UMBF
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+2.43%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume1.3× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 64Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
126.17
Open
127.04
Day Range126.00 – 129.84
126.00
129.84
52W Range98.16 – 136.11
98.16
136.11
82% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
622.4K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
11.3x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.02%
Beta
0.81
Market-like
Performance
1D
+2.43%
5D
+6.00%
1M
+12.34%
3M
+0.93%
6M
+20.92%
YTD
+12.34%
1Y
+28.80%
Best: 1Y (+28.80%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +57% YoY · 57% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 11x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.2 (low) · FCF $12.95/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$9.84B
Revenue TTM$4.46B
Net Income TTM$882.50M
Free Cash Flow$985.18M
Gross Margin56.7%
Net Margin19.8%
Operating Margin20.9%
Return on Equity11.7%
Return on Assets1.2%
Debt / Equity0.51
Current Ratio0.21
EPS TTM$11.60
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net interest margin expansion/compression driven by Fed policy and yield curve steepness

Loan growth rates in commercial real estate and C&I portfolios across Midwest/Southwest markets

Institutional services revenue growth from healthcare payment volumes and fund administration AUM

Credit quality metrics including non-performing asset ratios and provision expense in CRE exposure

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate-to-high - Regional bank earnings are highly correlated with GDP growth through loan demand, credit quality, and fee income. Commercial real estate exposure creates cyclical sensitivity to property values and occupancy rates. Institutional services provide some counter-cyclicality as healthcare spending is relatively stable, but fund services AUM fluctuates with equity markets. The Midwest/Southwest geographic footprint ties performance to regional economic conditions including energy sector health in Oklahoma/Texas.

Interest Rates

High positive sensitivity to rising short-term rates through net interest margin expansion on variable-rate commercial loans and repricing of deposits. The 10Y-2Y yield curve spread is critical - steeper curves expand NIM while inversions compress profitability. Current 9.6% ROE suggests moderate asset sensitivity. Duration of securities portfolio and deposit beta (how quickly deposit costs rise with Fed funds) are key variables. Falling rates would compress NIM but could stimulate loan demand and reduce credit costs.

Key Risks

Digital banking disruption from fintechs and national banks eroding deposit franchise and commoditizing traditional banking services

Commercial real estate structural headwinds from remote work reducing office demand and e-commerce pressuring retail properties

Regulatory capital requirements and compliance costs disproportionately affecting regional banks post-2023 banking crisis

Investor Profile

value - The 1.3x price/book and 2.2x price/sales ratios suggest value orientation, with investors attracted to regional bank exposure trading below historical multiples. The 9.6% ROE indicates moderate profitability requiring operational improvement to attract growth investors. Recent 22.9% three-month return suggests momentum traders participating in regional bank recovery trade. Dividend investors likely attracted to stable payout from mature banking franchise, though yield not specified in fundamentals.

Watch on Earnings
Federal Funds Rate and 10Y-2Y yield curve spread for NIM impactHigh yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) as leading indicator of credit stressCommercial real estate vacancy rates and cap rates in Kansas City, Denver, Dallas marketsHealthcare spending trends and hospital admission volumes for payment processing revenue
Health Radar
1 strong1 watch4 concern
24/100
Liquidity
0.21Concern
Leverage
0.51Strong
Coverage
0.6xConcern
ROE
11.7%Watch
ROIC
1.0%Concern
Cash
$953MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE17 analysts
BUY
+12.2%upside to target
L $140.00
Med $145.00consensus
H $170.00
Strong Buy
16%
Buy
953%
Hold
741%
10 Buy (59%)7 Hold (41%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 64 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.21 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 4, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 31, 2026
In 89 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 16.0%

+14.9% vs SMA 50 · +33.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI63.8
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+3.33
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$136.1+5.3%
Current
$129.2
EMA 50
$115.3-10.8%
52W Low
$98.16-24.0%
EMA 200
$96.92-25.0%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$98.1682th %ile$136.1
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:4
Edge:+1 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)558K
Recent Vol (5D)
395K-29%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 8 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$1.5B
$1.5B$1.5B
$7.80
±2%
Low2
FY2024
$1.6B
$1.6B$1.6B
+8.5%$8.97+15.1%
±1%
High5
FY2025
$2.6B
$2.6B$2.6B
+61.7%$10.72+19.4%
±5%
High8
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 6 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryUMBF
Last 8Q
+12.3%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+3%
Q3'24
Q4'24
+11%
Q1'25
+18%
Q2'25
+25%
Q3'25
+8%
Q4'25
+14%
Q1'26
+21%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
CitigroupBuy → Neutral
Feb 3
DOWNGRADE
BarclaysOverweight
Apr 30
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesOutperform → Strong Buy
Oct 26
UPGRADE
Piper SandlerOverweight
Sep 13
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
2 Buys/4 SellsNet Selling
Graves Greg MDir
$28K
Feb 2
BUY
Peterman TamaraDir
$20K
Feb 2
BUY
Kemper J MarinerDir
$1.0M
Feb 2
SELL
Kemper J MarinerDir
$936K
Feb 2
SELL
Kemper J MarinerDir
$452K
Feb 2
SELL
Gallagher Kevin Cha…Dir
$50K
Feb 3
SELL
Financials
Dividends1.28% yield
+5.7% avg annual growth
Annual Yield1.28%
Quarterly Div.$0.4300
Est. Annual / Share$1.72
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
656K
2
VAUGHAN NELSON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P.
295K
3
ProShare Advisors LLC
215K
4
Boston Trust Walden Corp
208K
5
Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A.
170K
6
CONGRESS ASSET MANAGEMENT CO /MA
151K
7
STRS OHIO
96K
8
Retirement Systems of Alabama
88K
News & Activity

UMBF News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

umb financial corporation is a leading provider of financial services for individuals and institutions. bank deposit products provided by umb bank n.a., member fdic. equal housing lender.

Industry
Monetary Authorities-Central Bank
CEO
J. Mariner Kemper
Thomas S. TerryExecutive Vice President & Chief Credit Officer
Robert Brian BeairdChief HR Officer & Executive Vice President
Kay GregoryDirector of Investor Relations & Senior Vice President
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
UMBF
$129.24+2.43%$9.8B11.1+6851.8%1580.6%1500
$312.47-0.24%$842.7B14.8+330.7%2039.3%1502
$328.03-0.55%$628.8B28.2+1134.0%5014.5%1498
$495.46-1.48%$438.6B28.4+1641.6%4564.7%1488
$53.24-0.41%$382.1B12.2-45.1%1592.6%1501
$190.18-0.22%$302.0B16.4+1147.7%1466.4%1516
$923.71-0.01%$274.1B15.5-138.4%1373.0%1515
Sector avg-0.07%18.1+1560.3%2518.7%1503