TRTX
Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026 · After close
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move-1.70%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.7× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 60Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
8.24
Open
8.17
Day Range8.04 – 8.18
8.04
8.18
52W Range7.44 – 9.85
7.44
9.85
27% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
713.5K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
12.7x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.14%
Beta
0.90
Market-like
Performance
1D
-0.48%
5D
-3.17%
1M
+0.61%
3M
-6.89%
6M
-7.93%
YTD
-4.30%
1Y
+5.51%
Best: 1Y (+5.51%)Worst: 6M (-7.93%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
81% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 13x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 5.2 · FCF $1.13/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$626.20M
Revenue TTM$338.67M
Net Income TTM$65.54M
Free Cash Flow$88.07M
Gross Margin80.5%
Net Margin19.4%
Operating Margin75.0%
Return on Equity6.1%
Return on Assets1.5%
Debt / Equity3.17
Current Ratio5.24
EPS TTM$0.84
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net interest margin compression or expansion driven by SOFR movements versus funding cost changes

Credit quality indicators including non-accrual loans, loan loss provisions, and loan-to-value ratio deterioration

Loan origination volume and portfolio growth, particularly in high-yielding floating-rate senior loans

Dividend sustainability and book value per share stability, as mortgage REITs trade close to tangible book value

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Commercial real estate fundamentals are highly cyclical, with property values, occupancy rates, and tenant creditworthiness directly tied to GDP growth and employment. During recessions, loan defaults increase, property values decline (raising LTV ratios), and origination opportunities dry up. The 71.6% revenue decline suggests significant portfolio runoff or valuation adjustments, likely reflecting challenging CRE conditions. Office sector exposure is particularly vulnerable to structural work-from-home trends and urban core weakness.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity with complex dynamics. Rising short-term rates (SOFR) benefit floating-rate loan yields but increase funding costs on warehouse lines and term debt, compressing net interest margins if asset repricing lags liability repricing. However, the company's floating-rate loan book (estimated 70-80% of portfolio) provides natural hedge against rate increases. Conversely, falling rates reduce loan yields faster than funding costs decline. The inverted yield curve environment through 2023-2025 significantly pressured profitability. Book value is also sensitive to rates, as higher discount rates reduce present value of future cash flows.

Key Risks

Secular decline in office property values due to permanent work-from-home adoption, with Class B/C office facing potential 30-50% valuation declines and elevated default risk

Regulatory changes to REIT taxation or capital requirements that could reduce distributable income or increase compliance costs

Disintermediation risk from private credit funds and insurance companies offering more competitive loan terms with permanent capital structures

Investor Profile

dividend - Mortgage REITs attract income-focused investors seeking high current yields (typically 8-12%) from monthly or quarterly distributions. However, the 0.6x price-to-book ratio and negative recent returns suggest value investors may also be accumulating shares betting on book value recovery. The stock is NOT suitable for growth investors given the structural revenue decline and capital-intensive business model. High volatility and credit risk make this appropriate only for investors comfortable with potential dividend cuts and principal impairment.

Watch on Earnings
SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) and 3-month term SOFR as primary loan pricing benchmarkCommercial real estate transaction volumes and cap rates across multifamily, office, industrial, and retail sectorsOffice vacancy rates in primary markets (NYC, SF, LA, Chicago) and sublease space availabilityRegional bank CRE loan portfolios and FDIC actions, as banking sector stress affects competing supply of capital
Health Radar
1 strong5 concern
27/100
Liquidity
5.24Strong
Leverage
3.17Concern
Coverage
1.3xConcern
ROE
6.1%Concern
ROIC
5.7%Concern
Cash
$88MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE11 analysts
BUY
+23.5%upside to target
Buy
764%
Hold
327%
Sell
19%
7 Buy (64%)3 Hold (27%)1 Sell (9%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 60 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 5.24 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 6.4%

-1.0% vs SMA 50 · -7.4% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI60.5
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.06
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$9.85+21.6%
EMA 200
$8.51+5.0%
EMA 50
$8.29+2.3%
Current
$8.10
52W Low
$7.44-8.1%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$7.4427th %ile$9.85
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:0
Dist days:2
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)663K
Recent Vol (5D)
506K-24%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$43.9M
$42.1M$45.5M
-$0.36
±5%
Low2
FY2024
$157.5M
$156.5M$158.4M
+259.1%$1.11
±1%
Moderate4
FY2025
$149.2M
$149.1M$149.2M
-5.2%$0.98-11.8%
±2%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTRTX
Last 8Q
-8.6%avg beat
Beat 2 of 8 quartersMissed 4
+12%
Q3'24
+4%
Q4'24
-62%
Q1'25
-8%
Q2'25
Q3'25
-4%
Q4'25
-11%
Q1'26
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d10
CitigroupMarket Perform → Outperform
Mar 12
UPGRADE
CitigroupMarket Perform
Sep 17
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesOutperform
Apr 12
DOWNGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Sell
Apr 26
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/2 SellsNet Selling
Starwood Capital Gr…10 Percent Own…
$82.7M
May 8
SELL
Pe Holder, L.l.c.10 Percent Own…
$82.7M
May 8
SELL
Financials
Dividends11.85% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield11.85%
Quarterly Div.$0.2400
Est. Annual / Share$0.96
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Long Pond Capital, LP
7.0M
2
BlackRock, Inc.
6.3M
3
State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund A
3.1M
4
CITIGROUP INC
1.2M
5
One William Street Capital Management, L.P.
1.1M
6
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
930K
7
Nan Shan Life Insurance Co., Ltd.
712K
8
NORTHERN TRUST CORP
672K
News & Activity

TRTX News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. is a commercial real estate finance company that originates, acquires, and manages primarily first mortgage loans secured by institutional properties located in primary and select secondary markets in the United States. The Company is externally managed by TPG RE Finance Trust Management, L.P., a part of TPG Real Estate, which is the real estate investment platform of global alternative asset firm TPG.

Industry
Trusts, Estates, and Agency Accounts
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TRTX
$8.10-0.48%$626M9.7-523.1%1813.7%1500
$297.81-0.70%$798.0B14.1+330.7%2039.3%1503
$325.75+1.00%$624.4B28.0+1134.0%5014.5%1500
$494.20+0.87%$436.7B28.3+1641.6%4564.7%1490
$49.77-0.16%$353.2B11.4-45.1%1592.6%1495
$192.51-1.04%$303.6B16.6+1147.7%1466.4%1526
$948.47-2.11%$279.8B15.9-138.4%1373.0%1526
Sector avg-0.38%17.7+506.8%2552.0%1506