TREX
Earnings in 4 days · May 7, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.05%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 44Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
39.20
Open
39.31
Day Range38.50 – 39.62
38.50
39.62
52W Range29.77 – 68.78
29.77
68.78
23% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.9M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
21.8x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.66
High vol
Performance
1D
-1.05%
5D
-7.86%
1M
+9.08%
3M
-6.58%
6M
-19.72%
YTD
+10.58%
1Y
-35.35%
Best: YTD (+10.58%)Worst: 1Y (-35.35%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +2% · 39% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 22x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.2 · FCF $1.38/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$4.03B
Revenue TTM$1.17B
Net Income TTM$190.41M
Free Cash Flow$146.82M
Gross Margin39.2%
Net Margin16.2%
Operating Margin22.0%
Return on Equity19.2%
Return on Assets12.8%
Debt / Equity0.22
Current Ratio1.24
EPS TTM$1.79
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Housing starts and building permit trends (new construction represents 30-35% of end demand)

Home price appreciation and homeowner equity levels (drives remodeling activity and willingness to invest in premium outdoor living)

Quarterly volume growth rates and price realization (mix of unit volume vs. pricing contribution to revenue)

Gross margin performance relative to polyethylene resin input costs (PE film represents 30-40% of COGS)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Trex exhibits strong cyclical characteristics tied to discretionary home improvement spending and residential construction activity. During economic expansions with rising home values and consumer confidence, homeowners undertake premium remodeling projects including deck replacements (average project cost $8,000-15,000). New housing construction directly drives attached deck installations. The company experienced 15-20% revenue declines during 2008-2009 housing crisis and COVID-related volatility. Conversely, benefits from work-from-home trends and pandemic-era home improvement boom drove 20%+ growth in 2020-2021.

Interest Rates

Highly sensitive to mortgage rates through two channels: (1) Rising rates reduce housing affordability, suppressing new construction starts which represent 30-35% of Trex demand, and (2) Higher rates reduce home equity extraction and refinancing activity that funds discretionary remodeling projects. The 2022-2023 mortgage rate spike from 3% to 7%+ contributed to 10-15% volume declines. However, minimal direct impact on Trex's balance sheet given low leverage (0.15 D/E ratio). Valuation multiples compress when rates rise as investors rotate from growth stocks to fixed income.

Key Risks

Long-term shift toward alternative outdoor living solutions (pavers, porcelain tile, natural stone) as composite decking matures and competitors improve quality

Potential regulatory changes affecting recycled material sourcing or environmental claims that differentiate Trex's sustainability positioning

Saturation risk in wood-to-composite conversion as penetration increases from current 15-18% toward 25-30% ceiling in addressable markets

Investor Profile

growth - Trex attracts growth investors seeking exposure to long-term wood-to-composite conversion secular trend (estimated 15-18% current penetration with runway to 25-30%), premium brand positioning with pricing power, and market share leadership. However, recent volatility and housing cycle sensitivity have introduced value-oriented investors during drawdowns. The 36.1% three-month rally from depressed levels suggests momentum traders are active. High operating margins (26.5%) and ROE (20.9%) appeal to quality-focused growth managers, though negative FCF during expansion phase limits appeal to income/dividend investors.

Watch on Earnings
Monthly housing starts (HOUST) and building permits as leading indicators for new construction demandCase-Shiller Home Price Index for homeowner equity levels driving remodeling activity30-year mortgage rates affecting housing affordability and refinancing-driven remodelingPolyethylene resin spot prices (proxy: crude oil, natural gas) impacting gross margins with 2-3 quarter lag
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
58/100
Liquidity
1.24Watch
Leverage
0.22Strong
Coverage
3394.2xStrong
ROE
19.2%Strong
ROIC
13.7%Watch
Cash
$4MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE30 analysts
HOLD
+21.2%upside to target
L $32.00
Med $47.00consensus
H $54.00
Strong Buy
13%
Buy
827%
Hold
1963%
Sell
27%
9 Buy (30%)19 Hold (63%)2 Sell (7%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 44 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowLean Accumulation
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.24
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 4, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 31, 2026
In 89 days
PDividend PaymentOct 9, 2026
In 159 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 14.7%

-2.0% vs SMA 50 · -16.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI43.9
Momentum fading
MACD+0.42
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$68.78+77.3%
EMA 200
$46.35+19.5%
EMA 50
$39.86+2.8%
Current
$38.79
52W Low
$29.77-23.3%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$29.7723th %ile$68.78
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:7
Dist days:4
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.6M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.3M-18%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 15 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$1.2B
$1.2B$1.3B
$2.42
±3%
High10
FY2024
$1.1B
$1.1B$1.2B
-8.4%$2.04-15.9%
±1%
High12
FY2025
$1.2B
$1.1B$1.2B
+1.2%$1.83-10.3%
±3%
High15
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTREX
Last 8Q
+66.9%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1
+14%
Q2'24
+3%
Q3'24
+16%
Q4'24
+125%
Q1'25
+3%
Q2'25
+3%
Q3'25
-10%
Q4'25
+382%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d11
Loop Capital MarketsHold → Buy
Feb 25
UPGRADE
BenchmarkBuy → Hold
Feb 11
DOWNGRADE
Wolfe ResearchOutperform
Jan 7
UPGRADE
UBSNeutral → Buy
Jan 6
UPGRADE
JefferiesHold → Buy
Dec 15
UPGRADE
ZelmanOutperform → Neutral
Nov 5
DOWNGRADE
Vertical ResearchHold
Nov 5
DOWNGRADE
Deutsche BankBuy → Hold
Nov 5
DOWNGRADE
William BlairOutperform → Market Perform
Nov 5
DOWNGRADE
Loop Capital MarketsBuy → Hold
Aug 7
DOWNGRADE
StephensOverweight → Equal-Weight
Aug 7
DOWNGRADE
ZelmanOutperform
Jun 17
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
5 Buys/1 SellNet Buying
Rose B AndrewDir
$449K
Mar 3
BUY
Rose B AndrewDir
$40K
Mar 3
BUY
Rose B AndrewDir
$15K
Mar 2
BUY
Gandhi PrithviCFO
$479K
Nov 14
BUY
Rudolph Jacob T.SVP, CHRO
$3K
Oct 10
BUY
Fernandez Amy M.SVP, CLO and S…
$99K
Aug 6
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
WASATCH ADVISORS LP
3.5M
2
Nuveen, LLC
939K
3
DAVENPORT & Co LLC
507K
4
CONFLUENCE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC
391K
5
OSBORNE PARTNERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
208K
6
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
155K
7
Lansforsakringar Fondforvaltning AB (publ)
148K
8
Retirement Systems of Alabama
131K
News & Activity

TREX News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

trex company is the world's largest manufacturer of high-performance wood-alternative decking and railing. combining superior durability and aesthetics, trex also offers a truly environmentally responsible choice. in addition to a variety of decking and railing options, the trex product portfolio includes everything needed to create a dream outdoor living space - from led deck and landscape lighting, stylish pergolas and outdoor furniture and storage to innovative steel deck framing and drainage systems. visit www.trex.com.

CEO
Bryan Horix Fairbanks
Adam Dante ZambaniniExecutive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Kevin D. DunniganVice President, Corporate Controller & Treasury
Jodi LeeSenior Vice President of Marketing
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TREX
$38.79-1.05%$4.0B21.7+198.2%1621.6%1500
$397.67+0.41%$2.1T28.7+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$91.95+0.10%$316.0B14.1+318.8%1510.7%1500
$131.46-0.32%$305.1B22.6+586.3%1305.9%1500
$184.74-1.40%$286.4B27.2+862.9%1745.9%1500
$146.57-0.87%$279.7B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$88.98-1.86%$251.9B14.4-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg-0.71%21.4+752.8%1989.5%1500