UGI
Earnings in 2 days · May 6, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.41%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.9× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 34Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
35.40
Open
35.22
Day Range34.81 – 35.61
34.81
35.61
52W Range31.62 – 41.34
31.62
41.34
34% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.6M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
13.0x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.04%
Beta
0.70
Low vol
Performance
1D
-1.91%
5D
-6.32%
1M
-2.48%
3M
-12.35%
6M
+5.04%
YTD
-5.42%
1Y
+5.61%
Best: 1Y (+5.61%)Worst: 3M (-12.35%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +3% YoY · 49% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 13x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.8 (low) · FCF $1.31/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$7.50B
Revenue TTM$7.34B
Net Income TTM$600.00M
Free Cash Flow$282.00M
Gross Margin49.0%
Net Margin8.2%
Operating Margin14.6%
Return on Equity12.2%
Return on Assets3.8%
Debt / Equity1.35
Current Ratio0.78
EPS TTM$2.79
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Heating degree days (HDDs) and winter weather severity - drives propane volumes which represent 40%+ of earnings, with each 10% HDD variance impacting EPS by ~$0.15-0.20

Natural gas and propane commodity price spreads - affects propane margin capture and inventory valuation, though partially hedged

Regulatory outcomes in Pennsylvania/West Virginia - rate case decisions, allowed ROE, and infrastructure cost recovery mechanisms determine utility earnings trajectory

AmeriGas operational efficiency and customer retention - margin per gallon improvements, route optimization, and tank monitoring technology adoption drive profitability

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low-to-moderate - Regulated utilities (~40% of EBITDA) are non-cyclical with stable residential/commercial demand regardless of GDP. Propane distribution has defensive characteristics (heating is non-discretionary) but agricultural and industrial volumes correlate with farming activity and manufacturing output. Residential propane demand is relatively GDP-insensitive, but new construction activity affects customer additions. Overall business demonstrates recession resilience with 60%+ of volumes from non-discretionary heating.

Interest Rates

Rising rates create headwinds through higher financing costs on $5.6B debt (1.35x D/E), though regulated utilities can recover increased costs in rate cases with 12-18 month lag. Rate increases pressure valuation multiples as utility stocks compete with bonds for income investors. However, inflation often accompanies rate hikes, supporting propane pricing power and utility rate base growth. Current 10.1x EV/EBITDA suggests moderate rate sensitivity given hybrid utility/distribution model.

Key Risks

Energy transition and electrification - long-term risk to natural gas utility throughput as building codes shift toward electric heat pumps, though Pennsylvania/West Virginia have slower adoption rates and existing housing stock provides 20+ year runway

Propane market maturity and customer attrition - secular decline in propane heating customers as natural gas pipelines expand into rural areas, offset partially by acquisitions and commercial/agricultural growth

Regulatory lag and political risk - Pennsylvania regulatory environment has been constructive but future rate case outcomes, pipeline safety mandates, and environmental regulations could compress allowed returns or increase compliance costs

Investor Profile

dividend/value - Attracts income-focused investors seeking 4%+ yield with modest growth (historical 2-4% dividend CAGR) and defensive characteristics. Value investors appreciate 1.1x P/S and 10.1x EV/EBITDA relative to pure-play utilities trading at 12-15x. The 152% net income growth (likely recovering from prior-year charges) and 16.8% 1-year return suggest recent re-rating. Not a growth story given 1.1% revenue growth and mature markets, but hybrid utility/distribution model provides diversification.

Watch on Earnings
Heating degree days (HDDs) vs. 30-year normal - primary driver of propane volume varianceNatural gas spot prices (Henry Hub) and propane wholesale prices (Mont Belvieu) - input costs and margin indicatorsPennsylvania PUC rate case filings and decisions - regulatory ROE and rate base approvalsAmeriGas customer count and retention rate - organic growth and competitive positioning
Health Radar
3 watch3 concern
30/100
Liquidity
0.78Concern
Leverage
1.35Watch
Coverage
2.6xWatch
ROE
12.2%Watch
ROIC
7.3%Concern
Cash
$355MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE10 analysts
HOLD
+20.3%upside to target
L $40.00
Med $42.00consensus
H $44.00
Buy
440%
Hold
440%
Sell
220%
4 Buy (40%)4 Hold (40%)2 Sell (20%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 34 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.78 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 2.4%

-5.6% vs SMA 50 · -3.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI34.4
Momentum fading
MACD-0.08
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$41.34+18.5%
EMA 50
$37.07+6.2%
EMA 200
$36.23+3.8%
Current
$34.90
52W Low
$31.62-9.4%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$31.6234th %ile$41.34
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:1
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.7M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.5M-14%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 2 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$7.4B
$7.2B$7.6B
$3.18
±3%
Low2
FY2026(current)
$7.6B
$7.4B$7.8B
+1.9%$3.02-5.0%
±1%
Low1
FY2027
$7.9B
$7.7B$8.1B
+5.1%$3.33+10.4%
±2%
Low1
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryUGI
Last 8Q
+52.4%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates rising
+20%
Q2'24
+206%
Q3'24
+36%
Q4'24
+26%
Q1'25
+19%
Q2'25
+90%
Q3'25
+39%
Q4'25
-16%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Analysts turning cautious
30d01
90d01
JefferiesBuy → Hold
Apr 30
DOWNGRADE
Wells FargoEqual-Weight → Overweight
Aug 28
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Tematio Jean FelixVP, CAO & Corp…
$489K
Feb 11
SELL
Hartz Joseph L.President of S…
$192K
Dec 17
SELL
O'brien SeanCFO
$895K
Dec 5
SELL
O'brien SeanCFO
$186K
Dec 5
SELL
Bell Hans G.President of S…
$440K
Nov 26
SELL
Hartz Joseph L.President of S…
$580K
Nov 25
SELL
Financials
Dividends4.30% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield4.30%
Quarterly Div.$0.3750
Est. Annual / Share$1.50
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Hamlin Capital Management, LLC
2.6M
2
Lansforsakringar Fondforvaltning AB (publ)
1.3M
3
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
1.0M
4
River Road Asset Management, LLC
779K
5
Retirement Systems of Alabama
611K
6
Nuveen, LLC
591K
7
BURNEY CO/
466K
8
WEDGE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L L P/NC
433K
News & Activity

UGI News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

ugi corporation (the “company”) is a holding company that, through subsidiaries, distributes, stores, transports and markets energy products and related services. we are a domestic and international retail distributor of propane and butane (which are liquefied petroleum gases (“lpg”)); a provider of natural gas and electric service through regulated local distribution utilities; a generator of electricity; a regional marketer of energy commodities; an owner and manager of midstream assets; and a regional provider of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration and electrical contracting services. our subsidiaries and affiliates operate principally in the following six business segments: • amerigas propane • international propane - antargaz • international propane - flaga & other • energy services • electric generation • gas utility ugi corporation (nyse:ugi) is a fortune 500 company that provides investors with a balanced growth and income vehicle. ugi has paid common dividend

Sector
Industry
Natural Gas Distribution
CEO
John Walsh
Michael SharpPresident of AmeriGas Propane, Inc
Veronique SubileauSenior Vice President of Human Resources
Jean Felix-Tematio DontsopVice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
UGI
$34.90-1.91%$7.6B+106.8%1500
$401.61+0.00%$2.1T1500
$90.13+0.00%$316.0B14.11510.7%1500
$133.27+0.00%$305.1B23.71305.9%1500
$183.46+0.00%$286.4B27.2+862.9%1745.9%1500
$144.62+0.00%$279.7B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$89.26+0.00%$251.9B14.4668.4%1500
Sector avg-0.27%20.1+522.3%1559.0%1500