TWO
Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup1!1
Price
1
Move-2.47%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume1.0× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 70Overbought
PRICE
Prev Close
12.54
Open
12.15
Day Range12.07 – 12.29
12.07
12.29
52W Range8.78 – 14.17
8.78
14.17
64% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-3.2x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.17%
Beta
0.92
Market-like
Performance
1D
-2.47%
5D
+6.35%
1M
+11.08%
3M
+2.69%
6M
+25.82%
YTD
+16.48%
1Y
+3.12%
Best: 6M (+25.82%)Worst: 1D (-2.47%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
88% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
WEAK
CR 0.1 (low) · FCF negative
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.28B
Revenue TTM$765.12M
Net Income TTM-$342.96M
Free Cash Flow-$69.87M
Gross Margin88.0%
Net Margin-44.8%
Operating Margin57.3%
Return on Equity-19.1%
Return on Assets-3.3%
Debt / Equity4.79
Current Ratio0.09
EPS TTM$-3.17
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Federal Reserve policy shifts and forward guidance on rate trajectory - directly impacts financing costs and MBS valuations

Agency MBS spread movements relative to Treasury yields (typical range 100-180 bps over 10-year)

Book value per share changes driven by mark-to-market on securities portfolio and hedge effectiveness

Dividend sustainability and coverage ratio relative to economic return on equity

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Unlike equity REITs, mortgage REITs have limited direct GDP sensitivity. Economic growth affects the business indirectly through Fed policy responses and mortgage origination volumes. Recession risk matters primarily through its impact on Fed rate cuts and yield curve shape. Housing market strength drives prepayment speeds and MSR values but doesn't directly affect Agency MBS credit quality due to government guarantees.

Interest Rates

Extremely high sensitivity to both rate levels and curve shape. Rising short-term rates increase repo financing costs immediately while asset yields adjust more slowly, compressing net interest margin. Inverted yield curves are particularly damaging as they eliminate the positive carry that drives profitability. The company hedges duration risk but faces basis risk between hedges and assets. Rate volatility impacts both portfolio valuations and hedge effectiveness. Current 4.79x debt-to-equity implies substantial refinancing risk if repo markets tighten.

Key Risks

Federal Reserve balance sheet normalization reducing Agency MBS demand and widening spreads beyond historical norms

Regulatory changes to repo markets or REIT taxation affecting financing costs or distribution requirements

Structural decline in mortgage origination volumes reducing MSR opportunities and portfolio reinvestment options

Investor Profile

dividend - Mortgage REITs primarily attract income-focused investors seeking high dividend yields (TWO historically 10-14% yield range). However, current negative ROE makes this a distressed value opportunity for contrarian investors betting on rate environment normalization. Not suitable for growth investors given capital-intensive model with limited organic growth. The 0.7x price-to-book suggests deep value investors are evaluating liquidation scenarios or turnaround potential.

Watch on Earnings
3-month SOFR rate and term SOFR curve as primary driver of financing costsFannie Mae 30-year current coupon MBS spread to 10-year Treasury (key profitability indicator)Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) MBS holdings and monthly runoff paceMortgage refinancing index and prepayment speeds (CPR - constant prepayment rate)
Health Radar
6 concern
9/100
Liquidity
0.09Concern
Leverage
4.79Concern
Coverage
1.0xConcern
ROE
-19.1%Concern
ROIC
4.3%Concern
Cash
$842MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE21 analysts
HOLD
+14.5%upside to target
Buy
419%
Hold
1676%
Sell
15%
4 Buy (19%)16 Hold (76%)1 Sell (5%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 70 — Overbought, caution
~
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.09 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 20, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 2.0%

+13.9% vs SMA 50 · +16.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI70.1
Overbought — pullback risk
MACD+0.35
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$14.17+15.9%
Current
$12.23
EMA 50
$11.14-8.9%
EMA 200
$10.66-12.8%
52W Low
$8.78-28.2%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$8.7864th %ile$14.17
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:6
Dist days:8
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)2.0M
Recent Vol (5D)
2.4M+20%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 7 analysts

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$519.5M$0.84
±50%
High6
FY2024
$-132801250$0.62-26.1%
±20%
High7
FY2025
$-70250000$1.32+111.9%
±50%
High7
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTWO
Last 8Q
+7.3%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
Q2'22
+47%
Q3'22
-5%
Q4'22
+4%
Q1'23
+109%
Q2'23
-114%
Q3'23
-13%
Q1'26
+31%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d01
Compass PointBuy → Neutral
Mar 27
DOWNGRADE
UBSBuy → Neutral
Jan 23
DOWNGRADE
UBSNeutral → Buy
Jun 7
UPGRADE
Maxim GroupBuy
Feb 10
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Halm JillianChief Accounti…
$5K
Jan 15
SELL
Halm JillianChief Accounti…
$21K
Jan 12
SELL
Campbell James DEVP Servicing …
$21K
Jan 12
SELL
Boucher NathanEVP General Co…
$7K
Jan 9
SELL
Boucher NathanEVP General Co…
$8K
Jan 12
SELL
Dellal WilliamCFO
$81K
Dec 22
SELL
Financials
Dividends11.53% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield11.53%
Quarterly Div.$0.3400
Est. Annual / Share$1.36
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
ALPINE ASSOCIATES MANAGEMENT INC.
664K
2
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
511K
3
GraniteShares Advisors LLC
230K
4
Nuveen, LLC
208K
5
Golden State Equity Partners
122K
6
Simplicity Wealth,LLC
112K
7
CREDIT INDUSTRIEL ET COMMERCIAL
93K
8
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
70K
News & Activity

TWO News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

two harbors investment corp., a maryland corporation, is a real estate investment trust that invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, residential mortgage loans, mortgage servicing rights, commercial real estate and other financial assets. two harbors is headquartered in new york, ny, and is externally managed and advised by prcm advisers llc, a wholly-owned subsidiary of pine river capital management l.p. additional information is available at www.twoharborsinvestment.com.

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
CEO
Thomas Siering
Sheila LichtyVice President & Treasurer
Nicholas LeticaVice President & Chief Investment Officer
Robert RushVice President & Chief Risk Officer
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TWO
$12.23-2.47%$1.3B-2840.1%-7501.5%1500
$307.65-1.54%$829.7B14.6+330.7%2039.3%1502
$326.85-0.36%$626.5B28.1+1134.0%5014.5%1498
$504.74+1.87%$446.8B28.9+1641.6%4564.7%1488
$52.19-1.97%$374.6B11.9-45.1%1592.6%1501
$188.03-1.13%$298.6B16.2+1147.7%1466.4%1516
$903.27-2.21%$268.0B15.2-138.4%1373.0%1515
Sector avg-1.12%19.2+175.8%1221.3%1503