD Index (DXY) - inverse correlation with commodity prices affects project valuationsFederal permitting milestones - Record of Decision timing for Ambler Access Road EIS
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
42/100
Liquidity
1.46Watch
Leverage
0.00Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
-36.2%Concern
ROIC
-8.9%Concern
Cash
$52MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE2 analysts
BUY
+88.1%upside to target
L $5.50
Med $7.75consensus
H $10.00
Buy
150%
Hold
150%
1 Buy (50%)1 Hold (50%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 57 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.46
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 27, 2026
In 103 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 31.3%

-12.2% vs SMA 50 · +15.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI56.6
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.03
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$11.29+174.0%
EMA 50
$4.51+9.4%
Current
$4.12
EMA 200
$3.49-15.4%
52W Low
$1.15-72.1%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$1.1529th %ile$11.29
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:6
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)2.8M
Recent Vol (5D)
3.4M+22%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$0-$0.04
±38%
Moderate3
FY2025
$0-$0.16
±38%
Low2
FY2026(current)
$907.0M
$907.0M$907.0M
-$0.09
±50%
Low1
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTMQ
Last 8Q
-41.7%avg beat
Beat 0 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
-33%
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
-100%
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q3'25
Q1'26
-200%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d10
TD SecuritiesHold → Buy
Feb 20
UPGRADE
Cantor FitzgeraldBuy
Oct 7
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesMarket Perform → Outperform
Oct 7
UPGRADE
TD SecuritiesHold
Jul 11
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesOutperform → Market Perform
Apr 23
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $222K sold · 30d window
Hensley William L. …Dir
$222K
May 8
SELL
Hensley William L. …Dir
$110K
Feb 26
SELL
Lang Gregory A.Dir
$95K
Dec 5
SELL
Lang Gregory A.Dir
$238K
Dec 5
SELL
Gowans JamesDir
$750K
Oct 16
SELL
Hensley William L. …Dir
$639K
Oct 8
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Electrum Group LLC
31.6M
2
Toroso Investments, LLC
9.9M
3
TSP Capital Management Group, LLC
6.8M
4
Old West Investment Management, LLC
4.7M
5
ALPS ADVISORS INC
1.9M
6
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC
1.7M
7
MARSHALL WACE, LLP
1.6M
8
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC
982K
News & Activity

TMQ News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

trilogy metals inc. (formerly novacopper inc.) is a metals exploration company focused on exploring and developing the high grade ambler mining district in alaska. the company controls the mineral rights to approximately 353,000 acres of land containing two known mineral belts, the ambler schist belt - a belt of polymetallic volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits (vms), and the bornite carbonate sequence - a series of carbonate-hosted copper replacement deposits. so far, exploration work has outlined several known deposits, including the company's arctic and bornite deposits which host over 8 billion lbs of copper, 2 billion lbs of zinc and significant precious metals, as well as over 30 identified polymetallic prospects of which 12 have been drill tested and encountered mineralization. to learn more about the company please visit our website at www.trilogymetals.com

CEO
Tony Giardini
Country
Canada
Richard GosseVice President of Exploration
Matthew Richard KeevilVice President of Investor Relations & Business Development
Olav LangelaarVice President of Corporate Development
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TMQ
$4.12-7.31%$711M1500
$404.35-3.20%$2.1T30.5+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$132.58-6.05%$307.9B20.7-44.8%1012.0%1500
$88.38-2.58%$303.7B13.6+318.8%1510.7%1500
$148.08-1.13%$282.6B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$181.58-1.83%$281.6B26.9+862.9%1745.9%1500
$183.40-0.23%$256.1B16.8+213.3%1482.4%1500
Sector avg-3.19%21.6+874.0%2137.5%1500