ULCC
Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move+9.61%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.0× avgLight volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 41Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
4.37
Open
4.59
Day Range4.59 – 4.81
4.59
4.81
52W Range3.02 – 6.66
3.02
6.66
49% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
6.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-7.3x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.49
Market-like
Performance
1D
+6.85%
5D
+15.92%
1M
+22.41%
3M
-22.65%
6M
+13.51%
YTD
-7.22%
1Y
+24.15%
Best: 1Y (+24.15%)Worst: 3M (-22.65%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev -0% · 31% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
WEAK
CR 0.5 (low) · FCF negative
Lean Bearish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.00B
Revenue TTM$3.80B
Net Income TTM-$366.00M
Free Cash Flow-$217.00M
Gross Margin31.2%
Net Margin-9.6%
Operating Margin-10.1%
Return on Equity-88.6%
Return on Assets-5.2%
Debt / Equity0.00
Current Ratio0.49
EPS TTM$-1.60
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Unit revenue (RASM - Revenue per Available Seat Mile) trends reflecting pricing power and demand strength in leisure markets

Load factor performance relative to breakeven thresholds (typically 75-80% for ULCC model profitability)

Jet fuel prices and hedging effectiveness - fuel represents 25-35% of operating costs for airlines

Competitive capacity discipline in overlapping markets, particularly from Southwest and legacy carriers' basic economy expansion

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Leisure travel demand, which comprises 90%+ of Frontier's passenger base, correlates strongly with discretionary consumer spending, employment levels, and consumer confidence. During economic slowdowns, price-sensitive leisure travelers defer trips or trade down further, compressing yields. The ULCC model's reliance on filling every seat makes it particularly vulnerable to demand shocks. GDP growth, retail sales trends, and consumer sentiment directly impact booking curves and willingness to pay for ancillaries.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates negatively impact Frontier through multiple channels: (1) higher financing costs on aircraft leases and debt (though current 0.0 D/E suggests minimal debt), (2) reduced consumer discretionary spending as mortgage and credit card costs rise, dampening leisure travel demand, (3) valuation multiple compression as investors demand higher returns from unprofitable growth companies. Lower rates stimulate leisure travel demand and improve access to capital for fleet expansion.

Key Risks

ULCC model commoditization as legacy carriers match pricing through basic economy products while offering superior networks and loyalty programs, eroding Frontier's cost advantage

Pilot and crew labor shortages driving wage inflation industry-wide, with ULCCs facing retention challenges against higher-paying legacy carriers

Regulatory risks including potential passenger rights legislation, slot restrictions at congested airports, and environmental regulations increasing operating costs

Investor Profile

momentum/turnaround - The 43.4% three-month return suggests recent momentum despite negative fundamentals, attracting short-term traders betting on operational improvement or industry capacity rationalization. Value investors may be drawn to 0.3x P/S ratio if they believe the ULCC model can return to profitability. However, negative margins and -42.4% one-year return indicate this is a speculative, turnaround-oriented position rather than quality growth or stable value investment. Not suitable for income investors given no dividend and cash burn.

Watch on Earnings
WTI crude oil and jet fuel crack spreads - fuel is 25-35% of airline operating costsTSA daily passenger throughput trends indicating overall U.S. air travel demand recovery and growthConsumer sentiment index (University of Michigan) as leading indicator for discretionary leisure travel bookingsFrontier's monthly load factor and RASM releases (if disclosed) showing real-time demand trends
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
41/100
Liquidity
0.49Concern
Leverage
0.00Strong
Coverage
193.0xStrong
ROE
-88.6%Concern
ROIC
-7.9%Concern
Cash
$671MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE11 analysts
HOLD
+25.3%upside to target
L $6.00
Med $6.00consensus
H $8.00
Buy
218%
Hold
655%
Sell
327%
2 Buy (18%)6 Hold (55%)3 Sell (27%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
6/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 41 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowLean Accumulation
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.49 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentSep 9, 2026
In 126 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 2.1%

+9.5% vs SMA 50 · +7.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI40.9
Momentum fading
MACD-0.09
Below zero — bearish pulse · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$6.66+39.0%
Current
$4.79
EMA 200
$4.29-10.4%
EMA 50
$4.10-14.3%
52W Low
$3.02-37.0%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$3.0249th %ile$6.66
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:2
Edge:+2 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)3.5M
Recent Vol (5D)
3.2M-8%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 9 analysts

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$3.6B
$3.5B$3.8B
-$0.28
±5%
High6
FY2024
$3.8B
$3.7B$3.8B
+4.0%$0.13
±50%
High9
FY2025
$3.7B
$3.7B$3.7B
-1.4%-$0.70
±12%
High8
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryULCC
Last 8Q
+24.8%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
+17%
Q3'24
-79%
Q4'24
+475%
Q1'25
+14%
Q2'25
-11%
Q3'25
-366%
Q4'25
+130%
Q1'26
+19%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d02
BarclaysOverweight → Underweight
Mar 2
DOWNGRADE
Deutsche BankBuy → Hold
Feb 10
DOWNGRADE
Deutsche BankHold → Buy
Sep 2
UPGRADE
Deutsche BankBuy → Hold
Mar 4
DOWNGRADE
Deutsche BankBuy
Dec 11
UPGRADE
Piper SandlerOverweight
Sep 30
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesUnderperform → Market Perform
Sep 30
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesMarket Perform → Underperform
Jul 5
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesOutperform → Market Perform
May 28
DOWNGRADE
Cowen & Co.Outperform → Market Perform
Sep 14
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesOutperform
Jun 23
UPGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/1 SellNet Selling
Schuller SteveSVP, Human Res…
$30K
Feb 6
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Wildcat Capital Management, LLC
28.1M
2
U S GLOBAL INVESTORS INC
6.8M
3
UBS Group AG
583K
4
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
163K
5
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
103K
6
Nuveen, LLC
102K
7
IMC-Chicago, LLC
49K
8
Police & Firemen's Retirement System of New Jersey
24K
News & Activity

ULCC News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

frontier airlines is committed to offering ‘low fares done right’ to more than 60 destinations in the united states, dominican republic and mexico on nearly 300 daily flights. headquartered in denver, frontier’s hard-working aviation professionals pride themselves in delivering the company’s signature low fares done right hospitality to customers. frontier airlines is the proud recipient of the federal aviation administration’s 2015 diamond award for maintenance excellence and was recently named the industry’s most fuel-efficient airline by the international council on clean transportation (icct) as a result of superior technology and operational efficiencies.

CEO
Barry L. Biffle
Steve SchullerSenior Vice President of Human Resources
Trevor J. StedkeSenior Vice President of Operations
Tyri SquyresVice President of Marketing
PeersIndustrials(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
ULCC
$4.79+6.85%$1.0B-135.1%-367.9%1500
$908.50-1.67%$420.9B44.5+429.0%1312.8%1523
$303.55+2.20%$299.5B34.4+1848.2%1898.2%1489
$176.51-0.02%$232.8B32.1+974.1%759.8%1487
$229.69+1.39%$176.9B81.0+3449.4%249.7%1503
$412.43-2.74%$159.4B40.0+1033.0%1489.7%1507
$267.85+0.23%$156.7B21.7+107.2%2912.3%1506
Sector avg+0.89%42.3+1100.8%1179.2%1502