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UFPI(UFPI)
UFPI
Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup2↓
PRICE
Prev Close
83.51
Open
83.33
Day Range79.97 – 84.09
79.97
84.09
52W Range79.97 – 118.00
79.97
118.00
0% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
424.1K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
17.4x
EPS (TTM)
—
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
0.96
Market-like
Performance
1D
-4.19%5D
-4.73%1M
-13.99%3M↓
-30.18%6M
-11.58%YTD
-12.13%1Y
-21.06%Worst: 3M (-30.18%)
Quick Read
Trend—Insufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -6% YoY · thin 17% gross marginValuation
FAIR
P/E 17x vs ~20x sectorHealth
STRONG
CR 4.6 · FCF $5.28/shNeutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$4.52B
Revenue TTM$6.19B
Net Income TTM$263.98M
Free Cash Flow$298.15M
Gross Margin16.6%
Net Margin4.3%
Operating Margin5.4%
Return on Equity8.4%
Return on Assets6.5%
Debt / Equity0.08
Current Ratio4.64
EPS TTM$4.68
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock
Lumber futures prices (LBUSD) - directly impacts input costs and gross margins with 1-2 quarter lag
Housing starts (HOUST) and building permits - drives 60-65% of revenue tied to residential/commercial construction activity
Industrial production trends - affects packaging segment demand from manufacturing and logistics customers
Mortgage rates and housing affordability - influences new home construction volumes and repair/remodel activity
Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle
high - UFPI exhibits strong cyclical correlation with residential construction (60-65% revenue exposure) and industrial manufacturing activity (30-35% exposure). Housing starts directly drive demand for roof trusses and wall panels, while industrial production affects packaging volumes. The -7.8% revenue decline reflects 2025 housing market slowdown from elevated mortgage rates. GDP growth below 2% typically pressures both segments simultaneously.
Interest Rates
Rising mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) significantly impact UFPI through reduced housing affordability and lower new home construction. Each 100bp mortgage rate increase historically correlates with 10-15% decline in housing starts over 12-18 months. Higher rates also increase UFPI's working capital financing costs, though minimal given 0.12 debt/equity ratio. The 26% three-month stock rally likely reflects anticipation of rate cuts improving 2026-2027 housing demand.
Key Risks
Lumber supply chain disruption - wildfires, Canadian trade disputes, or mill closures can spike input costs beyond ability to pass through pricing
Substitution risk from engineered alternatives - cross-laminated timber, steel framing, and composite materials gaining share in commercial construction
Housing market structural headwinds - demographic shifts, affordability crisis, and remote work reducing single-family home formation rates below historical norms
Investor Profile
value - UFPI trades at 1.0x sales and 9.9x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages, attracting value investors betting on housing recovery. The 6.3% FCF yield appeals to cash flow-focused investors. Cyclical value players rotate into UFPI anticipating economic reacceleration and margin expansion from operating leverage. Not a dividend story (likely modest yield given growth reinvestment), nor pure growth given mature industry.
Watch on Earnings
Lumber futures (LBUSD) - leading indicator of gross margin pressure with 60-90 day lagHousing starts (HOUST) and single-family permits - direct demand driver for construction segment30-year mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) - affects housing affordability and construction pipeline 6-12 months forwardIndustrial Production Index (INDPRO) - correlates with packaging segment demand from manufacturing customers
Health Radar
4 strong1 watch1 concern
71/100Liquidity
4.64Strong
Leverage
0.08Strong
Coverage
30.8xStrong
ROE
8.4%Watch
ROIC
7.0%Concern
Cash
$925MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE8 analysts
BUY
▲ +21.9%upside to target
L $87.00
Med $97.50consensus
H $108.00Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
●
✗RSI RangeRSI 31 — Bearish momentum
Volume
●
✗Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
●
✗Last EarningsMissed estimates
●
✓Analyst ConsensusBuy
●
✓LiquidityCurrent Ratio 4.64 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentSep 10, 2026
In 117 days
FinancialsFull statements →
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →Trend
▼ DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 4.7%
-13.0% vs SMA 50 · -17.1% vs SMA 200
Momentum
RSI30.9Momentum fading
MACD-3.30Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$118.0+47.5%
EMA 200
$95.72+19.6%
EMA 50
$92.22+15.3%
Current
$80.01
52W Low
$79.97-0.0%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$79.970th %ile$118.0
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution PressureHeavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:9
Edge:+5 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)445K
Recent Vol (5D)
563K+27%
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Earnings & Analysts
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $7.0B $6.9B–$7.2B | — | $8.15 | — | ±2% | Low1 |
FY2024 | $6.6B $6.6B–$6.6B | ▼ -5.9% | $6.88 | ▼ -15.6% | ±1% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $6.4B $6.4B–$6.4B | ▼ -3.4% | $5.33 | ▼ -22.5% | ±1% | Moderate4 |
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryUFPI
Last 8Q
-13.2%avg beat
Beat 1 of 8 quartersMissed 7↓ Estimates falling+1%
Q3'24
-13%
Q4'24
-3%
Q1'25
-17%
Q2'25
-13%
Q3'25
-6%
Q4'25
-32%
Q1'26
-23%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →Mild positive momentum
30d▲ 1▼ 0
90d▲ 1▼ 0
BMO CapitalMarket Perform → Outperform
May 5
UPGRADE
WedbushBuy → Outperform
Oct 8
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →0 Buys/2 SellsNet Selling
Missad Matthew JExecutive Chai…
$1.0M
Dec 11
SELL
Wooldridge Michael …Dir
$111K
Nov 26
SELL
Financials
Dividends1.76% yield
+5.1% avg annual growthAnnual Yield1.76%
Quarterly Div.$0.3600
Est. Annual / Share$1.44
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
1
BlackRock, Inc.
7.7M▲2
KAYNE ANDERSON RUDNICK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC
3.2M▲3
STATE STREET CORP
2.2M▲4
WASATCH ADVISORS LP
2.0M▲5
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
1.9M▲6
Boston Partners
1.8M▼7
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
1.5M▲8
FMR LLC
1.3M▲News & Activity
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Schwab Remains Highly Attractive
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About
ufp industries is a holding company whose operating subsidiaries – ufp industrial, ufp construction and ufp retail solutions – manufacture, distribute and sell a wide variety of products used in residential and commercial construction, packaging and industrial applications. founded in 1955, the company has operations in north america, europe, asia and australia.
CEO
Matthew Missad
Website
William D. Schwartz Jr.Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Allen T. PetersChief Operating Officer of UFP Retail Solutions LLC & Executive Vice President of Innovation
Chad C. Uhlig-EastinExecutive Vice President of ProWood
Peers— Industrials(7 companies)
Screen sector →| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UFPI◀ | $80.01 | -4.19% | $4.5B | 17.1 | -499.0% | 466.4% | 1500 |
| $888.31 | -3.47% | $409.2B | 43.7 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1523 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | 33.7 | +1848.2% | 1898.2% | 1489 | |
| $171.18 | -2.56% | $230.5B | 31.8 | +974.1% | 759.8% | 1488 | |
| $220.49 | -3.80% | $173.8B | 79.6 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1503 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1504 | |
| $399.44 | -2.12% | $155.1B | 38.9 | +1033.0% | 1489.7% | 1504 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.73% | — | 38.1 | +1048.9% | 1298.4% | 1502 |